Regan's Rumblings: 10 Things I Didn't See Coming

Written by

Updated on May 18, 2018 5:52AM EST

In many ways, baseball is very predictable. We knew Mike Trout would be the best player in the game. We knew Aaron Judge would hit a lot of home runs while piling up the strikeouts, and we were pretty sure that Max Scherzer and Chris Sale would be among the league's elite starters barring injury. Here though, are some things I certainly didn't see coming:

That the Dodgers would be this bad

For a team that reached Game 7 of the World Series and had no major personnel changes in the offseason, expectations were certainly higher. At 16-26, the Dodgers are a loss away from falling into last place. What has gone wrong? Depending on which Dodgers fans you ask, it's Dave Roberts, it's Andrew Friedman and the front office, it's injuries, and it's just a slow start. Certainly, injuries to the likes of Justin Turner (hand), Corey Seager (Tommy John surgery), Clayton Kershaw (biceps) and to a lesser extent, Logan Forsythe, have played a part. I tend to think it's injuries and simply guys not performing up to expectations. After a breakout season that saw him hit .288/.354/.496 with 21 home runs and 17 stolen bases, Chris Taylor is at .234/.305/.415 this year. Yasiel Puig last year had career highs in home runs (28) and stolen bases (15), but he's hitting a miserable .210/.270/.314, though with home runs in back-to-back games, he may be heating up. The Dodgers have also slashed $53 million off their payroll in anticipation of resetting their luxury tax penalty in advance of the historic 2018 free agent class and that's another factor. Best case scenario this year with Seager out: The rest of the team heats up, Kershaw comes back healthy, the 2017 version of the bullpen returns, and the Dodgers make a run at a Wild Card spot where Kershaw shakes off his playoff demons and beats the Braves to advance to the NLDS where they again beat the Nationals and Cubs to advance to the World Series against the Yankees. Yeah wishful thinking. In reality, this is a bridge year.

Gerrit Cole moving to the AL and getting exponentially better

Is it just that he learned a lot from last year's disappointing 4.26 ERA season? Is it being around Justin Verlander and a championship-contending team? Typically, we don't see anywhere near this level of improvement in a pitcher moving to the AL. Cole is 4-1 with a 1.75 ERA, 13.6 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. When you consider that his strikeout rate has never been above 9.0 in a season prior to 2018 and that he already has five double-digit strikeout games this year (two all last season), it's all the more remarkable. His stuff is so filthy right now that Cole has been able to overcome a career-low 29.9 GB percentage (it's 46.5 percent for his career). He's relying more on his breaking stuff this year than in seasons' past, throwing curves and sliders nearly 40 percent of the time versus less than 30 percent of the time in years' past. Combine that with an improved change and a fastball that averages close to 96 mph with movement, and you have a Cy Young contender. His swinging strike rate is also an elite 16 percent. The only thing that gives me some pause is that Cole had three DL stints in 2016, with an elbow issue that didn't require surgery ultimately ending his season.

Kyle Gibson improving his K/9 from 6.7 to 10.1

There probably aren't too many projections out there for Gibson that don't have him with an ERA in the mid-to-high 4s with a strikeout rate in the 6.5 K/9 range. Gibson entered the season with a 4.70 career ERA in 127 starts, so that's enough of a sample size to figure that this is who he is: a No. 5 starter at best. This year, Gibson's control has taken a step backward (4.4 BB/9), but his ERA sits at 3.43 and even more surprising is how many bats the former first-rounder is missing. Gibson has a 10.1 K/9 and a 12.4 percent swinging strike rate, both easily career highs. His groundball rate is down a little, and Gibson's hard-hit rate has risen from 35.8 percent to 40 percent, but the missed bats are keeping his ERA down, as is a .265 BABIP. It's easy to predict that Gibson will decline over the course of the year, but what if he doesn't?

Another Kyle (Kyle Freeland) dominating … at Coors Field

YEAR	K/9	BB/9	ERA	WHIP
2017	6.2	3.6	4.10	1.49
2018	8.4	3.2	3.42	1.18

Pretty nice year-over-year progress for Freeland so far this season. The 1.40 ERA at home is even more surprising, though he was also a bit better at home in 2017. Freeland is generating fewer ground balls but he's taken his hard-hit rate from 32 percent to 26.1 percent and his swinging strike rate has improved from 7.5 percent to 10.4 percent. He's throwing his cutter more this year, and it's graded out as a plus pitch. The biggest improvement has come against left-handed hitters, as the southpaw has held them to a .146 BA versus a .283 mark last year. Significant progress. This is a pretty small sample size, but recall that Freeland was once a No. 8 overall pick (2014). That sort of pedigree could mean this isn't just a nice run.

Ozzie Albies having 13 home runs on May 16

Albies started showing some pop last year with a combined 15 home runs between Triple-A and the Braves, but he's still a guy who averaged one home run per 97 minor league at-bats. This year that rate is … one per 13.8. Albies is nowhere to be found among the Statcast leaders in exit velocity or longest home runs, but a home run is a home run for fantasy owners, of course. You don't need me to tell you that Albies keeping up a 45 to 50 home run pace is unlikely, but 25? Sure. 30? Perhaps. 40? Not seeing it. He's hitting the ball a bit harder and in the air with more frequency, but nothing dramatic stands out in his metrics. Pitchers should eventually adjust and give him less to hit, and, given his 4.6 BB percentage, that could cause problems. Maybe Albies really is the "new Jose Altuve," but let's see how he comes out of the inevitable slump.

