Mound Musings: Early Season Trials and Tribulations

Just three weeks in, and by now some fantasy owners are probably growing frustrated with pitchers who have gotten off to rocky starts. If you've played fantasy baseball for any length of time, you've been here. You draft a pitcher who enters the season with pretty lofty expectations. You're excited. You look up and down your new roster as Opening Day approaches, and you see a title in your future. Three weeks later (or sooner for some), you look at your smoldering roster sheet and wonder, what happened? A couple of your "best" pitchers have been repeatedly battered, and you're buried in the standings across a few pitching categories. Trade them? Cut them? There are newcomers out there sprinkling stardust in your eyes! Let's step back, and take a deep breath. What you've seen, may not be what you'll get over time. Let's take a look at why some of these guys just don't make it happen, and whether it's likely to be short term, or will the nightmare last over the long haul.

Pitchers are only human. They are.

Pitching isn't easy. In fact, it's very difficult thing to do; especially at the highest level of the sport. When people suggest it looks easy enough, I challenge them. Take a can of spray paint, and paint a box on the garage door. Step sixty feet-six inches back, stand on a little hill, and throw a ball at that box. Throw your first toss at the bottom line of the box, the next one at the top line, followed by one at the right-hand line and then one at the left. Did you hit the targeted line with all four throws? Was the ball travelling  more than 90 mph with each toss? If the answer is yes, you really should plan to attend the next MLB tryout in your area. However, chances are, the answer wasn't yes, and we didn't even discuss changing speeds, making the ball break, or all of the things that could impact whether you could hit those targets every five days for weeks, months, or even years at a time. Let's do that now. Take these scenarios into consideration:

• A repeatable pitching motion – Here is the first "human" factor and perhaps the most basic pitching principle. Every pitcher strives to develop and maintain a "repeatable" pitching motion. That is, a delivery that looks the same, regardless of the pitch being thrown, and with the ball departing the hand in the same place. If the mechanics are smooth and efficient, the chances for success improve because the pitcher is more likely to throw pitches to spots in the strike zone that are more difficult for hitters to make solid contact. Justin Verlander has always been a pitcher I use as an example of having a smooth, efficient, repeatable motion. He looks like he's casually playing long toss as the ball explodes out of his hand. A less orthodox delivery can significantly increase the deceptive nature of a pitcher's offerings, but there is a trade-off. That erratic motion is generally much more difficult to repeat, leading to an inability to command pitches. And, hitters usually catch on to the deceptive motion, and the hit parade begins. Pitchers with ordinary stuff and deceptive pitching motions are notorious for looking good in their first few starts before imploding as batters catch on.
• Everyday aches and pains – Another "human" factor, basic (day-to-day) health is frequently a hard to diagnose factor in predicting consistent performance. Each morning you wake up feeling somewhere between great and awful. Maybe you pulled a muscle, or you might have just slept wrong on an uncomfortable pillow causing a stiff neck. MLB pitchers are no different, and any nagging aches and pains can impact their performance (without warning) and without a trip to the injured list. Further, these minor injuries don't always have anything to do with the pitcher's arm. Core body muscle strains, and perhaps more importantly, injuries to the legs can and do have a negative impact. Monitor the ongoing health of your pitchers. Some pitchers, for example Anibal Sanchez, are often bothered by nagging injuries. When healthy, they can be fairly effective, but adjustments made to compensate for the injury can take things out of sync, resulting in poor performance. Frequent reports of nagging minor aches and pains, even if quietly whispered, can mean stretches of inconsistency. They certainly can't be totally avoided, so I wouldn't necessarily panic if a generally consistent performer struggles occasionally, especially early in the season.
• Little things make a big difference – Sometimes it can be hard to clearly identify flaws (or simply temporary lapses) in mechanics because the line between right and wrong is often very fine. For example, a pitcher might gradually start rushing (speeding up) his motion. This can cause his landing foot to touch down early, and that can result in, among other things, reduced velocity, opening up – which often causes the pitch to stay up in the zone or sail (lack of command) – and/or overthrowing or failing to stay on top of the ball (reduced rotation so less movement or the pitch straightening out). Trying to include examples, Atlanta's Julio Teheran is one who can rush his delivery and overthrow at times. These issues are magnified for pitchers lacking the raw power to frequently get away with mistakes. Have you ever tried to define the difference between two pitchers with apparently similar skill sets, with one being an ace and the other being a fantasy time bomb? The biggest difference is often how long it takes the pitcher to get back in sync when things go astray.
• The adjustment bureau – On the mound (and in the batter's box), baseball is a never-ending series of adjustments. Pitchers find holes in a hitter's swing and exploit them until the hitter adjusts and compensates for the holes. Hitters identify a pitcher's tendencies in specific situations or pick up on something in his delivery that helps predict what pitch is coming or where it might be located. The adjustment game goes on and on, with the most successful pitchers always seeming to be one step ahead. This often relates to pitch sequencing. The pitcher needs to be as unpredictable as possible, changing location, in and out, and preferably also up and down, while mixing in an assortment of pitches at different speeds. This is why three or four reliable pitches are nearly mandatory. If a hitter is relatively sure a pitcher will throw a certain pitch in a given situation, he will ignore everything else and the advantage swings in his favor. Adjusting is what ultimately determines the fate of a young pitcher. Nick Pivetta just headed to Triple-A, presumably to work on making some adjustments.
• Patience, grasshopper – I'll close with a recommendation. The objective here was to help you identify or explain some things that can contribute to a handful of poor outings, and to perhaps help you decide whether to exercise patience or pull the chute on the pitcher in question. I look at my rosters every day, looking to see if I can upgrade. However, I'm not one to "churn" my roster. The pitchers there are there because I felt they could contribute, and unless I see something to change that opinion, I generally take a breath and wait for the bad stretch to fade from memory rather than putting future contributions on another roster.

