Mound Musings: Know When to Hold 'Em?

Last week we looked at a few pitchers who have gotten off to poor starts in the 2017 season. Some of them will probably bounce back and bring their numbers into line with preseason expectations, while others might be a drag on your pitching staff all year. Some of the most difficult decisions for a fantasy owner include knowing when to ride out that early season rough stretch and knowing when it's best to cut your losses and move on. There's a flipside to that coin. What about the big surprises in the first few weeks of a season? There will always be guys posting eye-popping numbers on the waiver wire, and you have to try to identify the real deals while ignoring the time bombs.

Evaluating forgotten pitchers posting unbelievable numbers:

Let's get this out there right from the beginning – most major surprises at this point in the season are surprises for good reason. Especially with young, unproven pitchers, teams are still trying to protect their brightest prospects, and will resist, if possible, starting their arbitration clocks. If the options are limited and the team is competitive, they might bring a top prospect up and hope for the best. However, the vast majority of starting pitching prospects arriving in April and May will be less valuable, marginal arms.

Then there are the veteran surprises. There is a bit more reason for optimism with a pitcher who has been up (and oftentimes back and forth down to the minors) with the big club for a few years. Something might have changed. Be especially open-minded when the pitcher has, at times, been exposed to major league competition for two to three years, or has changed teams (the "changes in latitudes" angle) or has added (or refined to the level of reliability) a new pitch to his repertoire. Two other potentially suggestive factors would be a solid pedigree – he was well thought of at some point – and a history of injuries that could now be in the rearview mirror.

Below is a list of six starting pitchers the typical fantasy owner probably overlooked – understandably – on draft day. If you picked up a couple of these guys, it's been a nice ride so far. Now, it's time to look more closely at some of the biggest surprises to date. There are certainly others who qualify, but these guys are at top of the list.

Here is our staff of standouts, and what to expect going forward:

• Jason Vargas, 1.03 WHIP, 2.03 ERA (Royals) – Here's one of those more experienced pitchers. However, Vargas is 34 and he's in his fourth season with the Royals, albeit he's returning from Tommy John surgery that cost him most of the 2015 and 2016 seasons, and he has adjusted his release point, altering his mechanics. He is the prototypical soft-tosser, averaging just 86 mph with his fastball, and possessing an exceptional change-up coupled with great command. Vargas is a flyball pitcher, which plays well in his home park (and he is particularly effective at home) at least partially because the outfield defense is a strength of the team. It's a bit presumptive to say Vargas has found a new level of effectiveness, so he makes a good "sell high" candidate. He won't provide a lot of strikeouts, and his peripherals are likely to even out over time, so while he's a decent back-of-the-rotation type, he's not an ace. Verdict: Jury is still out.

• Antonio Senzatela, 1.16 WHIP, 3.31 ERA (Rockies) – You could pretty easily consider a young, generally undrafted starting pitcher with a 6-1 record (along with a 3.31 ERA, and a 1.16 WHIP) a significant surprise. The Rockies are enjoying the early returns from Senzatela, but with only 35 innings above High-A ball and pitching in Coors Field, prudence is advised. Don't get me wrong. There are a lot of things to like about Senzatela – he has a good live arm, and a repertoire that shows at least a reasonable chance to keep major league hitters in check much of the time. That's the rub. Much of the time. In another home park, I'd probably be more bullish on him. He can lose command at times, running up his pitch counts and allowing a few extra baserunners. Extra baserunners are problematic at Coors when a lower strikeout rate can fail to eliminate them, especially when the homerun ball can be a thorn in the pitcher's side. There will be good and bad, making him a possible match-up candidate in deeper leagues, but he'll be risky in your rotation. Verdict: Fold 'em.

• Lance McCullers, 1.10 WHIP, 2.65 ERA (Astros) – I have occasionally been accused of gushing over pitchers who really catch my eye. I plead guilty. That said, I offer fair warning; gush incoming! I expected McCullers to possibly take a step forward this year, but he has broken into a gallop. I love breaking pitchers, so hurlers who have good ones in their arsenal do catch my attention. The sharper the break, the more I drool. The thing about McCullers is he throws his breaking stuff so hard, yet it remains crisp and doesn't flatten out. With a mid-90s fastball, he still generates enough variance in speeds so hitters have a hard time timing his deliveries. He still gets a bit erratic with his command – understandable with so much movement – but he should continue to pile up strikeouts (he has 60 in 54 innings). McCullers is still maturing so a rough stretch is possible now and then, but he's turning into the type of pitcher to which they're referring when they say, "Swing hard in case you hit it," so I am buying shares. Verdict: Hold 'em.

• Michael Wacha, 1.15 WHIP, 3.19 ERA (Cardinals) – If you look back at Wacha's career, it's almost like a tale of two pitchers. There are stretches where he looked like a staple in the Cardinals rotation for many years, and there were times – including much of last season – where there were questions about whether he could stay in St. Louis, let alone near the top of their pitching staff. In fact, there was speculation this offseason regarding a possible shift to the bullpen. I was one of those who got pretty excited about his 2015 season (at least most of it) where he went 17-7 and a 3.38 ERA with an acceptable 7.6 K/9. Unfortunately, toward the end of that season he got all out of Wacha and it carried over throughout last year. Add in some nagging shoulder problems (probably attributable to his mechanical issues) and things looked bleak. Now, watching this year, his motion is much better, his velocity and strikeout rate have jumped up a bit and just maybe the best is yet to come. Verdict: Hold 'em.

