Farm Futures: Texas League Hitters Roundup

Our tour of the minor leagues continues this week with a trip to the Texas League to look at what some notable Double-A hitters have been up to over the first six weeks of the season. Keep in mind that with the exception of Arkansas, Tulsa and San Antonio, the league offers plenty of favorable hitting environments, particularly for home run hitters. The prospects are listed in approximate order of their value in dynasty leagues.

Alex Bregman, SS/3B, Corpus Christi (Astros): .330/.438/.693, eight HR, eight 2B, 9:14 K:BB, 2-for-3 on SB attempts in 88 at-bats.

Bregman, 22, could be in line for minor league hitter of the year honors if he keeps up this pace. He's third in the league in home runs despite measuring in below six feet and missing two weeks with a hamstring injury. Of hitters taken in last year's draft, Bregman has been the most impressive on paper, given his level of competition. Most people still prefer Dansby Swanson and Brendan Rodgers, and some even prefer Andrew Benintendi, but it's certainly easy to make a case that Bregman could be as valuable as any of them long term.

Of recent note, Bregman moved over to third base for the Hooks, prompting mass speculation as to whether he could be called up to the big leagues this year to take over at the hot corner. That's not impossible, but two things will have to happen. First, Bregman needs to continue to rake, particularly after he gets promoted to Triple-A in the coming days/weeks. Second, recently promoted Colin Moran needs to fail in his audition at third base in the big leagues. Part of that promotion may have simply been to force the issue. It gives Moran a fair shot to carve out a big league role sooner than expected, while also opening up third base at Triple-A for Bregman in the very near future. Once Bregman is bumped up to Triple-A, he and Moran could easily switch spots in July or August if Bregman is swinging a hotter bat.

Lewis Brinson, OF, Frisco (Rangers): .228/.282/.421, three HR, three 3B, seven 2B, 23:7 K:BB, 6-for-8 on SB attempts in 114 at-bats.

The Rangers' center fielder of the future is in a bit of a funk at the plate, with just two hits in his last eight games, but he should still be viewed as a prized asset in dynasty leagues. He needs to walk more, but it's awfully impressive for a tooled-out up-the-middle player who just turned 22 to be on pace for 12 homers and 25 steals while striking out less than 20 percent of the time in his first full season against Double-A pitching.

There seemed to be a good opportunity for Brinson to force his way to the majors this season, given his defense in center and Delino DeShields' regression, but Brinson would need to really heat up in the coming weeks for that to be a realistic scenario at this point. DeShields has obviously done his part, but it would probably be best for Brinson to just get a full season in the upper levels of the minor leagues before he stakes his claim to the center field job in Arlington early next year. There is five-category potential here long term, as he is just beginning to tap into his plus raw power against advanced pitching in games.

Franklin Barreto, SS, Midland (A's): .230/.282/.324, three HR, four 2B, 34:7 K:BB, 9-for-14 on SB attempts in 139 at-bats.

Barreto is probably the most disappointing hitter in the Texas League, but that disappointment stems from unrealistic expectations. He turned 20 on February 27 and is two years younger than Bregman and Brinson, so he should probably get a pass for his early struggles. His 22.8 percent K-rate is higher than the rates he posted in 2014 and 2015, but it's not so high that he shouldn't also be able to become a very productive hitter. This is a key takeaway, because it means that this situation could only require a minor tweak in approach or just a bit more luck on balls in play for Barreto to start matching last season's production.

People in baseball will often say that failure is good for certain prospects at certain stages of their development. This is because failure forces players to make adjustments that were going to be necessary at some point on their way to the big leagues. Barreto is failing right now, but it could end up being a good thing for him down the road. He is a prime buy-low candidate in dynasty leagues, especially since he is back to showing the type of speed he displayed in his days in the lower levels of the Blue Jays' system.

Alex Verdugo, OF, Tulsa (Dodgers): .269/.326/.415, five HR, four 2B, 26:10 K:BB, 2-for-6 on SB attempts in 130 at-bats.

