The Z Files: My Top 20 Shortstops

Apologies for the late posting, I was busy with a couple other projects this week. Before digging into what is the plushest shortstop inventory ever, there have been several important changes to the lists already discussed. As such, before moving onto outfielders, next week's episode will feature the updated lists with detailed explanations for the adjustments.

As mentioned, shortstop is loaded. It's easily the strongest of the infield positions this season, and it's the best it's ever been. The scary thing is, the depth and strength at the position should only get better. The position is flush with emerging talent while being devoid of aging veterans on the downswing.

By means of reminder, enough players will be listed such that pithy blurbs for 20 players not yet reviewed will be provided. Six made the cut elsewhere, so here's my top 26.

26. Nico Hoerner, Chicago Cubs

Hoerner's late-season callup was more out of necessity than design, with Javier Baez banged up down the stretch and the organization lacking other viable options. Hoerner took advantage, slashing .282/.305/.436 in 20 games. He didn't attempt any steals but could swipe low double digits if afforded regular playing time. Speaking of which, the Cubs have several in-house candidates for their vacancy at second base, plus the free agent inventory is replete at the keystone. Even so, Hoerner's strong audition should earn him a good look. The early guess here is he becomes the primary second baseman.

25. Jon Berti, Miami Marlins

Covered in My Top 20 Third Baseman. The big drop is fallout from the Jonathan Villar trade and will be discussed next week.

24. Didi Gregorius, Free Agent

It's as if Yankee Stadium was built for Gregorius. If he were staying in the Bronx, he would land in the high teens. His pull approach is perfect for the venue, corroborated by a very short average fly ball distance. Truth be told, Gregorius could still move up depending on where he signs, but he could also drop off the list entirely.

23. Dansby Swanson, Atlanta Braves

Here's a testament to how strong shortstop is this season. I look at Swanson and figure he has to be higher on the list, then I look to see who should be bumped and there isn't anyone obvious. While a .747 OPS isn't exactly a breakout, it beats his past couple of campaigns. At one point, he was hitting from the two-hole, a nice spot for runs in a potent Braves lineup. With everyone healthy, Swanson likely hits lower, another reason his rank is where it is. He's still mixed-league worthy. Consider him a middle infielder with upside.

22. Paul DeJong, St. Louis Cardinals

DeJong possesses an interesting batted ball profile. He's a fly ball hitter, which obviously benefits home runs. However, his average exit velocity is just 20th percentile, seemingly out of whack with hitting 30 homers, especially with Busch Stadium as his home digs. The next step is checking out average fly ball distance, as that is an indicator of homers. My expectation was it would be short, thus deeming DeJong lucky. Well, the opposite was true; his average fly ball distance was 43rd longest, well over 90th percentile. It turns out his average exit velocity on fly balls is four mph faster than average, while he hits grounders slower than most. This not only explains the power, but also the low BABIP. Keep in mind, this is more descriptive than predictive. This is what happened in 2019, not necessarily what will happen again in 2020.

21. Kevin Newman, Pittsburgh Pirates

Covered in My Top 20 Second Baseman

20. Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers

Seager wouldn't be the first in his family to look like a perennial .300 hitter when he first broke into the big leagues, only settle for a productive career below expectations. That said, the jury is still out on little brother. Injuries have curtailed development, though Statcast data isn't encouraging. Seager's hard-hit rate is dropping, though his contact remains excellent. With respect to 2020, some are still drafting the name brand. For the price, give me big brother Kyle.

19. Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers

Andrus bounced back from, by far, the worst season of his career. His 2019 performance wasn't to the level he'd displayed previously, but it was passable. Most notably, when everyone else was smashing fly balls over fences, Andrus was returning to the 30-steal plateau for the first time since 2013. He turned 31 last August and his sprint speed is 46th percentile. Stolen base efficiency isn't all about running speed, but being on the other side of 30 and losing a step doesn't paint a rosy picture.

18. Amed Rosario, New York Mets

The difference between adjacent places in the batting order is about 18 plate appearances a season. In a vacuum, that may not seem like much. However, a batter hitting second all season will accrue almost 100 more plate appearances than one hitting eighth. This isn't the exact scenario for Rosario, but it helps frame how many more chances a hitter gets hitting closer to the top. The young Met hit in every spot but third and fourth, but he spent the majority of the year hitting leadoff, seventh or eighth. It's early, but most project for Rosario to begin the season hitting in the bottom third, tempering his counting stats. It's noteworthy he stole as many bases (five) hitting eighth as he did hitting first in 63 PA, so his running frequency may not suffer at the bottom of the order, just his number of raw PA.

17. Jean Segura, Philadelphia Phillies

Segura's string of three straight seasons batting over .300 was snapped last season and he ran a whole lot less. Statcast numbers suggest he was outhitting his xBA the past few seasons, so 2019 could simply be his luck running out. Speaking of running, Segura's sprint speed is 65th percentile, adequate to swipe bags, and he was only caught twice. Sometimes volume there represents managerial tendencies. With Joe Girardi replacing Gabe Kapler, we'll see what happens.

16. Carlos Correa, Houston Astros

Correa continues to flash the talent he displayed earlier in his career but hasn't played a full season since 2016. While last season's rib injury can be deemed a fluke (it occurred due to an in-home massage), recurring back problems down the stretch and into the playoffs are worrisome. There is a price where it's worth seeing if Correa can avoid the injury bug. This feels about right.