• A.J. Griffin, 1.02 WHIP, 3.15 ERA (Rangers) – Here's another soft-tosser (just an 86 mph fastball) with a strong curveball that makes him tough, especially against right-handers, when he commands the zone. He makes a good swing man, which limits his exposure but when taking the ball every five days, he tends to struggle. As with most finesse pitchers, Griffin can't afford too many extra baserunners, and in his case, it's even more critical because he is a flyball pitcher prone to allowing home runs. The extra baserunners turn into big innings when the ball flies out of the yard. Now, add the fact that warmer weather as spring turns into summer complicates things in Texas where the hotter the day, the higher they fly. When Tyson Ross (maybe mid-June) and Cole Hamels (hopefully early-July) are healthy, Griffin could find himself in a long relief and spot starter role. That makes him a sell-high guy today. Verdict: Fold 'em.

• Alex Wood, 1.01 WHIP, 2.27 ERA (Dodgers) – I can't explain Wood. I guess you could say his unorthodox pitching motion (understatement) makes it harder for hitters to pick up the ball. This year, his fastball is topping out at 93 mph, up over four mph from just a couple of years ago, and his strikeout rate is way up (12.1/9) with no appreciable increase in walk rate. The Dodgers have even gone to a six-man rotation to keep him in the mix. With the need to manage the innings of top prospect Julio Urias and persistent injury concerns up and down their starting staff, there is good reason to keep him stretched out. Unfortunately, Wood is one of those injury concerns. Use him while he's healthy as it might not last. Verdict: Jury is still out.
  
  
  Some Other Notable Rotation Ramblings:
  
  
  
  • There was another pitcher I seriously considered including in the above list. The A's Andrew Triggs has gotten off to a strong start, too, but I keep seeing chinks in his armor. He's all about deception, but hitters appear to be figuring him out. He has good control but his pedestrian stuff makes him vulnerable.

  • I really wanted to include Arizona's Patrick Corbin on the list, but a couple of less appealing outings tarnished his numbers somewhat. Despite his lackluster 4.38 ERA and some residual inconsistency, I continue to see strong signs that he's finding his groove and could be a useful starter going forward.

  • Readers sometimes ask me about rather obscure prospects who potentially could help at the back of their rotation, so I'm going to throw out a deep league name. I liked some of what I saw of Seattle's Chase De Jong. He was sent back down, but he has nice breaking pitches and just has to throw first pitch strikes.

  • For quite some time I have been afflicted with an interest in Trevor Cahill. The problem is, he is one of those guys who looks good one day and pretty ugly the next, but he didn't seem comfortable in the bullpen. He's on the DL but with an improved changeup and a new home in San Diego, he may be worth a look.

  • High on the list of "whoa" performers so far this year has to be Danny Salazar. The Cleveland righty has displayed the much-anticipated strikeouts (62 in just 41 innings) but too many baserunners and a disturbing nine home runs have bloated his ERA. I still expect things to normalize if he refines his command.

  • Another guy who (marginally) caught my eye in his last start was Miami righty Jose Urena. The Marlins have a brutal rotation – even worse with Wei-Yin Chen on the DL – and Urena didn't look too bad against a heavy-hitting Astros lineup. He's not going to be a strikeout guy, but I liked that he worked inside.
    
  
  Endgame Odyssey:

  We can add the Yankees' Aroldis Chapman to the growing list of injured closers. He has rotator cuff woes, which used to be considered very serious, but initial reports are that he may only miss a few weeks. Dellin Betances owners get some bonus saves. Across town, Jeurys Familia was found to have a blood clot in his throwing shoulder. This could be a season-ender, so Addison Reed is once again a must own. Moving to Seattle, Edwin Diaz has been removed as the closer after some erratic outings including four walks while retiring just one hitter last Monday. If he irons out his mechanics, he may get another chance, but it could be a committee perhaps lead by former closer Steve Cishek or Tony Zych for the immediate future. We are already hearing rumors of a potential fire sale in Kansas City, but even before that happens, Kelvin Herrera has been a bit shaky. Joakim Soria could be a viable pick-up just in case Herrera struggles longer term or gets dealt. The Washington bullpen received a much needed boost with Shawn Kelley and Koda Glover coming back last weekend, but don't bet on the problem being solved just yet. Kelley will likely get save chances when available, but they still need a more permanent solution. The Brewers pulled the plug on Neftali Feliz, at least temporarily. Feliz was converting saves, albeit with some tense moments, but he was also coughing up home runs and taking losses when pitching in nonsave situations. Corey Knebel is probably going to be the primary benefactor, but I think we might see Feliz again if he can get his feet on the ground.