Let's take a look at some pitchers who are often heavily pursued by fantasy team owners, but for various reasons, have struggled – some mightily – so far this year. These aren't the usual suspects. These are quality arms who are being counted on to lead a contending fantasy team's rotation.

A sampling of pitchers at or near the top of the disappointment list:

• Chris Sale (Red Sox) – He's 0-4 with a 1.56 WHIP and an 8.50 ERA. And, for several years he has been one of the best pitchers in the game. Should we panic? I was able to watch his start against the Yankees the other night, and there is progress. Sale has a difficult to repeat delivery. He has been out of sync, and his velocity has been down, but it's coming back. Hold on.
• Kyle Hendricks (Cubs) – Like most finesse pitchers, pinpoint command is an absolute necessity for guys like Hendricks. He's not going to overwhelm hitters, and for him, poor location equals hard hit balls (for others, it can be walks and high pitch counts). He has allowed 24 hits in 13 innings. He will improve as his mechanics improve and he begins locating his pitches consistently.
• Aaron Nola (Phillies) – Maybe one of the biggest surprises – for me – on the disappointment list has been Nola. He's been too hittable early on, and that just isn't normal for him. I was able to watch a recent start, and nothing looked off other than his location. The walks are up, and hitters are sitting on his fastball, so he's just not fooling many. These are the kind of early struggles that are resolved.
• Walker Buehler (Dodgers) – Buehler is another from whom I expected huge things this season. I hadn't had much chance to watch him, so I made it a point to check on his start against the Reds. Lively fastball, often up above the letters, inducing chases; sharp, breaking pitches; mixing all of his pitches in. The results were a simply dominant outing. Just keep doing what you're doing, Walker.
• Corey Kluber (Indians) – I may be a bit more concerned about Kluber than the other pitchers listed here. He's now 33, and there are quite a lot of innings on his arm. I have noted a gradual erosion in his overall performance. The velocity is trending down, and his pitches just aren't as crisp. He may be entering the phase of his career where adjustments are necessarily more significant.

Some Other Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• The Rays continue to churn out high upside young starting pitchers. Blake Snell broke his toe and will likely miss a start, but Tyler Glasnow is turning heads now that he has found out he has the stuff to attack hitters in the strike zone. This organization has a formula for success that makes any quality arm noteworthy.
• The much-anticipated return of Clayton Kershaw took place earlier this week, and the results were encouraging. He allowed a first-inning homerun to former teammate Yasiel Puig, but that was the extent of the damage. He's not the pure power pitcher of old, at least not yet, but the wily veteran looked good.
• James Paxton could have possibly made the disappointment list but not based on his past start against Boston. I have watched a lot of his starts, including his no-hitter, and I don't think I've seen him look better. The ball was exploding out of his hand. He may have occasional release point issues, but when he's on, wow!
• A young pitcher I thought might hit the ground running this year has found life in the rotation somewhat perilous. The Brewers' Corbin Burnes was dominant in the pen last year and has the stuff to succeed as a starter. Location has been the problem, leading to 11 dingers in 18 innings. Be patient. He'll adjust.
• Sometimes a pitcher from whom you expect a lot can surprise you in a positive way. Twins' starter Jose Berrios is a legitimate, top-of-the-rotation hurler, but early season returns have been even better than I anticipated. He's showing confidence in his whole repertoire, and hitters just aren't squaring him up.
• Another on the long list of pitchers struggling to get everything in sync is the Cardinals' Miles Mikolas. Similar to the beginning of last season, his command has been inconsistent, leading to homeruns and shorter outings. Other than missing his spots at times, he has looked solid. The command will come.

Endgame Odyssey:

When Atlanta's Arodys Vizcaino went on the injured list (he's out for the season), the door seemingly opened for A.J. Minter. In his first subsequent appearance (not a save opportunity, as he entered a tie game in the ninth inning) he got lit up. That's probably not enough to cost him the job, but he needs to perform to close that door. Jeremy Jeffress was activated earlier this week, and while he may or may not close immediately, the Brewers are likely to give him the chance soon to free up Josh Hader for more flexible usage. The Rays appear to be content deploying a mix and match approach to the late innings. Lefty Jose Alvarado is probably the primary closer, but when matchups favor it, he sometimes switches roles with primary set-up guy Diego Castillo. The Cubs may be putting plans together for closer Brandon Morrow's return. He's been facing live hitters, and a rehab assignment for a May return is probably imminent.