15. Manny Machado, San Diego Padres

Covered in My Top 20 Third Basemen

14. Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays

Bichette impressed in his near two-month debut, especially in the power department. We can crunch the numbers, account for age, factor in MLEs and we'll still have no idea how he'll follow up in 2020. Some of Bichette's power was supported by the underlying metrics, specifically a 44 percent hard-hit rate. However, his fly ball rate is low, so he'll need to maintain a hefty 22.4% HR/FB clip. He will turn 22 years old in March and has a wonderful career in store. Keep short-term expectations in check.

13. Jorge Polanco, Minnesota Twins

Polanco built on last season's growth plus added some pop, no doubt aided by the funky baseball. Based on 2018's poor stolen base success rate, it's no surprise he didn't run much. While most of the players at the position have some measure of upside, Polanco is more of a floor player, relying on contact and 79th percentile sprint speed to prop up his BABIP. Hitting high in a productive Twins order helps keep runs plentiful.

12. Tim Anderson, Chicago White Sox

There are some still waiting for the other shoe to drop. All season long, the party line was Anderson could not sustain a BABIP north of .400. They were right, it ended at .399. His hard-hit rate and average exit velocity spiked, but even so, they were around 39th percentile. Sometimes soft contact is advantageous for speedy guys, and Anderson's sprint season is 88th percentile. While there was no doubt some luck involved, his contact has improved for three seasons. Curiously, despite a near 80-point spike in OBP, Anderson ran less, though he battled through ankle woes most of the summer.

11. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres

Not only are Tatis and Bichette second-generation talents, they profile similarly heading into their sophomore campaign. Tatis has an extra month in the majors under his belt along with having a bit more prospect pedigree, but it's just as futile trying to come up with a 2020 expectation, at least in terms of batting average. He should continue to provide the power-speed combo so envied in today's landscape. Tatis hits the ball harder than Bichette but makes less contact.

10. Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees

Covered in My Top 20 Second Baseman

9. Jonathan Villar Miami Marlins

Covered in My Top 20 Second Baseman but ranked dropped after the move to South Beach -- details next week.

8. Marcus Semien, Oakland Athletics

At first blush, Semien's power surge could be a result of the reduced-drag ball. However, he exhibited similar power metrics in 2016. In both seasons, his HR/FB was around 15%, compared to below 10% in between. While his overall hard-hit rate was higher in the power-laden years, the driving force was an increased average exit velocity on fly balls. This falls under the mantra of being more descriptive than predictive. That said, Semien's skills in general are better now, so he's likely to retain some of the gains and post a double-digit HF/FB rate. He's also good for low double-digit steals, icing on the cake.

7. Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs

As opposed to recent seasons, Baez enters next year eligible at just shortstop and it's likely to stay that way. Durability is an issue, as he has only exceeded 145 games once. Still, 145 games of Baez are better than a full season from most players. On paper, plate skills remain an issue as he continues to be allergic to walks while fanning at an elevated clip, but a consistently excellent BABIP masks that deficiency. Baez's running game took a step back, in terms of both frequency and success. He deserves the benefit of the doubt as injuries could have played a part.

6. Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox

Many thought Bogaerts had emerging power and he proved them right with a career-high 33 long balls. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate have been steadily climbing without taking away from a very good contact rate. The Red Sox as a team did less running than the 108-win squad from the previous year, as they could afford to be more aggressive. While it's not prudent to expect Bogaerts to run more, if the opportunities present themselves, he could certainly pick up the pace.

5. Adalberto Mondesi, Kansas City Royals

While Mondesi's power dipped, he demonstrated 2018's breakout was real. In what was essentially two-thirds of a season he swiped 43 bases, suggesting he could have challenged for 60 if he didn't hurt his shoulder. That brings us to the primary concern, as he had his 2019 cut short with season-ending shoulder surgery that could cause him to miss the beginning of the 2020 campaign. Mondesi's status should become clearer in the spring, but if it's apparent he won't miss much time, steals are so valuable he could move up a spot or two, despite the next four names all being potential first-round selections.

4. Alex Bregman, Houston Astros

Covered in My Top 20 Third Baseman

3. Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies

There's really not much to say, Story's 2019 was a near carbon copy of 2018 and there's no reason to expect anything different this season.

2. Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians

Most fantasy studs have elite skills while some are a bit less talented but are durable, so their top status is boosted by volume. It's not a slight on Lindor to suggest his skills fall short of guys like Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, Ronald Acuna and even Mookie Betts, but compiling 684, 723 and 745 plate appearances from 2016-2018 drove a first-round ranking. The risk with this kind of player was illustrated last year when Lindor missed three weeks to open the season. Of course, after that, he didn't miss a game other than the first game of a double-header on the day he was activated.

1. Trea Turner, Washington Nationals

Turner's power-speed combo lands him atop this talented group. Durability is a question, though the time he missed last season was a result of getting hit on the hand while attempting a bunt. There's a train of thought that suggests despite his value in a vacuum, Turner isn't the type of player to take early -- strategically, you're better off picking someone with more power and less speed. I know a guy who took down The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational drafting Turner with the sixth overall pick who feels otherwise.