Mound Musings: Examining Trade Deadline Pitching Repercussions

The trade deadline has come and gone, and we finally have some more exciting deals to discuss! Everybody was looking for pitching – not at all surprising given the many injuries and sub-par performances on the mounds this season – but there weren't all that many starting pitchers available who were perceived to be difference makers, and several of those didn't move. That didn't slow down all of the contenders however; many just shifted their focus to hopefully bolster their bullpens. Let's see how changes in latitudes might impact the key arms involved:

Marcus Stroman to New York (NL):

Stroman was the first name pitcher to change uniforms. Being dealt was expected, but where he landed certainly qualifies as a surprise. The Mets were apparently serious, as they dispatched two decent pitching prospects to Toronto. Southpaw Anthony Kay is close to MLB-ready. It could even happen this year although he has struggled with his command a bit at Triple-A. If not this year, he has shown the ability to adjust to higher level competition and should have a chance at a back-of-the-rotation spot in 2020. He features a solid fastball, with a promising curve and a so-so change. He has modest tools. Simeon Woods Richardson probably has a higher ceiling, but he's just 18 (although he pitches older), so it will likely be a couple years before we see him in Toronto. As for Stroman, from a fantasy perspective, this is probably a sideways move. He goes from one weaker team to another. The Mets can be very defensively challenged – possibly problematic for a pitcher who pitches to contact – but the move to the NL East from the American League could provide a slight boost.

Jordan Lyles to Milwaukee:

For most teams (including fantasy teams) this acquisition wouldn't move the needle, but the Brewers are in dire need of starting pitching as they compete for a postseason berth in the most contentious division in MLB, especially with Brandon Woodruff recently landing on the injured list. Already in his ninth year, the 28-year-old righty has flashed potential, but his career has always been on again/off again. He sports a 5.29 ERA with an equally weak 1.46 WHIP across 851 innings, so, while that might be a small boost to the Milwaukee rotation, fantasy owners would need to hope for one of those often brief "on again" stretches to reap any benefit. About the only legitimate bonus for Lyles might be a couple more wins pitching in front of the Brewers' prolific offense.

Jason Vargas to Philadelphia:

In the Lyles category for likely fantasy impact, Vargas goes to a team that needs starting pitching almost as much as the Brewers. His ERA with the Mets was a modest 4.01 with a 1.27 WHIP, but he's probably not quite that good. The 36-year-old veteran lefty gets by on an assortment of junk that he does a decent job of mixing up and scattering to the various edges of the plate, but he has to locate his pitches nearly perfectly because he's not going to blow anyone away (his 84 mph fastball often makes radar guns yawn). He'll throw an occasional start, but the downside makes him risky for fantasy teams. His impact does include the loss of a rotation spot for Zach Eflin, but if he was in your rotation, Vargas might not be a terrible alternative.

Trevor Bauer to Cincinnati:

Clearly the second trade deadline head-scratcher, the Indians filled a huge need with two right-handed hitting outfielders, the Padres scored a very highly regarded prospect, and Bauer lands with a team that is in fourth place in their division, and they remain a longshot. He gives the Reds a pretty impressive rotation top-three with Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray, but I don't see it being enough for 2019, and it probably limits the potential boost for arguably the best starting pitcher to change uniforms this season. It doesn't make a lot of sense, so my first thought was the Reds think they can flip Bauer before the deadline and net a huge package. That never materialized, and Bauer will step into the Reds' rotation, at least this year and quite possibly beyond.

Tanner Roark to Oakland:

On the surface this probably seems like a relatively minor move, but Roark's fantasy value should bump up a bit. His 4.24 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP have made him a modest option in deeper leagues, but he's allowed too may baserunners and 14 homers in 110 innings, which should come down somewhat in his new home ballpark. Couple that with a career high strikeout rate and playing in front of a better team and he could become viable in a few more fantasy leagues. He's not an ace, obviously, but worthy of some thought as a spot starter or possible streamer.

Zac Gallen and Mike Leake to Arizona:

An interesting day for the Diamondbacks. They sent their ace to Houston for a fair package of minor leaguers to marginally bolster their farm system, but they also added a couple of pitchers that, while not replacements for Greinke, do add some depth to their rotation. Gallen has pitched surprisingly well since coming up with Miami, but don't get too carried away. He does join a better team, both offensively and defensively, but he features rather ordinary stuff and profiles as a No. 4 or 5 starter. The veteran Leake is capable of decent performance over stretches, but he is inconsistent and doesn't receive quite as much boost in the change from Seattle to Arizona. I like that he throws strikes, but he doesn't miss many bats and that limits his fantasy value.

Zack Greinke and Aaron Sanchez to Houston:

They saved the best for last – unless you are a Yankees fan. After they were pretty much shutout in the Bronx, the Astros swooped in and completed the deal of the day. And, they accomplished that without breaking the bank. Greinke becomes Houston's third starter. Verlander, Cole, Greinke. That's almost obscene. Incidentally, that trio finished 1-2-3 in WHIP among qualifying starters in 2018. Adding Sanchez, who was an ERA frontrunner as recently as 2016 was just icing on the cake. The challenge here will be getting him in sync and keeping him healthy enough to function as their fifth starter. In my opinion, these deals make the Astros the clear favorites to represent the American League in the World Series. Both pitchers deserve a fairly substantial bump in value, albeit there is some risk with Sanchez.

And, in the bullpen, there were several moves of note …

Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson to Minnesota:

Romo was the first "closer" to be dealt as the trading deadline approached. I used the reference "closer" because he has always been a better ser-up guy who has often found himself thrust into a ninth-inning role. Bottom line, the Twins found themselves two nice, veteran, insurance policies in Romo and Dyson who can slot into the late innings as they chase a division title. Their current closer, Taylor Rogers, is clearly the better pitcher at this point in their careers, and I would be surprised if he doesn't continue to get most of the save chances. 

