Baseball Draft Kit: Keeper League Targets

Finding market inefficiencies in the fantasy baseball player pool is becoming more and more difficult.

By the time most drafts and auctions roll around, there are few true sleepers on the board as word has gotten out regarding most breakout candidates. That's especially true in long-term keeper leagues where the player pool has been thinned with the protection of many top talents. Factor in the inflation that's inherent after several years in a keeper league, and it can be a struggle to land a top-150 player at a price that represents a significant bargain the following year.

The purpose of this article will be to pinpoint targets in keeper leagues, ones which profile as profit candidates this upcoming season and strong holdovers from 2017 to 2018.

Domingo Santana, OF

Yes, strikeouts are a big problem. His medical record is growing long, too, although the biggest concern with Santana may be his defense. Santana has a strong arm but lumbers in the outfield, grading out poorly in right. Despite those shortcoming, there is significant offensive upside here, so much so that the rebuilding Brewers would be wise to give Santana a full season to make his case to be part of the infrastructure. The power is near elite, with Santana posting a 38.5 percent hard-hit rate last season and ranking second among all hitters in exit velocity gains from 2015, per Fangraphs. Still just 24, Santana owns a 10.9 percent walk rate for his career and that power/patience combo will go a long way in negating the deficiencies in his game. Plus, Milwaukee doesn't seem to care about anyone else striking out, so why would they single out Santana? To his credit, Santana improved his strikeout rate in every month of the 2016 season from May on. Even if his price pushes up to the $8-10 range in keeper league auctions, there's still room to profit at that price.

Kevin Kiermaier, OF

Whereas last spring Kiermaier was probably overvalued, this year a case can be made that Kiermaier is being discounted a little too much. Injuries limited Kiermaier to 105 games last season, but he still bested his tallies in home runs and stolen bases while more than doubling his walk rate from the previous year. He worked his way into the No. 2 spot in the batting order and stayed there for the final two-plus months. Kiermaier didn't hit for a great average in 2016, but he puts bat to ball with consistency and runs well, and those abilities portend a rebound in BABIP and in turn, batting average. Perhaps most encouragingly, the wrist injury didn't sap his power, as Kiermaier went on to hit five home runs over the final month. With 15 steals seemingly his floor and some sneaky power upside, Kiermaier fits the bill as a potential four-category difference maker in mixed leagues. Test the waters for a trade if he's already owned, and if he's not, set aside $10-13 for a player who could return twice that.

Greg Allen, OF

Speed and approach. Repeat after me: Speed and approach. It's rare to find a prospect that has either standout power or (as in Allen's case) plus speed to accompany this kind of highly advanced approach. The cherry on top is the fact that Allen does it from both sides of the plate, showing a discerning eye, patience and coverage skills as a switch-hitter. He is already entering his age-24 season and may very well head back to Double-A to begin the 2017 campaign. Additionally, he packs little power to speak of and lacks big-time pedigree, but Allen looks more ready than organizational mate Bradley Zimmer for a regular role in center field with the big club. Don't worry if Allen isn't ranked as high on real-life prospect lists; the speed and approach will give him a nice fantasy floor against advanced competition. If he's unowned in your keeper league, Allen should go for a dollar or two in the endgame of the auction or in the first couple rounds of the reserve draft.

Vlad Guerrero, Jr., 3B

Chances are, Guerrero is already owned in your keeper league, but that doesn't mean he shouldn't be on your target list. The price will be high, but Guerrero is looking like a worthy centerpiece in any long-term rebuilding effort. And any team looking for the most bang for its prospect buck in an in-season trade, this is your man; Guerrero could return up to three top-150 players in an in-season deal once the buyers and sellers have been clearly separated. The talent is there for Guerrero to establish himself as the top prospect in baseball at the age of 18, especially once the likes of Yoan Moncada, Andrew Benintendi and Alex Reyes officially graduate. A lack of proximity is the only thing holding back Guerrero's value, but he could reach the majors by 2018. Buy the skills, and make sure you buy premium skills if paying top dollar. Guerrero fits the bill.

