MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

The following is a list of things which are true on the morning of April 1, 2019:

1. Christian Yelich is slugging 1.583.

2. Juan Soto is striking out in 53.8 percent of his plate appearances.

3. Domingo Santana is on pace for 270 RBI.

4. Alex Bregman is hitting .067.

5. Giancarlo Stanton is on pace for 378 walks and zero home runs.

6. Kirby Yates is on pace for 122 saves.

7. Josh Hader has a -1.61 FIP.

8. Chris Sale has a 21.00 ERA.

9. Russell Martin has a 0.00 ERA.

10. The Mariners and Royals lead their divisions, while the Orioles are tied for a wild card spot.

Small-sample fun is a big part of the joy of the return of the baseball season, second only to the whole finally-watching-live-baseball-again thing. From a fantasy perspective, though, the first few weeks are mostly an exercise in patience and in learning not to react to the exciting performance you just watched last night.

Patience, however, is a virtue, and, in the Aristotelian view, like most virtues, it exists as a mean  between two negative extremes. Reacting too quickly is probably the more common and more dangerous vice among fantasy owners, as it leads to quality players ending up on the waiver wire after short slumps while other players get added after performances they'll never replicate.

Reacting too slowly is equally problematic, as being the second one to notice a breakout isn't worth much if the player is already on another team. The saying, "Nobody cares about your fantasy team," isn't quite true (because I do care about your fantasy teams, dear reader), but the non-existent saying, "Nobody cares about who your fantasy team could have been if you had just picked up all the right players," definitely is.

This week's Barometer highlights things worth reacting to through the first series of the season. Since the season is so young, it will naturally be very pitcher heavy, as pitchers give us more meaningful data to work with early in the first few games of the year. Velocity becomes relevant right away, and starting pitchers have also simply had more to do after just three or four games. Only four batters (not counting players Seattle and Oakland players who have played an extra series) have received at least 20 plate appearances, while 78 pitchers have reached that mark.

RISERS

Josh Hader, RP, Brewers: Even if he never recorded a save, Hader would produce fantasy value in line with a decent starting pitcher. With starters having increasingly light workloads, Hader's 81.1 innings last season aren't terribly far off what you might expect from an injury-prone starter, and he does more than enough in those innings to make up for the gap. His 143 strikeouts last year were five more than Jake Arrieta (in 172.2 innings) and just three fewer than Miles Mikolas (in 200.2 frames). Through a three-inning sample  this season, Hader has raised his strikeout rate from an absurd 46.7 percent to a just plain stupid 77.8 percent. Opposing hitters have made contact on 18.2 percent of their swings against him, compared 75 percent against the average pitcher. And with Corey Knebel out for the season due to Tommy John surgery, Hader has both of the Brewers' saves. The upside – if Hader keeps his heavy workload while also receiving the majority of Milwaukee's save chances – is the best relief season since the invention of fantasy baseball. Even if his save totals comes in closer to 20 than 40, his fantasy owners will be very happy with their investment.

Greg Holland, RP, Diamondbacks: The consensus for most of spring was that Archie Bradley would win the Diamondbacks' closer job, and manager Torey Lovullo said as much in December. Holland's poor spring and diminished velocity seemed to all but confirm that, but he was then suddenly named the closer just four days prior to Opening Day. It's hard not to think that suppressing Bradley's salary in arbitration isn't a primary factor in that decision, which is frustrating from a moral standpoint but encouraging from an "I-own-multiple-shares-of-Greg-Holland" standpoint, as it could make Holland's grip on the role more secure. The decreased velocity remains discouraging, but Holland did strike out two of the three batters he faced while recording his first save of the year Friday against the Dodgers. The Diamondbacks have shown a willingness to stick with veterans with mediocre numbers in the ninth inning the last few years, with Fernando Rodney saving 39 games despite a 4.23 ERA in 2017 and Brad Boxberger recording 32 saves with a 4.39 ERA last season. Even if Holland can't recapture the form that saw him post a 0.84 ERA with a 31.3 percent strikeout rate after a midseason trade to Washington last season, there's a good chance that he's suddenly a mid-tier closer after looking unrosterable just two weeks ago.

Chris Paddack, SP, Padres: Through Feb. 28, Paddack's NFBC ADP was 413. Since March 1, once it became clear he had a legitimate shot to break camp in the rotation, it shot all the way up 204. Fantasy owners clearly started taking a look at his minor-league numbers and saw that he owned a career 1.82 ERA backed up by a 35.3 percent strikeout rate and a 2.4 percent walk rate. Granted, none of those starts came at the Triple-A level and only seven came at Double-A, but at a certain point the skills are so impressive that it becomes clear they'll play at any level. The Padres evidently believed that, as they chose not to waste any more of his bullets in the minors. He rewarded them with seven strikeouts and just one earned run in his five-inning debut Sunday against the Giants, allowing just three baserunners. Granted, the Giants will make many starters look good this season, but Paddack is already making it look like his ADP should have risen even higher.

Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets: Alonso is a "Riser" primarily because the Mets stayed true to general manager Brodie Van Wagenen's word and opened the season with their best 25 players. He's also been batting in the second spot in the team's revamped lineup, hitting between a pair of quality bats in Brandon Nimmo and Robinson Cano. Those factors could get him on this list regardless of his performance, but hitting .500 in his first three games certainly doesn't hurt. As a right-handed first baseman drafted out of college, Alonso was never an elite prospect. All a player with that profile (of which Rhys Hoskins is another prominent recent example) can do to raise his stock is to hit and keep hitting, and Alonso has done that.

Pablo Lopez, SP, Marlins: After his 10-start debut last season, Lopez looked like a respectable back-end starter, with a playable 4.14 ERA and an unimpressive 18.6 percent strikeout rate. That's not bad for a player who was still just 22 and hadn't pitched above High-A prior to the season, but it certainly wasn't anything to get too excited about. He received some sleeper buzz this spring due to reports of increased velocity, however, as the shoulder injury that ended his campaign prematurely in early September had apparently been holding him back for much of the year. He did nothing to dispel the hype through his first start of the season Saturday against the Rockies, striking out seven while walking none in 5.1 innings. His velocity was indeed higher, averaging 94.2 mph, a tick higher than what he threw last season. Lopez is at minimum one to watch in shallower formats and definitely one to own in deeper leagues.

FALLERS

Chris Sale, SP, Red Sox: Fantasy owners could have used an ace-like start from Sale to open the season to calm the worries that followed from his battles with shoulder injuries late in the 2018 campaign. What they got instead was a complete dud. The lefty lasted just three innings on Opening Day against a not-particularly imposing Mariners lineup, giving up three homers and seven runs. Even more concerning is the fact that his fastball averaged just 92.8 mph, nearly three ticks less than last season. There are  reasons not to be completely discouraged, though. Per Brooks Baseball, in three of Sale's eight full seasons, his velocity through April was several mph below where it would end up by summer. In those seasons (2011, 2013 and 2018), Sale finished with ERAs of 2.79, 3.07 and 2.11, respectively.

Zack Greinke, SP, Diamondbacks: Sooner or later, age will catch up to Greinke. The 35-year-old has held off Father Time remarkably well in recent years, as he cruised to a 3.21 ERA last season despite a fastball which averaged just 89.6 mph. He looks set to continue testing the theory of how slow he can throw and still be successful this season, and early returns are not promising. He was lit up for seven runs on seven hits, including four homers, in just 3.2 innings in his season debut Thursday against the Dodgers, showcasing a fastball which had dropped another tick to 88.6 mph. Pitchers with that kind of velocity don't always age gracefully, and while one start isn't nearly enough to write him off, it's certainly enough to raise some skepticism about his value.

Walker Buehler, SP, Dodgers: Buehler's spring had already been going poorly prior to his season debut Sunday against the Diamondbacks. He was held back early in camp for reasons which were initially unspecified, but it was later revealed that he "didn't feel right" during that period. That's better than an official injury diagnosis, but the delayed start and vague sense of unease should have been a warning. He wasn't expected to pitch deep into Sunday's game, as he's still not fully built up, but the Dodgers' plan certainly wasn't for him to allow five runs in three innings without recording a single strikeout. Contrary to Sale and Greinke, Buehler's velocity wasn't down, so Sunday's struggles may be nothing more than a pitcher shaking off some rust after a long offseason. Still, the delayed start and poor outing serve as a necessary reminder of the uncertainty surrounding Buehler this season. He was drafted as if he was an already established ace, coming in one spot behind Noah Syndergaard in the NFBC ADP list. He's still quite inexperienced and will be handled carefully after seeing his innings total nearly double last season. It shouldn't surprise  if the 24-year-old takes a small step back rather than another step forward this year.

Wilmer Flores, 1B, Diamondbacks: Flores intrigued some fantasy analysts this offseason due to the potential for a breakout season in what appeared to be his first chance at an everyday role in Arizona. Through four games, such a role doesn't seem to be coming, as he appears to be stuck on the short side of a platoon. He's started against a pair of lefties but sat against two righties, with Jarrod Dyson pushing Ketel Marte from center field to Flores' new position of second base on each occasion. Even if an injury frees him from his platoon, there's very little reason to be excited, as he's a career .261 hitter whose home run rate translates to a modest 20.2 per 600 plate appearances.

Raisel Iglesias, RP, Reds: The Reds warned us early in spring that Iglesias wouldn't be used as a traditional closer by new manager David Bell, but the Cuban still finished with an NFBC ADP of 111, sandwiched between a pair of true closers in Kirby Yates and Jose Leclerc. Iglesias' usage lived up to that warning right away on Opening Day, as he entered in the eighth inning and exited with one out in the ninth. Iglesias is a quality reliever but is several steps below Josh Hader, so his fantasy viability in a non-closing role is questionable. His 72 innings last season tied him for 24th among all relievers, while his 80 strikeouts tied him for 29th. Even in a leverage-based role, he'll still stumble into a fair number of saves, as a large percentage of high-leverage situations also happen to be save situations, but Iglesias' fantasy owners may be forced to hope for a sudden reversion to a traditional approach from Bell if they're to get their money's worth from Iglesias this season.