Over/Under Win Total Bets for 2018: Fading the Humidor, Tigers & Padres
Over/Under Win Total Bets for 2018: Fading the Humidor, Tigers & Padres
It's time to take a look at the 2018 MLB season from a wagering perspective. I'm a big fan of the season win total bets ever since I started making them in person in Las Vegas back in the late 1990s. It's a good exercise before the start of each season not only to make predictions on where you think the teams will finish, but also test those against the conventional wisdom expressed through money wagered in sportsbooks.

Over the last 18 years, I've come out ahead. My overall record is 44 for 79 (with one push) for 55.7 percent. My best bet each season is 15-13 (I had multiple biggest bets some years). I'm a little better on bets of $100 or more (I vary my bet size to emphasize how strongly I feel about the pick) where I'm 12-9. I'm most impressive on a weighted or cash basis, where I've been correct 60.1 percent of the time ($2,900 in winning bets, $1,925 in losers - not factoring in the vig).

However, I've been in a big slump going 1-7 the past two years. When I started writing this story in 2000 my idea was to see if you could be successful on these bets by sticking to some basic principals similar to investing in the stock market. While all kinds of new data has emerged and the stock market has seen some changes, the basic principles of Value Investing still work. Similarly, could we take basic sabrmetrical principles

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Peter Schoenke
Peter Schoenke is the president and co-founder of RotoWire.com. He's been elected to the hall of fame for both the Fantasy Sports Trade Association and Fantasy Sports Writers Association and also won the Best Fantasy Baseball Article on the Internet in 2005 from the FSWA. He roots for for the Minnesota Twins, Vikings and T-Wolves.
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