Mound Musings: The Kids on Parade Watch List for 2019

Here we go. This is the column I look forward to the most every season. As regular readers are probably aware, I play almost exclusively in keeper and dynasty leagues. And, not surprisingly, there is a huge benefit in identifying and acquiring excellent pitching talent just before they arrive in the major leagues. If a young pitcher is going to turn into the next Blake Snell, value shopping dictates you want him on your roster before your league opponents realize he's a star on the rise.

The problem is, this list is actually getting more difficult to maintain. There are still plenty of young arms with high ceilings, but it seems like more and more of the blue-chippers are being called to the majors before they have had time to tip off that high upside in the minors. Colleges are doing a better job of preparing these youngsters – many believe the better programs are equivalent to Low-A, or perhaps even High-A ball – and teams are desperate to find pitchers capable of helping today. The result has been an unprecedented rush to the major leagues, and we are left trying to sift through all those kids in an attempt to add the real impact arms, while avoiding the pretenders. It's not easy. I'll remind you that the pitchers below are primarily guys who will likely arrive (if they haven't already) in the next year or two at the most. Let's get started …

Put These Guys At The Top Of Your Watch List

Alex Reyes (STL) – Reyes was steadily climbing on the Parade for a couple of years, and then briefly showed his stuff in St. Louis late in 2016. Unfortunately, he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery, costing him all of 2017. He began 2018 with some work in the minor leagues with rather spectacular results (22 innings, seven hits, no runs and 44 strikeouts). Then, in his first 2018 outing for the Cardinals, he suffered a severe lat strain that ended with surgery and another lost season. Obviously, injury should be a concern, but these are injuries with generally good return probability, and this guy, when healthy, is a beast. His command, even when there is no rust from missed time, is a bit erratic, but his fastball is one of the best around, and he knows how to use it up in the zone to generate strikeouts. He compliments it with a wipeout curveball and a solid change-up. It may take him a while to get everything back in synch, but he has the highest ceiling of any pitcher on a stacked Cardinals' staff.

MacKenzie Gore (SD) – He still has a long road ahead to make it to San Diego, having spent 2018 with Low-A Fort Wayne, with some troubling blister issues probably slowing his progress. His numbers were pretty ordinary (a 1.31 WHIP with a 4.45 ERA), but he logged 74 strikeouts in 60 innings, while flashing his very appealing upside during the stretches of good health. I was awed by the level of command he displayed with his four-pitch repertoire while still in high school. None of them are what I would consider truly exceptional, but they are all very, very good, and a southpaw who can throw four very good pitches for strikes in any count is automatically a blue-chip prospect. A lefty who can do that at age 19 ends up near the head of this Parade. He's likely at least a year away, maybe more, but if his modest 2018 numbers have made him available in your dynasty league, now is the time to acquire him.

Mike Soroka (ATL) – Soroka is, in many ways, a right-handed version of Gore. He's very young (21), he has very good stuff with a full repertoire of pitches he can throw for quality strikes at any time, and he pitches much older than his actual age. Are we seeing a trend here in the Parade? I am a little concerned that he was shut down in June with "shoulder fatigue" after just 25 innings with the Braves, but he's too advanced to write off. His fastball is low 90s with a lot of sink, but he compliments it with a nice breaking ball and an exceptional change-up. He hasn't been out of place despite being one of the youngest pitchers wherever he has pitched. The Braves have a collection of incredibly talented young arms (you'll read about more below), and I put him squarely at the top of the list. He's not likely to be a big strikeout guy, but I expect a low WHIP, low ERA, ground ball machine. I just love young arms with his composure, and they are very rare.

Forrest Whitley (HOU) – Many analysts rank Whitley the top pitching prospect in the game today. It's hard to argue with them. He is young (21), has dynamic stuff and he's built to be a workhorse (6'7" and 240 lbs.). I won't fault his stuff. His fastball sits low-mid 90s with a lot of movement, and he uses his long body to generate a bit of deception as the ball gets on the hitter very quickly. He mixes in a very effective curve, with a sharp slider, and change-up. There's that four-pitch mix at a young age again. However, Whitley hasn't been able to fully display his talents yet. He was sharp over 91 innings in 2017 but was handed a 50-game suspension after testing positive for a banned substance to begin this season, then missed time, first with an oblique injury and later with a lat strain. Both injuries were considered minor, but all-told, he was limited to just 26 innings in 2018. These factors have slowed his progress, but hopefully he can put it all behind him, and he can get back on track next year.

