The Z Files: Early Market Disagreements Part Two
The Z Files: Early Market Disagreements Part Two

This article is part of our The Z Files series.

Last week, I reviewed five players I favor more than the early market. This week, I'll discuss five that I'm bearish on. However, before that, I'll provide some background information, so you have a better idea where I'm coming from.

There are two powerful forces pulling players up the ranks: recency bias and fear of missing out. The two have a common thread as many players fall under both. An example would be a young player showing elite skills in a small sample. Another would be a prospect yet to make his debut but hyped to the nines. Players coming off a breakout campaign also fit the bill.

Many fantasy drafters focus too much on the most recent performance, overlooking sample size consideration or the fact prospects don't have any track record in the majors whatsoever. They're fearful if they don't draft the player at their current turn, he'll be gone by their next pick.

In general, this is a poor reason for drafting a player. I'll discuss this concept further into the drafting season, but each pick comes with a reasonable expectation. Every selection should have a plausible pathway to be worthy of that pick, and plausible doesn't mean if all the stars align and the guy plays to his 95h percentile projection. The reasonable expectation needs to agree with what's anticipated with each pick.

If there isn't a rational chance for the player to warrant the pick, taking him "because he won't make it back to me"

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Todd Zola
Todd has been writing about fantasy baseball since 1997. He won NL Tout Wars and Mixed LABR in 2016 as well as a multi-time league winner in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Todd is now setting his sights even higher: The Rotowire Staff League. Lord Zola, as he's known in the industry, won the 2013 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year award and was named the 2017 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year. Todd is a five-time FSWA awards finalist.
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