Chris Martin to Atlanta:

This one offers potential fantasy impact. After a couple brief trials with the Rockies and Yankees, Martin pitched for the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan during the 2016-17 seasons. He served as the Ham Fighters' closer for part of that tour, logging a sparkling 1.12 ERA with 22 saves over the two seasons. He returned to the States last year and has been generally effective in the late innings this season with four saves. The back of the bullpen has been a problem all season for the Braves, and Luke Jackson is a good set-up guy, but he has been treading water as their closer, so Martin could work his way into the saves mix with a few solid outings.

Shane Greene and Mark Melancon to Atlanta:

Things can change quickly. The above mentioned Martin and Jackson probably moved to the eighth inning with Atlanta's acquisition of Greene just a few minutes before the deadline bell. Greene is a proven closer who is enjoying a stellar season, and it is virtually guaranteed he will soon be handling the ninth inning for the Braves. At about the same time, it was announced that Atlanta had acquired Melancon from the Giants. This is a seriously committed response to division-rival Washington, which made major additions to their bullpen earlier in the day (see below).

Hunter Strickland, Roenis Elias, and Daniel Hudson to Washington:

Wow! The Nationals restructured their bullpen, all in an afternoon. The black hole that has been in the space between their top-shelf rotation and steady closer Sean Doolittle just got a lot brighter. For these three, Elias becomes a non-closer, Strickland, who has just returned from the injured list, loses his chance to return to a ninth-inning gig, and Hudson remains in a set-up role, so there isn't much positive fantasy impact (unless you are in a holds league), but owning any of the Nationals starters' hopefully gets a lot less frustrating. All three should see work in the seventh and eighth innings.

Trevor Richards and Nick Anderson to Tampa Bay:

These two raise eyebrows because of where they landed as much as anything else. Tampa Bay is where talented, but flawed, pitchers go to grow and prosper. Anderson has an electric arm, and he's a strikeout machine (14.2 K/9). That is when he throws the ball in the general vicinity of home plate. If the Rays can find a way to lock in his release point, something they excel at, he has closer stuff. Richards was pretty pedestrian as a starter in Miami, but I like his stuff better than the peripherals would translate, so he too is a prime candidate to step up with his new club. They are painfully thin in their starting rotation, so there is a chance he eventually gets a shot at taking a turn every five days.

And, on the fringe:

There were quite a few other relievers dealt at the deadline. For example, the Astros added bullpen depth in Joe Biagini, the Dodgers picked up lefty Adam Kolarek, the A's bolstered their already deep bullpen with experienced set-up man Jake Diekman, and Hunter Wood moved from Tampa Bay to Cleveland. The Cubs added Brad Wieck, Derek Holland and David Phelps. The Brewers tried to shore up their shaky pen with Jake Faria, Ray Black and Drew Pomeranz, which could help but doesn't address their rotation needs. In one of the more interesting bullpen additions, if the Padres can straighten out Carl Edwards Jr., he could be a force at the back of their pen.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• He's not a trade acquisition but Danny Salazar is about to return to the mound for the Indians. He hasn't pitched in the big leagues since 2017 due to a serious shoulder injury. Shoulder, long layoff, inevitable rust, all add up to major question marks, but this guy was once a top-of-the-rotation arm. Do you feel lucky?
• I was initially somewhat skeptical of Arizona's Taylor Clarke, but he is gradually winning me over. His secondary stuff – slider and changeup – is just average, but he locates everything very well, and he displays a good feel for pitch mix. He could offer some value in deeper leagues if he keeps this up.
• Justin Verlander keeps reinventing himself. He's always had a top shelf fastball, a wicked curve and a baffling changeup, but now he's also throwing what they are calling a slider. It's a slider grip, but I've never seen a pitch move like that. Hitters apparently haven't either as they are hitting .113 against it.
• Just hours before the trade deadline, the Mets pulled Noah Syndergaard off the market. Under contract until 2021, the reluctance to deal him is understandable, but I think a move could have been good for both Thor and the Mets. He could still be dealt in the offseason, but if not, the Mets have a loaded rotation.
• The Yankees will have to find pitching help internally. A very big part of that will be the anticipated return of Luis Severino. He is expected to resume mound work in the near future, but even if everything goes smoothly, at this late date he will probably do well to give the bullpen a boost sometime in September.
• The Dodgers were quiet on deadline day, but don't count them out. They have announced that top pitching prospect, Dustin May, will make his MLB debut Friday. He has very good stuff including a fastball, cutter and curve. Still developing, his future is in the rotation, but he can help their bullpen now.

Endgame Odyssey:

Outside the additions brought about by deadline deals, there appear to be a few others transitions occurring. With Greene now in Atlanta, the closer-of the-future in Detroit is likely the closer of today. I am still lukewarm on Joe Jimenez as a closer, but he should get the chance to prove himself. Seattle dealt both Elias and Strickland to Washington leaving their bullpen a veritable wasteland. There is literally no one who profiles as a closer, so a committee is a distinct possibility. If forced to take a guy, I suppose I would opt for Anthony Bass. In other bullpen news, with Shawn Kelley hurt, and Martin gone, Jose Leclerc might be the last man standing in the Rangers' pen. He still has the tools, but he has struggled when asked to close. I would approach with caution. In Arizona, Greg Holland has pitched his way out of the ninth inning. They have a few options including Archie Bradley who has rebounded from a rough first half. They might be holding open auditions. In Oakland, Liam Hendriks has stumbled a bit recently, which could lead to Blake Treinen moving back into the ninth inning. The Phillies did little to bolster their pitching staff, compounded by the news that David Robertson is now out for the season.