Jesus Luzardo (OAK) – Luzardo first seriously caught my eye in this year's Futures Game. He was one I was watching, but that outing showed a lot to like. The A's got him from Washington in the deal that sent Sean Doolittle to the Nationals. He's yet another young guy (20) with the basics of a four-pitch arsenal. The lefty can get his fastball into the upper 90s, sometimes cuts it, and he displays a good feel for a change-up given his age and pro experience. His breaking stuff – a nice curve and a slider with promise – need to be more consistent, but you can see the potential. He pitched well and spanned three levels this year (High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A) before appearing to run out of gas late in the season. He had already pitched considerably more innings than the previous season, so the drop-off in effectiveness wasn't too surprising. He has some work to do, primarily locking in his release point and refining his breaking pitches, but I think he could see Oakland late next season if all goes well.

Nate Pearson (TOR) – Not all the Parade pitchers are nearly finished products. There are some I like based on pure, raw stuff. Pearson is a bit of a wildcard, having limited exposure to higher level competition, but I believe he has what it takes. He pitched just a few innings in a controlled workload environment at Low-A Vancouver last year, and it was evident he needed more of a challenge. The Jays decided to aggressively bump him up to High-A Dunedin this season, but he missed the first month with an oblique strain and then suffered a broken forearm after taking a line drive in the second inning of his first start. So much for 2018. When he's on the mound, it's all about his fastball. He sits mid-upper 90s, but he can hit triple digits in short bursts, and he pitches on an extremely exaggerated downward plane. It makes hitting that fastball like hitting a bowling ball with a broomstick. He has a decent change-up and a developing slider, so he has the potential to be a solid starter, and if not, he profiles as a devastating closer.

Matt Manning (DET) – At age 20, Manning is the type of pitcher who can rather quickly move up to the front of the Parade, or drop completely out of it. He has the raw tools, including a lively fastball and a curve that can be devastating at times. It's the "at times" part that makes ranking him a challenge. When I watched him a couple years ago, there were times I wasn't sure I was watching the same guy. Two different outings, two different arm slots, and as I watched, I realized his release point varied in the same game. This year I saw progress. He moved up the ladder as he got things more in synch, finishing the season with Double-A Erie. Next season will be a key for him. He's not there yet, so his command will need to improve while facing the better, more selective hitters at this level. I think he'll need at least a year to show he can keep all the parts moving in unison, but the Tigers like to be aggressive with their better young arms, so he could arrive as soon as later next season. Just be patient if/when he comes up.

Ian Anderson (ATL) – There are three Braves' pitchers in the Parade this year. That's unprecedented, and there could have easily been a fourth. Anderson and Wright (see below) have regularly traded places for a while now. I can't decide which one I like better, I just know I like them both, a lot. Anderson features a very good, mid 90s fastball and a plus curveball that can fool hitters as he delivers it from a high arm angle. But, what keeps me coming back for more is his rapidly developing change-up. The Braves focus heavily on getting their young guys comfortable with a change. Some guys get it, some not so much. Anderson seems to be grabbing it by the tail and making it his own. The numbers would suggest his command is just average, but in watching him, you may note that he lives on the edges of the strike zone, and not many pitchers his age have the feel to do that. The bonus is, nothing center cut, the ball stays in the park.

Kyle Wright (ATL) – Wright was yet another pitcher I enjoyed watching in this year's Futures Game. He features a solid fastball, an excellent overhand curve and an already fairly reliable change-up, and he showed them off, successfully, at Double-A Mississippi and Triple-A Gwinnett in his first full pro season. Folks, that's not easy to do. He came out of Vanderbilt, and his effectiveness out of the blocks underscores the level of development being achieved in major college baseball programs these days. He even got a look with the big club this season. Wright is mature and cool under pressure, as he displayed in the Futures Game. That is yet another big plus. I don't think he has quite the raw stuff of some of his Braves' organization arms, but he might be one of the safer bets to make it, and pitch successfully at the highest level. With position players like Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies, plus the amazing young arms on the way, the Braves should be one of the most exciting teams in baseball for years.

