FanDuel MLB: Friday Breakdown

FanDuel MLB: Friday Breakdown

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

The rain is back, which means you have to be wary about taking players in Philadelphia, New York and Boston. There's rain expected all day in those places, though at least in Philly, it should dry up by night. The good news is that it's a full slate, so there are plenty of options.

PITCHING

There are some true aces in good situations, but Max Scherzer ($12,300) and Jacob deGrom ($10,800) both have injury questions and may not pitch a full game. If you don't think Scherzer's ribs will bother him, spend all of your money on him because the Padres are one of the worst in the league against righties with a 26.5 K% and .286 wOBA. If Scherzer was in form and completely healthy, he'd likely be chalk. I'd put deGrom in the mix, but there are also weather concerns in New York.

Instead of Scherzer, you can still get the same upside with James Paxton ($11,000), who has 24 strikeouts in his last two starts. The Giants haven't really hit anyone and sport a subpar 25.2 K% and .270 wOBA against southpaws. Paxton maybe isn't as safe on the road, but it's hard to ignore his recent outings.

If you want to save money, there are plenty of other places to look. On the other side of Paxton, Madison Bumgarner ($9,000) doesn't have the same K upside, but the Yankees have struggled against lefties with a 29.4 K% and .297 wOBA in 143 plate appearances. If you don't like going against the Yankees, Carlos Rodon ($9,400) accrued 43 points against the Tigers last start and could surpass that number at home if he can add another strikeout or two. Hyun-Jin Ryu ($9,500) is another viable lefty facing a Pirates team that has even worse numbers than the Tigers with a 30.0 K% and .250 wOBA.

If weather wasn't an issue, Jerad Eickhoff ($7,800) would be the top value play, but that's something you'll have to monitor. He gets the Marlins and has 14 strikeouts in his first two starts. Unfortunately, there isn't much upside with the cheaper options. Miles Mikolas ($7,400) likely hit his max last outing with 40 fantasy points in eight innings and while he gets the Reds, he's never been a big strikeout guy so that's not going to change in one start. If you prefer more risk, Daniel Norris ($6,800) was solid in his first start against the White Sox, going five scoreless with six strikeouts. You could save more money on Chase Anderson ($6,000), who looked just as good in his first start against the Dodgers, going five scoreless with five strikeouts. The Mets don't have the worst bats, but their .156 ISO against righties is near the bottom of the charts.

KEY VALUES/CHALK

While there are a lot of aces on the slate, there are still a few of duds to go against. That doesn't include Cody Bellinger ($5,000) against Chris Archer, but he's been hitting everyone so that may not matter. A lot of money will likely go to Paul Goldschmidt ($4,600) and Marcell Ozuna ($4,500), who are both crushing for the Cardinals. Eddie Rosario ($4,300) and Nelson Cruz ($3,500) are on that same level after homering a combined three times against Alex Cobb less than a week ago. That said, there are some decent value plays for the Twins if Cobb gets shelled again, as Max Kepler ($3,100), C.J. Cron ($2,800) and Marwin Gonzalez ($2,200) are all cost-effective.

There may not be another matchup as good as Minnesota's, but it's not like Baltimore has a difficult one against Martin Perez. The lefty hurler went six against the Orioles last start, though still allowed four runs and only struck out two. He's also coming off a season in which he allowed a .410 wOBA and 1.88 HR/9 to righty bats. The Orioles have a roster made of value with Dwight Smith ($3,700) and Renato Nunez ($3,500) both on nice runs, but Joey Rickard ($2,700) and Hanser Alberto ($2,200) are also viable if they can make the lineup.

There should be some love for Boston's lefties against Charlie Morton, who gave up five runs at home last week against the Red Sox. Morton is having a nice start to the season, but the Red Sox are hitting much better at home. Andrew Benintendi ($3,900) is the top lefty, while Rafael Devers ($3,000) has been better about not striking out early in the season, which helps against Morton.

STACKS

Twins vs. Alex Cobb (Orioles)

(SS Jorge Polanco - $4,100),  (OF Nelson Cruz - $3,500),  (OF Eddie Rosario - $4,300); (1B C.J. Cron - $2,800),  (3B Marwin Gonzalez - $2,200),  (C Willians Astudillo - $3,000)

This could be the most popular stack after Cobb's last performance against the Twins (2.2 IP, 10 H, 9 ER, 3 HR). He's picking up where he left last season with a .359 wOBA allowed to righty bats and .330 to lefties. The stack at the top of the order isn't too expensive and you could fit Kepler in if you didn't want to spend on Rosario. Polanco and Cruz have been most consistent for the Twins against righty arms this season with the bottom of the order one of the better value stacks.

Mariners vs. Shelby Miller (Rangers)

(OF Mitch Haniger - $4,200),  (1B Daniel Vogelbach - $3,800),  (OF Domingo Santana - $3,700); (C Omar Narvaez - $3,300),  (SS Tim Beckham- $3,400),  (3B Ryon Healy - $3,100)

There's a reason the last time Miller got significant mound time in the majors was 2016. He's started 2019 in a bad way with a miserable six strikeouts and 13 walks in four starts. Spending on the top Mariners stack is the best strategy since that's where most of the power comes from with Haniger and Vogelbach, both with stout ISOs early in the season. Santana doesn't have as much power, but he's Seattle's best bet to get on base against righty arms with a .368 BABIP in 110 plate appearances. The secondary stack isn't as cheap as Minnesota's, but Healy has more power than most bottom-of-the-order hitters, already with 19 extra-base hits this season (5 HR).

Cardinals vs. Anthony DeSclafani (Reds)

(3B Matt Carpenter - $3,300),  (1B Paul Goldschmidt - $4,600),  (SS Paul DeJong - $4,000) (OF Marcell Ozuna - $4,500); (OF Jose Martinez - $3,400),  (C Yadier Molina - $3,200), (OF Dexter Fowler - $2,900)

DeSclafani has had some decent outings, but he's also had some bad ones, already allowing four runs in four innings against St. Louis. Last year's .386 wOBA allowed to lefty bats is the main selling point in this matchup. Carpenter is the unknown in the top stack since he isn't hitting well, but as lead off, he doesn't have to be included. Combining Goldschmidt and Ozuna could leave you hampered at almost every other position, as those two have crushed righty arms with both around a .350 ISO. The bottom stack is simply about getting on base with Martinez and Fowler and sometimes that's good enough if it allows you to spend on pitching.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Adam Zdroik plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: zdroik, DraftKings: rotozdroik, Yahoo: StreakMaster.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Adam Zdroik
Adam, a 2019, 2018 and 2017 Finalist for FSWA's Soccer Writer of the Year, is RotoWire's soccer editor. He also runs RotoWire's Bracketology, as well as writes on other various college basketball content. He has previously worked at ESPN and Sporting Kansas City, and he is a former Streak for the Cash winner and Michigan State graduate.
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