It's starting to look like the power gains Verdugo made in the second half of last season may be sustainable. He has already matched the five homers he hit in 101 games at Low-A last year, and he has done so without sacrificing much contact -- his 18.4 percent K-rate is still very playable atop a lineup. Verdugo is even younger than Barreto, having just turned 20 last week, so the fact that he is not experiencing similar growing pains is very impressive. Still under the radar in some dynasty leagues, Verdugo has the type of safety and upside that could make him a top-20 prospect going into 2017.

Raul Mondesi, SS, Northwest Arkansas (Royals): .250/.304/.462, five HR, one 3B, five 2B, 28:8 K:BB, 11-for-12 on SB attempts in 104 at-bats.

He obviously made noise by getting busted for a positive PED test, but if that has led to his owner shopping him, this is a perfect time to buy. Mondesi's was a unique case in the fact that MLB lessened the suspension from 80 to 50 games after he made a convincing case that the positive test was an honest mistake. Even if the test had remained at 80 games, I would be inclined to buy into Mondesi's power outbreak being sustainable to a great extent when he returns from the suspension. His quick wrists generate very projectable power relative to his position, and a power surge this season actually lines up perfectly with the expected developmental track. He has been pushed very aggressively through the system, so he understandably hasn't had time to develop that in-game power at any level. Now in his second year at Double-A, everything was setting up for that breakout campaign prior to the suspension.

The development of the hit tool is more concerning for me than any PED noise. A 20/20 player at the highest level seems to be possible, but how much help will those counting stats be if they are accompanied by a .230 batting average? The questionable hit tool keeps Mondesi out of the top-50 on my latest top-200, but if he can make strides in that department when he returns he'll have a shot to open 2017 squarely in the top-50. Alcides Escobar is a free agent after this season but has a team option for 2017, which they should pick up to bridge the gap to Mondesi in 2018.

Derek Fisher, OF, Corpus Christi (Astros): .254/.355/.523, eight HR, two 3B, seven 2B, 35:21 K:BB, 4-for-8 on SB attempts in 130 at-bats.

Fisher is really heating up at the plate, with five homers in his last eight games to salvage what would have otherwise been a rough start to the season. His approach is as solid as ever, but his lack of success on the bases is a bit concerning. It remains unclear how much his power will play against big league pitching, and if it's only 15-20 homer pop, plus speed would go a long way toward him making it as an everyday player. His on-base skills are unquestioned, so he should at least be able to make it as a fourth outfielder, but it's still too soon to say if he has the all-around game to profile as a big league regular. That said, the potential for a 20/20 outfielder, even with a .255 average, is still intriguing enough for him to be a borderline top-100 guy.

Ryan Cordell, OF, Frisco (Rangers): .359/.410/.719, 10 HR, three 3B, 10 2B, 33:12 K:BB, 2-for-5 on SB attempts in 128 at-bats.

It's Cordell's world, and the rest of us are just living in it. Well, not really, but it must be nice to be able to play every position except catcher while also posting a 1.128 OPS at the plate. He has played strictly in the outfield so far this season, evenly splitting his starts across all three spots, but just last year he was starting at shortstop and third base so his versatility is unmatched in the upper levels of the minors. That versatility led to prognosticators pegging him as a super-utility player, but he appears to have a more regular role in mind. A .409 BABIP is propping up that average, and at 24 years old it's fair to wonder if he's just an elder statesman picking on less experienced pitchers, but Cordell has certainly earned placement in the top-200 for now, and could continue to climb up the rankings if he maintains these improvements to his K-rate while also sustaining his gains in the power department.

Harrison Bader, OF, Springfield (Cardinals): .364/.408/.579, seven HR, one 3B, seven 2B, 34:8 K:BB, 5-for-13 on SB attempts in 140 at-bats.

