Collette Calls: September Stats

The season is winding down and owners in contention are hoping for some final pushes in the counting categories in the final month of the season. Let's look at what recent history tells us about each counting category so we can level set our expectations.

Home Runs

Albert Belle holds half the record for home runs in the final season when he cranked out 17 home runs in his final 28 games of the 1995 season. The other half belongs to some guy named George Ruth who did the same thing, in the same amount of games, in 1927.  Last season, Trevor Story had the most home runs in the final month with 11, and only he, Luke Voit and Christian Yelich had as many as 10 home runs down the stretch. 

The only active players to twice hit as many as 10 home runs in the final month of the season are:

• Chris Davis (2012, 2015)
• Miguel Cabrera (2012, 2016)

It is indeed a rare unicorn, so much so that only 115 players have ever done so. Hank Greenberg and Harmon Killebrew did it five times in their career, but only 27 players have ever done it multiple times. This tells us to potentially look elsewhere for the source this year as Story, Voit and Yelich have the odds stacked against them for a repeat in 2019. 

A few names to consider for September 2019: Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano, Franmil Reyes. Deeeeep sleeper: Ryan McMahon

Runs Batted In

Thirty runs driven in over a month is a high threshold and rarely accomplished. Yelich accomplished it last year, and both J.D. Martinez and Aaron Judge did it in 2017. In the last 10 years, three seasons have had multiple players do it, but who knows in this current crazy run environment what is in store this September. Lowering the requirement to 25 RBIs gives us 5-7 players each of the last few seasons who have driven in that many runners. In this category, there are few surprises, but they can happen. Nick Williams drove in 25 runners in September 2017 and seemingly hasn't driven in 25 since. 

No active player has ever repeated a 25-RBI month in the last five seasons. The only player to do so is David Ortiz, who did so in both 2015 and 2016. Last year, the following players drove in at least 25: Yelich, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Piscotty, David Dahl and Michael Conforto.

RBIs are all about where a guy hits in the batting order more than any particular skill. You know by now where your guys are hitting on your team and whether they are in run-producing spots. The key is to look for the favorable schedules and matchups to exploit. I've highlighted Minnesota's ridiculously easy schedule next month, so the run producers there could have very productive months beating up on Detroit, Kansas City and non-Giolito/Lopez pitching the rest of the way. 

Some names to watch: Freddie Freeman, Rafael Devers, Eric Hosmer. Deep sleeper - Corey Dickerson

Runs

Believe it or not, scoring 25 runs in September is tougher than walking on air. It has been done all of 11 times the last five seasons, and never repeated. 

• 2014: None
• 2015: Mookie Betts (26), Xander Bogaerts (25), Shin-Soo Choo (30), Chris Davis (27), Bryce Harper (26), Christian Yelich (25)
• 2016: Curtis Granderson (25)
• 2017: Brian Dozier (29), Aaron Judge (29), J.D. Martinez (26)
• 2018: Tommy Pham (26)

Max Kepler and DJ LeMahieu appear to be well-positioned to make that happen in 2019. Rather surprising George Springer or Jose Altuve have not found their way on this list yet either, but that could change this year. 

Steals

There have been just eight players to steal at least 10 bases in September in the last five seasons. Dee Gordon has done it three times, while Jonathan Villar has twice done so. Last year, teammates Adalberto Mondesi and Whit Merrifield both did it while Mallex Smith did so with Tampa Bay. 

We have 109 instances of a player stealing at least five bases in September, with nearly half of them barely clearing that bar:

Wins

Are you hoping a pitcher comes up with five wins for you in September? Good luck with trying to nail down that Jello. Last year, if you rostered Blake Snell, Miles Mikolas, Rich Hill, Kyle Freeland or Jose Urena, you got five wins from those guys. Justin Verlander? He's only done that once in the last five seasons. Max Scherzer? Also one time. The same with Collin McHugh and Cody Anderson. 

We cannot just look at that easy Minnesota schedule and pluck a pitcher given Jose Berrios is all sorts of terrible, and Kyle Gibson is not too far behind him. Perhaps Jake Odorizzi can five and dive his way through September and get the wins. You should feel good about all of your Astros starters as well, but best plans here are budget for two wins from each of your starters and take the rest as gravy. 

Saves

Eight saves seems like a reasonable target to set for your closer in a single month, yes? What if I told you that happened just 22 times in the last five seasons and just twice last year — by Felipe Vazquez and Roberto Osuna. The year before that, it was Hector Noesi, Corey Knebel, Sean Doolittle and Cody Allen. The two closers for the team in the World Series didn't make the list last year, so having the closer on the winningest teams isn't a lock either. A more realistic target is five saves for your top closer, and three for your others. If you add up those projected totals, that gives you a realistic chance at what you may need to close the gap in your league. 

Or, you could be like AL Tout Wars where the third place team in saves has 40 and the seventh place team has 37 saves. Every one will count down the stretch in that league. 

Strikeouts

40 strikeouts in a month seems like a high bar, but it is surprisingly not.

Roster expansion in September presents a larger sample size of hitters, and inexperienced ones seeing major league offspeed stuff and sequencing for the first time since spring training. I believe the 2015 season crept into October a few days, which explains the higher total, but 12 guys achieved the bar last year and there were no surprising names in the bunch. Three of the pitchers — Kluber, Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole — got their 40-plus strikeouts in one fewer start than the other nine pitchers last year. 

I would expect the usual suspects to do this again in September, but look for Yu Darvish to join the fun with possibly Sonny Gray and James Paxton sneaking in at the end. 

We are in the final stretch, and the great thing about counting categories is that they only go one direction — up. The key is to know where you realistically have a chance to close gaps in the categorical standings as you set your lineups the remaining few weeks. Good luck!