Travis Shaw, 3B

Shaw, friend of the RotoWire SXM show, landed in a favorable position with a December trade to Milwaukee. As maligned as he was with Boston, losing his job late in the year, he still had a reasonably productive season, earning as much as guys like Brett Gardner, Jung Ho Kang and Sean Rodriguez. Shaw struggled against lefties and may be platooned fairly heavily, but if he starts at third base against all right-handers as expected, he should approach 500 at-bats. The power is useful and considering the entire team seems to have the green light on the basepaths, 15-steal upside is there as well. It's easy to get lost in the shuffle at third base and in the corner infield in fantasy given the plethora of impact bats, but Shaw should make for a decent consolation prize for those who miss out on the big names. Best of all, he should come at a bargain basement price.

Mike Foltynewicz, SP

Foltynewicz's growth in 2016 has quelled talks of a bullpen assignment, at least for the time being. The right-hander continued to throw his fastball in the mid-90s and showed more confidence in his secondary pitches. He located them better than ever before, shaving his walk rate to 6.7 percent while improving his strikeout, swinging-strike, groundball and hard-hit rates. The longball remains an issue, and there are health concerns, but Foltynewicz turned a corner in 2016 and is a true breakout candidate entering 2017. The potential for extreme spring helium is here, but at a single-digit price tag, Foltynewicz could return plus value for several years to come.

Robbie Ray, SP

Make no mistake; there are red flags in Ray's profile. However, you simply don't find 200 strikeouts at his current price. Ray's walk rate slipped again last season and he allowed a lot of hard contact when he did put the ball in the strike zone, but even with all the free passes and hard-hit balls, his FIP was still more than a run lower than his ERA. Ray gained a tick in velocity on all of his pitches and his excellent strikeout rate was largely supported by a swinging-strike rate just south of 12 percent. He improved his groundball rate for a third straight year and should have a rotation spot all year barring a Patrick Corbin-level implosion. Until he can improve his walk rate and cut back on the homers, Ray will be best utilized as a road streaming option, but he was one of just 12 pitchers to reach 200 strikeouts last season and if there was ever a year to bet on a breakout from Ray, this would be it.

Robert Gsellman, SP

It's easy to forget about Gsellman given the slew of talented arms in the Mets' rotation, and the presence of another sleeper candidate on the team in Seth Lugo. But Gsellman is quite good, with the peripherals supporting Gsellman's ratios last season. He has an intriguing arsenal of pitches, with his heavy sinker, slider, curveball, change repertoire resulting in a lot of whiffs and a lot of groundballs. That combination of strikeouts and groundballs is ideal as it means there's not as much left up to variance. Also, his track record in the minors suggests there's better control to come. The WHIP and lack of job security may scare off some, but that only makes this a better buying opportunity.

Brandon Finnegan, SP

Most will want nothing to do with the Reds' rotation, and understandably so, with the nightmarish home park and awful bullpen. Plus, with Finnegan's ratios he may seem better left for NL-only leagues, but looking deeper, there is reason for optimism. Knowing he was at a make-or-break stage in his development as a starter, Finnegan worked to refine his changeup grip last season. He began incorporating the pitch much more down the stretch and saw tremendous results, as an increased gap in velocity between his fastball and change led to a far greater strikeout rate. Also, after he threw 172 innings last season, it's reasonable to think he could approach 200 for the rebuilding Reds.

Matt Bush, RP

Grabbing late-inning relievers with elite skills in the reserve rounds can yield big returns -- just ask those who plucked Seung Hwan Oh and/or Kelvin Herrera last year. Sam Dyson should have decent job security entering the season, but those who grab and hold Bush could be sitting with a highly valuable, cheap closer at this time next year.

This article appears in the 2017 RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide. You can order a copy here.