Oak's Corner: Closers and Fades

Welcome back to another year of Oak's Corner! First of all, thanks to everyone at RotoWire for inviting me back, and thanks to everyone who reads the column each week. I love hearing the feedback and comments here and on Twitter. Please feel free to reach out at any time with thoughts, as I always love talking baseball. I look forward to once again sharing my thoughts on the weeks in baseball, as well as identifying some free agent and closer pickups I like. The in-season grind of fantasy baseball can be a tough one, especially in the dog days of summer, but here's hoping I can make the grind a touch easier for you and maybe make a small difference in helping you win your fantasy leagues this year.

With the season only two weeks away (sorry, I can't get fired up or acknowledge the initial series in Japan, even as an A's fan, since the games come on at 2:30 a.m. my time), and drafts in full swing, (I head to Vegas for the NFBC Main Event next weekend) I'll share a few thoughts on the closer market before breaking down a few players in the Top 100 that I am fading in drafts this season.

It has been well established if you listened to any podcast or read an article this offseason that the closer market is an absolute mess. Between Craig Kimbrel still (it's March 15th!) being unsigned, many closers possessing shaky skills and multiple teams considering going closer by committee, it gets difficult really quickly to address saves, especially in a 15-team league like the NFBC with no trading. Edwin Diaz is the clear top closer, usually coming off the board in the fourth round followed by Blake Treinen in the early fifth round. After those top two guys, there is a group of six guys (including the unsigned Kimbrel) who usually come off the board in the sixth and seventh rounds, and then another group of eight who go before the 10th round is done. That is a total of 16 relievers, and this group includes Josh Hader and Corey Knebel from the same team, and Raisel Iglesias whose manager has already stated that they may use him in high leverage spots rather than as a traditional closer. Good luck with that as a fantasy owner.

After the top 10 rounds, every one of the closers remaining has some real question marks, whether it be due to security of the role or to shaky or diminishing skills. We all will have our guys in those spots who we like more than others, but there is no way to dispute they all have some points against them. It quickly gets tough as you need starting pitchers with the lack of big-inning aces compared to past years, and while it is hard to pass up the offense available in the sixth to eighth rounds, I think it's important to try and grab one of that second tier six after Treinen and Diaz, or at the very least make sure to get one of the guys who gets picked before the 10th round.  This of course goes for a contest like the NFBC with an overall element where you cannot just tank a category. The strategy for saves in a standalone becomes even more fascinating this year. If I miss one of the top eight closers, which can certainly happen easily, I'm going to then try and make up for it with volume and maybe grab two guys in the next tiers or take a third closer earlier than I normally would to make up for missing the established with some multiple shots of volume.

Of course, a lot depends on how quickly the closer run happens in your league, but the paucity of established guys solidly in their role does cause me to prefer the middle picks in drafts more this year (I still will rank one and two the highest since Trout and Betts are such a big starting edge) as it at least gives you a chance to play some strategy/chicken with closers based on how other teams are drafting. If you are at one of the ends, it could be tough to not grab a closer earlier than you want to due to the concern that a whole tier of closers may all get drafted in the 26 or 28 picks before you pick again. Saves are going to be a constant source of angst this year, but I look forward to helping you stay on top of them during the season if you find yourself needing to make a move to catch up in the category.

Top 100 ADP Fades

People love to talk or write about who they like in drafts, but I like to start out with identifying guys whom I don't like at their current ADP. I tried to pick no one obvious to discuss, and these are all players in the Top 100, so they are popular players. It's always valuable for me to figure out who I don't like, especially later in draft season, as the group think can sometimes be tough to avoid. These aren't necessarily players I see having poor years, but just guys I'm not willing to take at their going rate. This worked really well last preseason as I highlighted Buster Posey, Corey Knebel and Eric Hosmer in this space, so hopefully we can have similar success this year. (Note: ADPs noted are from NFBC over the last two weeks of drafts).

Andrew Benintendi (ADP 29.8). This will definitely be a minority opinion, as Benintendi appears on a whole lot of breakout lists this year from very smart fantasy writers. I like watching Benintendi play, and this one is really all about the price rather than the player. Benintendi will fall into many counting stats in this fantastic lineup, but the current ADP is just too rich for me. In 2018, Benintendi swiped 21 bases while hitting 16 homers, all with a strong strikeout rate of only 16. These are solid numbers, and at 24, he is likely to improve, but still not enough for me to take him in the second round or the early third round.

A closer look at 2018 made me less excited about Benintendi's upcoming 2019. After two years of a good, but not great, hard hit rate, he dropped all the way to 28 percent, a number that is not only bad but slotted in at the 10th worst in baseball. Hard hit numbers don't mean everything, but for someone I'm taking in the top 30 and who projects to likely steal 20 to 25 bases, I'm sure going to want to see some sign that he has some power upside coming. With a meager hard hit rate and only a 35 percent fly ball rate, I just don't see it coming. 