In addition to murdering Double-A pitching in his first crack at it, Bader also laid waste to short-season and full-season Low-A pitching after getting drafted in the third round last year, and he sports a career .331/.383/.544 slash line with 18 homers and 22 steals in 95 games as a pro. His numbers were supposed to normalize against more advanced pitching at Double-A, but that has not happened yet. Bader should be promoted to Triple-A in the near future, and if he continues to silence doubters there, he could even get a taste of the big leagues in August or September of this season. The one area of his game that may just not be there is the speed to steal a significant amount of bases in the big leagues, as he is just 22-for-36 (61 percent) on stolen base attempts as a pro, and he is not even facing big league batteries yet. It won't matter, however, if the bat continues carry the rest of the profile up the ladder.

Willie Calhoun, 2B, Tulsa (Dodgers): .250/.308/.394, three HR, one 3B, eight 2B, 19:9 K:BB in 132 at-bats.

It speaks to how impressive Calhoun was last year after getting drafted in the fourth round that his start to the 2016 season could be seen as a disappointment. That said, he's still making excellent contact (13.2 percent K-rate), especially for a 21-year-old in his first exposure to Double-A breaking balls. Perhaps his outstanding ability to make contact has worked against him in the early going, as he may just be making contact on a lot of pitches he'd be better off not swinging at, which would explain the .273 BABIP. This year will involve a lot of adjustments for Calhoun, but he remains ahead of schedule and one of the more promising prospects at the keystone.

Matt Chapman, 3B, Midland (A's): .250/.358/.507, nine HR, one 3B, six 2B, 43:20 K:BB, 3-for-6 on SB attempts in 136 at-bats.

Chapman certainly has his supporters, but I do not count myself among them. To stand out at Double-A as a 23-year-old slugger at an infield corner, especially at Midland, there should be very few apparent holes in a player's offensive game. That is not the case with Chapman, who is on track for his third straight season with a batting average of .250 or lower while sporting a career-worst 27 percent K-rate. He has a very promising career ahead occupying the short side of a platoon at third base, as he just obliterates lefties, but Chapman does not have the look of an everyday player. Those in deeper leagues should use his favorable hitting conditions and power output to sell him to the highest bidder.

OTHERS OF NOTE

Paul DeJong, 3B, Springfield (Cardinals): .238/.324/.460, six HR, one 3B, eight 2B, 45:15 K:BB in 126 at-bats.

Bubba Starling, OF, Northwest Arkansas (Royals): .210/.300/.403, four HR, 12 2B, 48:12 K:BB, 7-for-7 on SB attempts in 124 at-bats.

Ronald Guzman, 1B, Frisco (Rangers): .322/.393/.529, five HR, one 3B, eight 2B, 29:12 K:BB in 121 at-bats.

Bruce Caldwell, 2B/3B, Springfield (Cardinals): .309/.398/.536, six HR, one 3B, five 2B, 29:17 K:BB in 110 at-bats.

Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Corpus Christi (Astros): .267/.350/.408, three HR, eight 2B, 29:16 K:BB, 10-for-15 on SB attempts in 120 at-bats.

Orlando Calixte, OF, Northwest Arkansas (Royals): .291/.336/.419, two HR, nine 2B, 27:9 K:BB, 12-for-15 on SB attempts in 117 at-bats.

Jose Rondon, SS, San Antonio (Padres): .261/.304/.348, one HR, seven 2B, 19:7 K:BB, 4-for-7 on SB attempts in 115 at-bats.

J.D. Davis, 3B, Corpus Christi (Astros): .225/.310/.387, three HR, nine 2B, 30:14 K:BB in 111 at-bats.

Auston Bousfield, OF, San Antonio (Padres): .212/.324/.327, two HR, one 3B, five 2B, 25:17 K:BB, 8-for-9 on SB attempts in 113 at-bats.

Carson Kelly, C, Springfield (Cardinals): .253/.308/.343, two HR, three 2B, 28:6 K:BB in 99 at-bats.