Regan's Rumblings: 10 Storylines to Follow

Regan's Rumblings: 10 Storylines to Follow

This article is part of our Regan's Rumblings series.

With Opening Day's arrival, let's look at 10 interesting, and sometimes surprising, moves that broke this week and what the related fantasy impact could be.

Dustin Fowler to Triple-A, Boog Powell starting in center

It's still weird to me that Boog Powell isn't related to Boog Powell, the Orioles legend turned BBQ entrepreneur. Anyway, after hitting .222/.308/.289 this spring, Powell won the job over Fowler, who was even worse at .222/.245/.267. Powell got some points for hitting .282/.358/.402 in 135 big-league plate appearances last year, and he did hit .340/.416/.490 in Triple-A, so the A's obviously hope for a bit more than he's showed this spring. Fowler is the clear CF of the future, but after missing half of last year with a horrific knee injury, he's probably still getting his game back. I can easily see Fowler spending a month in Triple-A to get things right and then supplanting Powell in center field. Powell offers nothing in terms of power potential, and maybe in a full season he steals a dozen bases, so limit rostering him to AL-only and deeper mixed leagues.

Amir Garrett benefits from bad weather

The postponement of the Reds' opener in Washington eliminates an off day and opens a start for Garrett. A former top prospect, Garrett had an excellent spring, posting a 3.18 ERA and excellent 21:4 K:BB in 17 innings. Garrett was, well, awful last year. In 70.2 big league innings, he somehow allowed 23 home runs with a 5.1 BB/9. The result

With Opening Day's arrival, let's look at 10 interesting, and sometimes surprising, moves that broke this week and what the related fantasy impact could be.

Dustin Fowler to Triple-A, Boog Powell starting in center

It's still weird to me that Boog Powell isn't related to Boog Powell, the Orioles legend turned BBQ entrepreneur. Anyway, after hitting .222/.308/.289 this spring, Powell won the job over Fowler, who was even worse at .222/.245/.267. Powell got some points for hitting .282/.358/.402 in 135 big-league plate appearances last year, and he did hit .340/.416/.490 in Triple-A, so the A's obviously hope for a bit more than he's showed this spring. Fowler is the clear CF of the future, but after missing half of last year with a horrific knee injury, he's probably still getting his game back. I can easily see Fowler spending a month in Triple-A to get things right and then supplanting Powell in center field. Powell offers nothing in terms of power potential, and maybe in a full season he steals a dozen bases, so limit rostering him to AL-only and deeper mixed leagues.

Amir Garrett benefits from bad weather

The postponement of the Reds' opener in Washington eliminates an off day and opens a start for Garrett. A former top prospect, Garrett had an excellent spring, posting a 3.18 ERA and excellent 21:4 K:BB in 17 innings. Garrett was, well, awful last year. In 70.2 big league innings, he somehow allowed 23 home runs with a 5.1 BB/9. The result was a 7.39 ERA, and he wasn't really on the radar as a potential rotation option headed into camp this year. The spring results, however, speak for themselves, and if the control improvements are for real, Garrett could be a bit of a sleeper this year. There's a chance that this could be a one-shot deal, as Brandon Finnegan could be ready to return from a biceps injury as early as April 9, but given Finnegan has a mixed track record himself, should Garrett fare well in his first start, there's a good chance he gets more opportunities.

Jordan Hicks bypasses Double-A … and Triple-A!

Despite being just 21 (barely) and without a single inning above High-A, Hicks shockingly made the Cardinals' Opening Day roster. This spring, Hicks posted a 2.35 ERA and 8:1 K:BB in 7.2 innings, and apparently that was enough. The Cardinals headed into Opening Day with Dominic Leone as their de factor closer, given Luke Gregerson will miss a week or two with a hamstring injury, but then signed Greg Holland to a one-year deal. Hicks has spent most of his minor league career as a starting pitcher, but his success has been limited, including a 95:45 K:BB in 105 innings in the minors last year. Hicks will work out of the bullpen in St. Louis, and the 2015 third-round pick seems likely to be a reliever long term. Hicks was reportedly clocked as high as 102 mph with his fastball this year, and he showed good velocity this spring.

Andrew Toles sent down … for Joc Pederson???

On the surface, this move seems indefensible. Looking deeper, it makes a lot of sense. Toles, recovering from a major knee injury, has had a great camp, hitting .283/.286/.566 in 53 plate appearances. The lack of plate discipline that has plagued him was still there (15:1 K:BB), but Toles outperformed Joc Pederson, he of the .148/.246/.259 slash this spring. However, given Matt Kemp's surprising spring and 40-pound weight loss, he will be pretty much the everyday left fielder, leaving Toles as a potential fourth outfielder. Because the team preferred Toles to play every day coming off the injury, giving him time in Triple-A makes a lot of sense. Come May, should Kemp be struggling or should the organization find a trade partner, Toles will get his chance. The Dodgers also need to see whether Pederson is going to be a part of their future, so despite his not being an everyday player initially, expect him to get 3-4 starts a week in LF and CF.

