The Z Files: Keeper and Dynasty League Dynamics

With Memorial Day in the rearview mirror, many are taking stock of their teams. Those in keeper and dynasty formats are deciding whether to push their chips in or fold. Between James Anderson's Farm Futures and Top 400 Prospect Rankings along with Ian Kahn's newly refreshed Dynasty Rankings, there's a wealth of player-related content available to aid the process. What follows is a general discussion of keeper and dynasty league dynamics, a topic warranting more attention from industry pundits.

Before delving too deep, it's necessary to distinguish keeper from dynasty leagues. There isn't a textbook definition, so everyone has their own distinction. For me, it's about player turnover. In keeper leagues, there's a wealth of available players of all levels in the draft pool while dynasty league drafts consist mostly of prospects and fringe players.

There are three means for players to enter the draft pool:

1. Expiring contracts
2. Cost-prohibitive contracts
3. Limited number of keepers

The combination of these delineate keeper from dynasty. The first two are universal traits of keeper leagues. The number of keepers varies, but the lower the limit, the greater the player turnover.

True dynasty leagues allow players to be retained ad infinitum so there aren't expiring or cost-prohibitive contracts. Additionally, dynasty leagues permit maintaining virtually the entire roster from year to year.

From a game theory perspective, winning a keeper league should entail sacrificing an appreciable portion of future for present help, usually of the non-keeper variety. Dynasty league champions also need to make deals involving prospects though not to the extent of keeper formats. The main repercussion is top prospects are frequently traded in keeper leagues but not in dynasty formats.

The reason for the difference is keeper leagues have top-end talent available in the draft to supplement a solid freeze list, while everyone comprising an active fantasy lineup will be retained on a dynasty roster. There are some in keeper formats aiming to compete one year, rebuild the next – lather, rinse, repeat. This cycle isn't as effective in dynasty leagues.

Some leagues are essentially hybrid keeper-dynasty formats. That is, there's limited, but some player turnover. The way to enact this is a combination of slow yearly salary escalators, contacts without expiration and many keepers. An example of a hybrid format is the XFL, a 15-team mixed league composed of regular attendees of First Pitch Arizona. In fact, the auction is held in Phoenix in the fall, with a 17-man supplemental draft in March. We allow 15 keepers, including farm players. Contracts don't expire but they do accelerate by $3 for prospects and $5 for everyone else. As such, there's a chance Mike Trout (as an example) won't be available in the auction until the twilight of his career since he was drafted as a farm player, so his contract goes up by just $3 each season. This year, Trout is just $25. He'll be $28 in 2020, etc. One of the elegant features of this setup is some play it with more of a keeper tilt while others treat it as a straight dynasty, using several March drafts to assimilate a foundation to compete for several years.

It used to be so-called trading didn't occur until later in the season, usually commencing late June, early July. However, over the past several years, teams are looking to rebuild earlier and earlier. In the XFL, we often see deals of this nature before the season even starts. Manners to control or curtail this are better suited for an offseason piece. The rest of this discussion will revolve around in-season keeper and dynasty leagues dynamics.

While those in redraft leagues are contemplating ways to move up in the standings, keeper and dynasty league enthusiasts are pondering whether there's a legit chance to compete. While not all leagues award jellybeans to the top teams, this is a huge consideration. Is it worth shooting for the third-most ovular sugary confections, or be patient another year to go for it all next season?

The process requires gauging what can be acquired in dump trades versus what others will obtain to fortify their teams. This isn't easy, requiring a handle on league tendencies. What's the usual going rate for a deal – is it one prospect for one stud? Two for one? One for two? Which competitor prefers to deal all their useful talent in one blockbuster and who opts to spread the wealth?

Complicating matters is many leagues don't have a going rate. That is, dump trades are what the market is willing to bear. Further, equity in dump trades is even more subjective than standard redraft leagues.

Let's explore the equity issue, since it's perhaps the most overlooked and underappreciated aspect of keeper and dynasty formats. In redraft leagues the proper currency is points. Some may use perceived value, but the correct approach is how the exchange helps both clubs in the standings. That isn't an option is keeper and dynasty leagues. Some may attempt to objectively value players over a multi-season basis. While I appreciate the effort, trying to find a swap involving "$30 of value for this season for $30 next year" is an exercise in futility. Not only is the math even more of a guess than standard valuation, you can't put a price on winning. That is, even if it is possible to trade exact future for present value, it should cost the would-be champion more than they give up since the in-season production renders a championship.

In keeper leagues, equity is controlled by the market, really nothing more than Economics 101, supply and demand. Going rate often doesn't exist, as the supply and demand ratio changes after every trade. The win-now competitor having the top available keeper and the rebuilder with the best available stud are in the driver's seats. They're not looking for equity; they're looking to leverage their respective top assets into the maximum return. After each deal, the supply and demand balance changes.

The pink elephant in all this is some individuals are better horse traders. Yes, reading the market is important as is being a strong salesman. That said, there's a uniqueness to dump trading. In redraft leagues, exchanges can be viewed and analyzed objectively. The subjective nature of dump trading introduces a human element in which some excel while others fall short. Some of it is patience, but it's also the ability to read the other person and quite frankly, possess the mindset to say no. Dump trades should be business deals, nothing personal. Trust me, I know first hand. The artistry to juggle offers, landing on the best one then having to tell the rest, "Sorry, I'm going elsewhere," is hard for some.

With that as a backdrop, here's a punch list for optimizing keeper and dynasty league deals:

• Make an honest assessment of your team.
• If deciding to rebuild in keeper leagues with significant player turnover, get rid of everything you're not going to keep, assuming you can withstand or absorb any penalty in place to discourage dumping.
• If deciding to continue to build a foundation in dynasty leagues, gauge how many more years it will take and trade away anyone likely not to be useful at that time. If your candid appraisal calls for another two or three years of patience, which is not uncommon, deal the likes of Charlie Blackmon or Justin Verlander to a contender. Always be willing to deal a closer.
• In almost all instances, let everyone know of your intentions, be it dumping or dealing keepers. The exception is when it's best to negotiate covertly with one person. Most often, this occurs when you're looking to acquire the top keeper or best available stud and you don't want to get the rest of the league involved.
• When assimilating a freeze list, favor quality over quantity, not being afraid to retain higher-priced players. Too many amass as many low-priced players as possible. Sometimes there's a breakout guy among them, but usually they're no better than can be acquired at the following season's draft or auction for the same price. After finalizing your keeper list, you should lie awake at night, unable to sleep all winter in anticipation of the impending season.
• If you're rebuilding, don't sweat a trade giving an edge to a top team. One dump deal should not decide a championship. There should be a series of trades. It's the onus of the other competitors to sacrifice their future, just as the person you traded with did.
• In dynasty leagues, don't ignore pitching. Conventional wisdom is to focus on bats in freeze lists. While today's landscape loosens the reins in that regard, the hit rate on prospect hitters is still better than pitchers. In dynasty leagues, you're not drafting established pitching, so arms must be acquired as prospects and hope you land on an ace or two.
• If you're in contention and miss out on the early wave of dump trades, don't fret. Standings will change. Competing teams change their mind, availing a whole new set of players to fortify your roster. Maybe you don't have the best keepers but after the other teams deal their prospects, your farm players are the most attractive on the market. This is all part of the transient nature of supply and demand.
• Most importantly, treat it as a business. No one will unfollow or unfriend you if you reject a deal. It's not personal.