He does hit a lot of line drives (23.8 percent line drive rate in 2018), which should keep his average in a nice spot, but without huge stolen base or home run upside, I find him to be the most over-drafted guys in the first two rounds. It appears he will be hitting lead off, and while that should lead to a few more steals and a lot of runs, it's also going to impair his RBI total. I will stick to enjoying watching Benintendi as a baseball fan, but he won't be on my teams this year without a slip into at least the late 30s, which is just not going to happen.

Ozzie Albies (ADP 61.1) After an offseason of draft helium, Albies burst on the scene in 2018 in a gigantic way with 14 homers through the first two months of the season. He then struggled the rest of the way with only 10 homers over the last four months and only four homers in 64 second-half games. The power drop was not the only issue with his second half. as his hit .226 in the second half with an especially ugly .198 average in the final 27 games of the season. Albies does make strong contact with a 17 percent strikeout rate, but his walk rate dropped to 5.3 percent, which limits his opportunity to steal bases. He was efficient on the base paths with only three caught stealings, but the 14 stolen bases were definitely less than fantasy owners had hoped for. 

The biggest concern regarding Albies from a fantasy perspective comes from his likely spot in the Braves batting order. After four months of hitting first or second almost every day for the Braves in 2018, he spent the last two months in the bottom half of the order, a spot he is projected to hit again in 2019. It's hard to really blame the Braves, as Albies' .305 OBP last year definitely doesn't make him a candidate to hit atop the order to start the year, and with Josh Donaldson in the mix this season, they have a guy they are likely to slot into the two slot all season, at least while he is healthy. 

If Albies hits sixth as projected, the opportunities to steal bases become significantly fewer, and the runs and RBI certainly get affected. When I started to study the NFBC ADPs, I was a bit surprised to see Albies so high, and he has remained there with his current ADP, which puts him around the 4/5 turn in 15 teamers. While Albies is only 22 and possesses a ton of talent, I think there are way too many question marks to start to season to pay the current price.

Patrick Corbin (ADP 50.1). Due to the spring injury news on Clayton Kershaw and Luis Severino, Corbin has moved up in the ranks and now finds himself as the 12th starting pitcher off the board with a price in the fourth round, and that might even rise to the end of the third round by the time the NFBC Main Events get going. Corbin was a fantastic story in 2018, compiling a 3.15 ERA in 200 innings for the Diamondbacks. After some struggles post Tommy John Surgery, Corbin had far and away his best season, highlighted by a huge bump in his strikeout rate to 11.1 K/9, while he also dropped his walk rate to 2.2 BB/9. The strikeout rate was fully supported with a 15.6 percent swinging strike rate that was second highest, trailing only Max Scherzer.

I have some minor concerns that teams will adjust to his heavy slider usage (second in baseball to Jhoulys Chacin) combined with the fact that his fastball dropped from 92.4 mph in 2017 to 90.8 mph in 2018. If the fastball can't pop back up, I have to imagine the slider has to start to not be quite as effective. My biggest concern on Corbin is the elevated hard hit rate of 41.7 percent in 2018, which was hidden in his fantastic season. He surrenders very few fly balls, which helps limit homers, but if he continues to give up that many hard hit balls, the extra base hits are going to come and hurt his numbers. I like Corbin and he helped me in some spots last year, but there is enough I am worried about to not want to use a fourth rounder on him nor rank him as the 12th best starter.

Aroldis Chapman (ADP 80.6). Chapman is fun to watch and fun to own in fantasy leagues, but there are enough chinks in the armor for me to fade him at the price and take other closers in the range instead. One concern with Chapman at the price is the number of innings he has thrown recently as he has only topped 60 innings once in the last five seasons. The other big issue when looking at Chapman's 2018 is the extreme spike in walk rate. His strikeouts were elite as always at 16.3 K/9, but the walks at 5.3 BB/9 are a number that I just hate to see from a closer.

In addition to the walks, Chapman was hit harder than in any other year of his career with a 34.5 percent hard hit rate. His fastball also dropped more than a mile per hour from 2017, but when that drop still leaves you at 98.9 mph, I suppose it isn't quite time to worry about. My final issue with Chapman at his price stems from the fact that the Yankees bullpen is so impressively stacked that there is no reason to push Chapman or even use him three days in a row at any point. In addition, if that control doesn't bounce back and he struggles at all, the Yankees have proven studs in the pen in Dellin Betances, Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino and Chad Green ready to fill in. Chapman will likely be fine, but there is enough there that I rather have Brad Hand, Roberto Osuna or Felipe Vazquez in the same range.