The Saber's Edge: Flying Under the Radar

Last week I looked at hitting prospects who have yet to establish themselves as MLB regulars and have been sent to and from minors. This week it is the pitchers' turn to be in the spotlight. Scouting a toolsy pitcher is fairly easy, but they never seem to put it all together. Generally, these pitchers get the "frustrating" label placed on them. Some are never are able to put it together. But others do and can become staff aces.

When looking at pitching prospects, a person must remember that almost 99% of the prospects are coming up to the majors as starters. Rarely does a relief pitcher get a prospect ranking. Many failed starters do end up as great relievers (see Andrew Miller). While the player and team may think the pitcher has failed to live up to expectations, I won't today. If a pitcher is making a successful transition to the bullpen, like Toronto's Aaron Sanchez, he won't be considered. I want to focus on those pitchers who have not been able to fill a MLB role.
For this study, I looked at pitchers who were in the last five Baseball America's top 100 prospect lists and have no yet reached 60 games started. Also, I will add one to the total for every two relief appearances (RA). Looking over the list, not as many pitchers stick out, compared to the hitters, because failed prospects get quickly moved to the bullpen. Another common theme among these pitchers are injuries slowing down their development. Here are a few names who stick out.

Dylan Bundy (#2 Overall on Baseball America's 2013 ranking): It will be just interesting to follow Bundy from now until the start of the 2016 season. Bundy is currently dealing with some shoulder pain and also had Tommy John surgery in 2013. He has just not been healthy. While normally teams would just leave him in the minors to work out his issues, the Orioles can't. When they drafted Bundy, he was giving a major league contract and 2015 is his last option year. Bundy will need to be on the 25-man roster next season or pass through waivers to go back to the minors for conditioning. When the 22-year-old has thrown, it has been great. He had a 10.2 K/9 in 22 innings of work this season in AA before going on the DL. I think he will be a nice bench option at the end of 2016 drafts.

Matt Moore (#2 Overall in Baseball America's 2012 ranking): Moore's games started are just over the 60 limit, but I still feel he deserves a look. I have never been a fan of Moore. After an amazing nine innings in 2011, he skated by with some horrible core stats which were disguised by a high win total (11 in 2012 and 17 in 2013). Here are his stats from 2011 to 2014 showing his decline

Year: K/9, SwgStr%, Fastball Velocity (mph), BB/9
2011: 14.5, 14%, 95.7, 2.9
2012: 8.9, 12%, 94.4, 4.1
2013: 8.6, 10%, 92.4, 4.6
2014: 5.7, 7%, 91.5, 4.5

It is never a good sign when pitcher's strikeouts are going down and walks are headed up. Moore then had Tommy John surgery in 2014. When he returned, he really struggled and put up similar walk and strikeout numbers compared to 2014, but with a higher home run rate. After six starts he was sent back to the minors. Well, he made some huge improvements in seven minor league starts with a 12.9 K/9 and a 2.7 BB/9. He has some issues with the long ball (1.4 HR/9), but most encouraging is his velocity being up to 93-95 mph. If he is throwing that hard, he could be back to 2012 to 2013 level of production. Good, but not great. Keep an eye on how he finishes the season and if he gets a call back to the majors to get some Pitchf/x velocity readings.

Eddie Butler (#24 Overall on Baseball America's 2014 ranking): I having problems finding anything positive to say about the 24-year-old Butler. Well maybe his strikeout rate was higher than walk rate this year (5.0 K/9 vs 4.8 BB/9) … barely. His last decent season was on 2013 in AA. Since then he has struggled. According to the Baseball America's 2014 Prospect Handbook, Butler's fastball was at 95-96 mph touching 99 in 2013. He is now at 93-94 mph touching 96. He is just not the same pitcher and he is going to have to make some significant changes to be a good major league starter. Maybe he can cut it in the bullpen.

Marco Gonzales (#50 Overall on Baseball America's 2015 ranking): The 23-year-old Gonzales was making the climb up Cardinals depth charts and then the 2015 season happened. In 2014, he had 7.7 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in AAA. This season those numbers are 6.3 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. On Tuesday night, he made his first MLB start this season and lasted less than three innings and gave up four runs on seven hits.

Looking at his stats, two items stick out which could make him seem very hittable. The first his 36% GB% puts him in the bottom 25% of the league making him a fly ball pitcher. The second issue is he doesn't even average 90 mph on his fastball. A high number of squared up fly balls are going to lead to a lofty home runs rate. Here are his home run rates over the past two seasons.

Year (level): HR/9
2014 (AAA): 1.4
2014 (MLB): 1.0
2015 (AAA): 1.3
2015 (MLB): 3.4

Right now I am not interested in him until shows a significant improvement in a couple facets of his game.

Andrew Heaney (#50 Overall on Baseball America's 2015 ranking): The 24-year-old Heaney looks to be having a nice breakout season with a 3.11 ERA compared to a 5.83 ERA in 2014. The truth is he is about the same pitcher. His K/9 (6.1 vs 6.2) and BB/9 (2.1 vs 1.7) are similar. The big difference is his 1.8 HR/9 in 2014 and 0.8 HR/9 in 2015. The key will be to determine where his true talent lies. Right now, I think splitting the difference is the correct choice. Even his MLB ERA estimators agree. He has a career 4.14 FIP, 4.21 xFIP, and 4.13 SIERA to go with his 3.90 ERA. Those values (6 K/9, 2 BB/9 and 4.00 ERA) compare to the stats put up by Jered Weaver, Rick Porcello, and Tim Hudson over the past two seasons. I would not be surprised to see his owners be disappointed in 2016 as he gets overvalued.

Here is a list of the players who make the above criteria of an untracked prospect.