Brandon Belt finally fulfilling his potential

Belt is one decimal point from having three career 4+ WAR seasons so he hasn't been a complete disaster, but after reaching the big leagues in 2011, we keep hoping for that breakout .300-30-100 type season. With a pretty swing and a 11.9 percent BB percent for his career, he has that sort of upside. This year, Belt is off to a great start, batting .295/.405/.546 with eight home runs. Belt is putting the ball in the air with greater frequency this year, considering his FB percentage is a career-best 51 percent with an elite 48 percent hard hit rate (up from last year's 38.4 percent). Belt is hitting ground balls at a rate of just 22 percent, while his hard-hit rate has spiked nearly 10 points over last year. He still has fairly extreme L/R splits, posting a 1.078 OPS versus RHP and a .698 mark against lefties. If he can make some adjustments and even come close to the .883 OPS vs LHP he had two years ago, Belt is an easy .310/.30/100 guy, and with his plus glove, an easy All-Star.

Jorge Soler thriving in Kansas City

I'd pretty much written Soler off, so of course he's hitting .316/.419/.519, as perhaps the change of scenery took some of the pressure off that he felt in Chicago and the pressure from being traded for Wade Davis prior to the 2017 season. Soler has been plagued by injuries and ineffectiveness since making his first big league appearance in 2014, and he entered this year with a .244/.318/.412 slash line. Given the hype, he's been a bust, but he's now making the most of this second chance. Soler has shown across-the-board improvement in his metrics:

YEAR	BB%	K%	HARD HIT%	O-SWING%
2016	11.7	25.0	31.1	28.7
2017	10.9	32.7	31.1	26.3
2018	14.4	23.8	38.1	23.2

More walks, fewer strikeouts, balls are hit harder, and he's swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone. Soler was thought of as raw with significant upside when he signed his nine-year $30 million deal back in 2012, and perhaps we're finally seeing those tools translate into solid numbers.

Matt Davidson NOT falling off the map after his 3-HR Opening Day

Davidson's three-HR, five-RBI performance on Opening Day was a surprise but not a huge one considering he's always had big raw power. What is a surprise is that he's kept it going and is now batting .259/.380/.586 with 11 home runs. Davidson has somehow improved his BB percentage to 15.5, a quantum leap over last year's 4.3 percent mark and his 7.6 percent career total. He's still striking out 31 percent of the time but even that is an improvement. If you're wondering whether his 51.4 percent hard hit rate is good, yes, it is. Only J.D. Martinez has a higher mark this year (53.4 percent). Another astounding metric (to me) is that Davidson has swung at just 23.3 percent of pitches outside the zone, a massive improvement over last year's 33.4 percent mark. As a point of reference, Javier Baez has a 46.1 percentage rate. The Chicago Tribune reported in March that improving his pitch selection was at the top of his to-do list and that he was working with Paul Konerko on his approach. Not a bad idea to take advice from a guy with 439 career home runs and a .354 OBP. As a side note, 2018 marks the 20-year anniversary of the Jeff Shaw-Konerko trade, and yes, I'm still bitter about that one. Anyway, I'm a believer in Matt Davidson, and while I watch White Sox games mainly for Yoan Moncada, I've come away more impressed with Davidson.

Lucas Giolito being perhaps the worst starting pitcher in baseball

I remember debating between Giolito and Luke Weaver in my annual Scoresheet baseball draft in March, and fortunately I made the right choice (for once). Weaver has shown signs of being a No. 2 starter, while Giolito looks to be destined for Triple-A with a 6.91 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. Hopefully you're not eating while reading this, as I lost my appetite looking at these numbers as well: 5.2 K/9, 6.9 BB/9, a 91.4 mph average fastball (down 0.7 mph over last year and two mph from 2016), and his flyball rate is up and he's probably been lucky to allow less than a HR per nine innings given a low 5.2 percent HR/FB rate. Giolito is still just 23, and with a minor league ERA of 3.18 supported by a 9.6 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9, he's shown promise, but from what I've seen both watching him and in the numbers, there's something off with his approach and/or mechanics. That's why teams have pitching coaches, so for Giolito owners' sakes, hopefully they figure out how to fix this guy.

David Price continuing his downward spiral

In year three of a seven-year $217 million deal that now ranks among the worst contracts in baseball, I have to wonder whether baseball's most famous Fortnite player is just not a right fit for Boston and their fanatic fan base. He did just fine in Tampa Bay, Toronto and Detroit, but this is a whole different environment. Even when he was healthy in year one in Boston, Price still posted a 3.99 ERA, which is fine for the AL but not for a guy making $31 million a year. Price was limited to 74.2 innings last year due to elbow and finger issues, and while he hasn't missed a start this year, perhaps the carpal tunnel syndrome is at least partially to blame for his 4.98 ERA and rapid erosion of his control (4.0 BB/9). Price had four consecutive sub-2.0 BB/9 seasons from 2013 to 2016 prior to jumping to 2.9 last year and even worse this year. Combine that with a drop in velocity, and the results have been poor at best. I really thought he'd get healthy this winter, focus on improving his game, and perhaps even make a run at a Comeback Player of the Year award while being a top-10 to top-15 fantasy pitcher. I'm sure he's great at video games though.