Carson Fulmer, MLB starting pitcher

Fulmer battled veteran hurler Hector Santiago for the No. 5 starting job, and the rookie won it despite an 11.81 spring ERA and even uglier 9:13 K:BB in 10.2 innings. Meanwhile, Santiago posted a 2.25 ERA and 18:7 K:BB in 16 innings, but given the White Sox are in full rebuild mode, they are looking to see what they have in the 2015 first-round pick. Fulmer has struggled with his control throughout his pro career, and in two big-league stints covering 35 innings, Fulmer has posted an ugly 5.40 ERA and 29:20 K:BB over 35 innings. Fulmer has done nothing to suggest he's going to be much of a fantasy asset this season, but because his draft status and the fact he misses bats, Fulmer is intriguing in deeper formats, though the risk is quite high.

Giants go with the 31-year-old over the 24-year-old

Steven Duggar headed into camp as a 24-year-old with designs on the center-field job. After a hot start, Duggar fell off quickly and wound up batting .236/.323/.491. Opening Day center fielder Austin Jackson hit .310/.383/.357, and with his excellent defense, he won the job. Of course, it doesn't hurt that he's seven years older than Duggar in an organization that values experience over youth, and arguably, talent. Jackson looks to be a solid DFS play against LHP, against whom he will lead off this year after batting .352/.439/.574 against them in 2017. Jackson, 31, has seen his speed disappear since he turned 29, and he has just seven home runs in 521 PA the last two years, so it's tough to see him accruing any fantasy value outside of very deep formats this year. Jackson did post a 10.4 BB% and solid 20.1 K% last year, so shouldn't be completely ignored, but I'd bet on Duggar leading the team in CF PA this year.

Brad Boxberger wins the Arizona closer job

Archie Bradley is the best reliever in the Arizona bullpen, but I'm actually OK with this move from a baseball perspective. Being able to utilize Bradley in the seventh and/or eighth innings in a tight game against the team's best hitters makes a lot of sense. Bradley could get a save here and there, but Boxberger is the guy. Boxberger had a strong spring, allowing just one run in six innings with a 7:1 K:BB a year after he put up a 3.38 ERA last year in 29.1 innings with the Rays, including a 12.3 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9. If Boxberger can minimize the damage from walks and home runs, he can be a top-10 closer potentially. Bradley still has value in deeper leagues given his three-category dominance (ERA, WHIP, K), and should Boxberger falter, Bradley would seem to be in line for the closer role unless Japanese import Yoshihisa Hirano has something to say about it.

Ronald Acuna turns down $30 million … reportedly

Acuna did his part to nail down an everyday role this spring, batting .432/.519/.727 with four homers and four steals across 52 plate appearances. In was inevitable, though, that Acuna would open the season in Triple-A given the valuable extra year of team control the Braves would get by delaying his debut until April 13. Meanwhile, the Braves will go with an outfield of Preston Tucker, Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis. Inciarte isn't going anywhere, so either Tucker or Markakis will be in a bench role in a couple weeks. This week it was reported that he declined a $30 million contract offer (he denied even receiving the offer). Of course, that would have put him in the big leagues immediately and maybe it still happens, but for now, we'll have to hope he doesn't get hurt in Triple-A before he comes up. With one of baseball's top farm systems about to start producing top big-league talent (I love 3B Austin Riley and their young pitching), the Braves will be a force in the NL East in short order.

Shohei Ohtani makes the team despite ugly spring

Not only did Ohtani break camp with a 27.00 ERA, 4.16 WHIP and .107 batting average, the ERA also doesn't include some awful outings against minor leaguers and a 3-IP, 6-ER outing against a team from the Mexican League. It's a bit surprising the Angels didn't start him in Triple-A, as they could have gained an additional year of team control, and it's certainly a move that could have been justified. Perhaps there was some sort of side agreement that the team wouldn't do so. Anyway, Ohtani will start Sunday against the A's, so at least he breaks in with what looks to be a favorable matchup. What's this all mean? First, his ADP dropped like a rock, and second, he might be a buy-low candidate if you believe that his 93-96 mph will start to yield better results as he gets more comfortable. I just don't think he's going to be a hitter in the big leagues. It's not just the 3-for-28 stat line, but there are holes in his swing that need to be closed. Ideally that would happen in Triple-A, but that's not likely to happen. I think he will be fine as a pitcher, perhaps eventually Yu Darvish level fine, but we've clearly seen he's not ready to pitch at that level.

Derek Fisher makes the Astros roster

Fisher probably only made the roster due to Yulieski Gurriel's hand injury and five-game suspension, but after hitting .300/.403/.480 this spring, he at least hit enough to deserve the spot. Fisher is an intriguing fantasy option after hitting 26 home runs with 19 stolen bases overall last year. He also posted a 10.2 BB% in the big leagues last year to somewhat offset his .212 batting average. Fisher probably will play fairly often against RHP early in the year, probably at the expense of Jake Marisnick, though the Astros' plan for Fisher remains unclear. Once Gurriel returns, it would seem likely that Fisher is shipped back to Triple-A unless he makes a huge early impression. To make things worse for Fisher, the team's No. 1 prospect, Kyle Tucker, is also an outfielder, and though Tucker just turned 21 in January, all he did this spring was bat .409/.438/.818, indicating he's probably not that far away from the big leagues. I see the most likely scenario as Fisher being traded this year to a team willing to use him as an everyday player.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
David Regan
David Regan is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, including the 2015 Baseball Article of the Year and the 2010 Baseball Writer of the Year.
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