The Z Files: Second Chances

Written by

Published on May 10, 2019

"The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior," is often attributed to Mark Twain. If Twain was indeed the originator of the quote, there's a good chance he would have been a successful fantasy baseball player, so long as he understood variance in small samples.

Admittedly, the impetus for this discussion is the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Second Chance Contest. These leagues will begin accruing stats after Memorial Day weekend. That said, the information is relevant to current leagues and not just targeted at those planning on participating.

I thought it would be enlightening to look at various leaderboards from last season and compare those at the top from Opening Day through Memorial Day weekend, and from after Memorial Day through the end of the regular season. The purpose isn't to identify specific players to target or avoid, either on current teams or the NFBC contest, but rather be reminded that a lot can change over the last four months of the season. Not only will individual player performance shift, but so will that of our teams. Seeing the ensuing data laid out is a great reminder to keep grinding, as well as not to get too influenced by two months of production when preparing for the Second Chance Leagues.

The first table displays the Top 20 in the five standard rotisserie categories through Memorial Day, with their rest-of-season stats included. The second table shows the same leaderboards from after Memorial Day through the end of the season.

Top

Top 20 from Opening Day though Memorial Day weekend

	BA	Pre	Post	HR	Pre	Post	Runs	Pre	Post	RBI	Pre	Post	SB	Pre	Post
1	Mookie Betts	0.359	0.339	Mookie Betts	17	15	Mookie Betts	52	77	Manny Machado	44	63	Ender Inciarte	18	10
2	Nick Markakis	0.340	0.276	Mike Trout	17	22	Ozzie Albies	46	59	J.D. Martinez	42	88	Dee Gordon	16	14
3	Scooter Gennett	0.340	0.295	J.D. Martinez	16	27	Mike Trout	45	56	Javier Baez	42	69	Trea Turner	14	29
4	Michael Brantley	0.335	0.298	Bryce Harper	16	18	George Springer	42	60	Eugenio Suarez	40	64	Mookie Betts	13	17
5	Andrelton Simmons	0.332	0.272	Manny Machado	15	22	Charlie Blackmon	41	78	Aaron Judge	39	28	Mike Trout	12	12
6	Odubel Herrera	0.331	0.217	Joey Gallo	15	25	Francisco Lindor	40	89	Bryce Harper	38	62	Jean Segura	12	8
7	Jose Altuve	0.330	0.307	Jose Ramirez	15	24	Aaron Judge	39	38	Freddie Freeman	38	60	Whit Merrifield	12	33
8	Freddie Freeman	0.325	0.302	Ozzie Albies	14	10	Tommy Pham	38	64	Khris Davis	38	85	Tim Anderson	11	15
9	Jean Segura	0.324	0.292	Aaron Judge	14	13	Chris Taylor	36	49	Jed Lowrie	38	61	Lorenzo Cain	11	19
10	Manny Machado	0.324	0.285	Christian Villanueva	14	6	Jean Segura	36	55	Mookie Betts	37	43	Michael Taylor	11	13
11	Nolan Arenado	0.324	0.285	Javier Baez	13	21	Cesar Hernandez	35	56	Jose Ramirez	37	68	Mallex Smith	11	29
12	Nicholas Castellanos	0.323	0.287	Travis Shaw	13	19	Lorenzo Cain	35	55	Scooter Gennett	37	55	Starling Marte	10	23
13	J.D. Martinez	0.320	0.336	Khris Davis	13	35	Marcus Semien	35	54	Mitch Haniger	37	56	Delino DeShields Jr.	10	10
14	Asdrubal Cabrera	0.316	0.233	Francisco Lindor	12	26	Brett Gardner	35	60	Travis Shaw	36	50	A.J. Pollock	9	4
15	Brandon Belt	0.315	0.204	Nomar Mazara	12	8	Bryce Harper	34	69	Carlos Correa	36	29	Cesar Hernandez	9	10
16	Brandon Crawford	0.315	0.224	Charlie Blackmon	12	17	Jose Ramirez	34	76	Nick Markakis	35	58	Billy Hamilton	9	25
17	Jose Abreu	0.313	0.234	Gary Sanchez	12	6	Giancarlo Stanton	34	68	Justin Upton	35	50	Leury Garcia	9	3
18	Jose Martinez	0.313	0.301	Matt Adams	12	9	Andrew Benintendi	34	69	Trevor Story	35	73	Trevor Story	8	19
19	Corey Dickerson	0.310	0.293	George Springer	11	11	J.D. Martinez	33	78	Ozzie Albies	34	38	Andrew Benintendi	8	13
20	Mike Trout	0.306	0.316	Mike Moustakas	11	17	Travis Shaw	33	40	Mike Trout	34	45	Kevin Pillar	8	6
21				C.J. Cron	11	19	Didi Gregorius	33	56	George Springer	34	37	Tommy Pham	8	7
22				Giancarlo Stanton	11	27	Freddie Freeman	33	61	Jean Segura	34	29	Jonathan Villar	8	27
23				Yangervis Solarte	11	6	Nick Markakis	33	45	Didi Gregorius	34	52	Jose Peraza	8	15
24				Justin Upton	11	19				Nomar Mazara	34	43	Adam Engel	8	8
25				Mitch Haniger	11	15				Michael Brantley	34	42	Jarrod Dyson	8	8
26				Didi Gregorius	11	16							Rajai Davis	8	13
27				Brandon Belt	11	3							Travis Jankowski	8	16
28				Edwin Encarnacion	11	21
29				Yonder Alonso	11	12
30				A.J. Pollock	11	10
31				Matt Davidson	11	9

