This article is part of our MLB Barometer series.
Every year, there are undervalued players that fill in the rosters of league-winning teams. We know it's important to avoid early-round mistakes, and that you need to be somewhat lucky with having your key players avoid significant injuries, but connecting on undervalued players throughout your draft or auction is important as well.
There are plenty of ways to try and unearth overlooked talent, but I wanted to employ a slightly different approach. I wanted to compare multiple projection systems to ADP from the NFBC's January drafts. For this piece, I used Derek Carty's system "The BAT" at FanGraphs and Jeff Erickson's RotoWire projections on the site. The goal was to use two sets of projections that have different processes behind them, and see where they agreed on players as underpriced.
Once I had the ADP list, I assigned the dollar values from each set of projections to each draft slot. Then, I compared the projected dollar value of each player from each system to the value of their ADP draft slot, finding the difference between the two values (subtracting the player's projected value from the value of their draft slot – negative differences indicated "overvalued" players, positive differences indicated "undervalued" players). Finally, I calculated the average difference from each of the two projection systems, in order to find players that the projections "agreed" on as undervalued.
For The BAT, I ran the auction values tool at FanGraphs to generate dollar values. For the RotoWire projections, I used the custom auction