Hunter Greene (CIN) – This one is all about the arm. Greene is one of the new breed of professional baseball players who can both pitch and hit. The Reds opted to see where he can go with that flamethrower arm of his and had him pitch exclusively this season. Actually, he's still more of a thrower than a pitcher, but when you easily throw 102 to 104 mph, there is good reason to monitor his progress. He pitched at Low-A Dayton this year, and not too surprisingly, experienced mixed results. He still lacks consistency, especially with his secondary stuff. He keeps the fastball down, but he'll need to learn to vary his location up and down in the zone. Advanced hitters won't be overwhelmed by his big fastball if they know when and where it's coming. Also of some concern, Greene was shut down in August when he came up with a UCL injury. It was deemed minor and won't require Tommy John surgery, but it is a red flag. He's likely at least a couple years away, but with his potential upside, he could be worth the wait.

Anderson Espinoza (SD) – Sometimes, usually because of injuries, a talented, Parade-worthy young pitcher spends some time lurking in the shadows. Guys like that may be temporarily out of sight, but they shouldn't be out of mind. Such is the case with the Padres' Espinoza. He experienced some forearm and elbow issues early in 2017, and despite efforts to avoid it, he had Tommy John surgery in August of that year. The result was basically two lost seasons. He is expected back next spring, and while he will no doubt have a closely monitored workload, he could be MLB ready to roll in 2020. One 70-grade pitch is worth noting. Two can make the pitcher very appealing. Espinoza might have three (fastball, curveball and change-up). That easily puts him squarely on my radar screen. There assuredly will be some rust after being off so long, and as I mentioned, the team won't overwork him. However, he's near the top of a deep roster of exceptionally talented young pitchers in the San Diego organization.

Eric Pardinho (TOR) – Understandably, I get asked if there are more, shall we say, "obscure" pitchers on my watch list. Most of those named above are pretty recognizable. It's not easy to keep a secret with this kind of ability. A year ago, Pardinho was virtually unknown. I drafted him in a couple dynasty leagues last spring based on a few short clips I had seen of him pitching for the Brazilian team in the World Baseball Classic qualifier – at age 15. He's 17 now, and he's listed at 5'10" and 155 lbs. (both might be generous) so he's not your prototypical starting pitcher. That said, he fairly easily gets his fastball into the mid-90s with movement, and I was especially impressed with his curveball. He spent this season at Rookie-level Bluefield in the Appalachian League and gave a good account of himself (4-3 with a 2.88 ERA and 64 strikeouts in 50 innings). He has exceptional mound presence for his age, so a gig in full-season ball should be on his calendar next year. Yes, there are many "ifs," but he has the makeup to move quickly up the food chain. Just to be clear, he's not here just because he isn't well-known, he has earned his spot in the Parade.

There are more names that could be added to this list, and I apologize if your guy isn't here – but I want to keep the Parade as pristine and pure as possible. One notable name missing is Julio Urias (LAD). I didn't forget him, but shoulder surgery cost him most of this year, and he has been up with the big club, so perhaps he has graduated. He remains a blue-chip prospect and deserves a spot high on your list. Here are a just few other honorable mentions who received consideration (in no special order) for inclusion in the 2019 Parade: Yep, yet another Braves' kid makes it, Touki Toussaint (ATL), A.J. Puk (OAK, Justus Sheffield (NYY), Michel Baez (SD), Mitch Keller (Pit), Brady Singer (KC), Sean Reid-Foley (TOR), Chris Paddack (SD), Adonis Medina (PHA), Dylan Cease (CWS), and Brusdar Graterol (MIN).

It's not easy for pitchers to make this list, and it can be very hard to maintain a spot, but the list is never static. Tomorrow, the Parade could, and probably will, change.