Top 20 from after Memorial Day through the end of the season

	BA	Post	Pre	HR	Post	Pre	Runs	Post	Pre	RBI	Post	Pre	SB	Post	Pre
1	Mookie Betts	0.339	0.359	Khris Davis	35	13	Matt Carpenter	92	19	J.D. Martinez	88	42	Whit Merrifield	33	12
2	J.D. Martinez	0.336	0.320	Christian Yelich	31	5	Francisco Lindor	89	40	Christian Yelich	87	23	Adalberto Mondesi	32	0
3	Christian Yelich	0.334	0.305	Matt Carpenter	31	5	Christian Yelich	88	30	Khris Davis	85	38	Trea Turner	29	14
4	Paul Goldschmidt	0.330	0.203	Nelson Cruz	29	8	Alex Bregman	79	26	Nolan Arenado	81	29	Mallex Smith	29	11
5	Anthony Rendon	0.319	0.270	Max Muncy	29	6	J.D. Martinez	78	33	Alex Bregman	80	23	Jose Ramirez	27	7
6	Trevor Story	0.318	0.236	Nolan Arenado	28	10	Charlie Blackmon	78	41	Anthony Rendon	80	12	Jonathan Villar	27	8
7	Lorenzo Cain	0.315	0.295	Rhys Hoskins	28	6	Mookie Betts	77	52	Edwin Encarnacion	80	27	Billy Hamilton	25	9
8	Ben Zobrist	0.313	0.286	Giancarlo Stanton	27	11	Jose Ramirez	76	34	Jesus Aguilar	78	30	Starling Marte	23	10
9	Whit Merrifield	0.311	0.289	Paul Goldschmidt	27	6	Khris Davis	75	23	Nelson Cruz	76	21	Amed Rosario	22	2
10	Jose Peraza	0.308	0.248	Trevor Story	27	10	Nolan Arenado	75	29	Xander Bogaerts	76	27	Greg Allen	21	0
11	David Peralta	0.308	0.262	J.D. Martinez	27	16	Anthony Rendon	75	13	Miguel Andujar	74	18	Francisco Lindor	20	5
12	Anthony Rizzo	0.306	0.222	Francisco Lindor	26	12	Trea Turner	74	29	Trevor Story	73	35	Trevor Story	19	8
13	Joey Wendle	0.305	0.287	Alex Bregman	26	5	Juan Soto	72	5	Giancarlo Stanton	72	28	Lorenzo Cain	19	11
14	Freddie Freeman	0.302	0.325	Jesus Aguilar	26	9	Aaron Hicks	70	20	Stephen Piscotty	71	17	Christian Yelich	18	4
15	Javier Baez	0.301	0.266	Eugenio Suarez	25	9	Javier Baez	70	31	Yuli Gurriel	70	15	Mookie Betts	17	13
16	Jose Martinez	0.301	0.313	Joey Gallo	25	15	DJ LeMahieu	70	20	Javier Baez	69	42	Travis Jankowski	16	8
17	Miguel Andujar	0.300	0.289	Stephen Piscotty	24	3	Bryce Harper	69	34	Jose Ramirez	68	37	Ian Desmond	15	5
18	Matt Chapman	0.300	0.237	Jose Ramirez	24	15	Andrew Benintendi	69	34	Rhys Hoskins	68	28	Jose Peraza	15	8
19	Michael Brantley	0.298	0.335	Hunter Renfroe	24	2	Giancarlo Stanton	68	34	Anthony Rizzo	68	33	Tim Anderson	15	11
20	Charlie Blackmon	0.296	0.277	Joc Pederson	24	1	Rougned Odor	68	8	Paul Goldschmidt	67	16	Javier Baez	14	7
21	Alex Bregman	0.296	0.266				Matt Chapman	68	32	Michael Conforto	67	15	Ronald Acuna Jr.	14	2
22	Yuli Gurriel	0.296	0.278										Dee Gordon	14	16

To help gain perspective, the following players appear in the same category on both lists:

BA	Pre	Post	HR	Pre	Post	Runs	Pre	Post	RBI	Pre	Post	SB	Pre	Post
Mookie Betts	0.359	0.339	Joey Gallo	15	25	Mookie Betts	52	77	J.D. Martinez	42	88	Dee Gordon	16	14
Michael Brantley	0.335	0.298	Jose Ramirez	15	24	Charlie Blackmon	41	78	Javier Baez	42	69	Trea Turner	14	29
Freddie Freeman	0.325	0.302	Khris Davis	13	35	Francisco Lindor	40	89	Khris Davis	38	85	Whit Merrifield	12	33
J.D. Martinez	0.320	0.336	Francisco Lindor	12	26	Bryce Harper	34	69	Jose Ramirez	37	68	Tim Anderson	11	15
Jose Martinez	0.313	0.301	Giancarlo Stanton	11	27	Jose Ramirez	34	76	Trevor Story	35	73	Mallex Smith	11	29
						Giancarlo Stanton	34	68				Starling Marte	10	23
						Andrew Benintendi	34	69				Billy Hamilton	9	25
						J.D. Martinez	33	78				Trevor Story	8	19
												Jonathan Villar	8	27
												Jose Peraza	8	15
												Travis Jankowski	8	16

To reiterate, no conclusions will be drawn (yet) from the above as it relates to specific players this season, or even whether the number of players on both lists is consistent from year to year. This is only to note that there's a significant difference in the post-Memorial Day numbers. That is, at least for now, the objective isn't to determine "this year's Christian Villanueva or Matt Davidson," a couple of batters who slugged their way onto the pre-Memorial Day leaderboard before fading away. Similarly, for now, the focus isn't on identifying "this season's Matt Carpenter or Adalberto Mondesi". That will be tackled in a couple weeks.

The elegance of data of this nature is everyone can make their own observations. While doing so, keep in mind a 2018 trend may not carry over into 2019. Next week, similar data will be presented for pitchers.