Over the last 18 years, I've come out ahead. My overall record is 44 for 79 (with one push) for 55.7 percent. My best bet each season is 15-13 (I had multiple biggest bets some years). I'm a little better on bets of $100 or more (I vary my bet size to emphasize how strongly I feel about the pick) where I'm 12-9. I'm most impressive on a weighted or cash basis, where I've been correct 60.1 percent of the time ($2,900 in winning bets, $1,925 in losers - not factoring in the vig).
However, I've been in a big slump going 1-7 the past two years. When I started writing this story in 2000 my idea was to see if you could be successful on these bets by sticking to some basic principals similar to investing in the stock market. While all kinds of new data has emerged and the stock market has seen some changes, the basic principles of Value Investing still work. Similarly, could we take basic sabrmetrical principles