Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Greetings and salutations, prospect aficionados!  The Minor League Barometer is back.  Oh, how we've missed you.  Some bureaucratic red tape first.  This article will give a weekly snapshot of the minor league baseball scene, providing statistics and analysis on those prospects helping or hurting their respective causes.  This is not meant to be a ranking of prospects, and with limited space available it is impossible to mention every neophyte making headlines in a given week.  That  said, comments and questions are encouraged as we explore the vast landscape of the minor league system together.

With the season still a couple weeks away, we will start with some of the more obvious names to target, including those who are much closer to the big leagues.  Spoiler alert: Wander Franco, Jo Adell and Gavin Lux are pretty good!  However, as the season progresses, this article will tend to shy away from the more obvious names and dive deeper and deeper into the recesses of the minor leagues to attempt to give you that head start you need when it comes to prospecting.

Now that we've gone over the fine print, let's look at some trendy phenoms as we immerse ourselves in the warm, crystal clear waters of prospect goodness.

UPGRADE

Dylan Carlson, OF, STL – Carlson might be my favorite impact prospect for the 2020 campaign.  He's hands down the No. 1 prospect in the Cardinals' system.  He had 26 home runs with 20 steals in 2019, mostly at Double-A.  He tore the cover off the ball during his brief stint at Triple-A, batting .361/.418/.681 with five home runs and two steals in just 18 games.  As we will talk about profusely in this week's article, sometimes opportunity is just as important as talent.  Check out Carlson's competition for at-bats in the St. Louis outfield: Tyler O'Neill, Dexter Fowler, Harrison Bader, Lane Thomas and maybe Tommy Edman.  Not exactly a "who's who" of stud outfielders.  Add a hot start to the spring (10-for-28) and Carlson could end up as a starter for the Cardinals when camp breaks, or at worst a call-up before May 1.  When the power, speed and advanced approach at the dish are combined with his youth, it's no wonder he has shot up the prospect rankings into elite status.

Luis Robert, OF, CHW – Robert is getting the most pub of any impact prospect for 2020 since signing a lucrative contract in January and being handed the keys to center field by the White Sox.  The 22-year-old is a power/speed dynamo; Robert had 32 home runs and 36 steals across three levels in 2020.  He has all the makings of a fantasy star, with a small caveat; he struck out 129 times in 122 games, while drawing just 28 walks.  Strikeouts are not viewed as negatively as they used to be, but there could some growing pains as he adjusts to pitching at the big-league level.  Robert's upside is tantalizing, and he should get all the at-bats he can handle, but there is the possibility he starts out slow and there is an adjustment period.

Jarred Kelenic, OF, SEA – The Mariners are in rebuilding mode, so take your pick in terms of impact prospects, or at least those with opportunity.  Evan White could start at first base, while Jake Fraley mans one of the corner outfield spots.  But neither of those prospects has the upside or star potential of Kelenic.  I vacillated here between Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez; the latter might have the best tools of any prospect not named Wander Franco in the minors.  However, all Kelenic has done is hit since coming over from the Mets organization, he is a year older than Rodriguez and finished the season at Double-A.  He is 5-for-20 with a home run in spring training.  He could be aggressively pushed.  While he is unlikely to begin the year with the big club, he has far more upside than guys like White or Fraley. 

Nate Pearson, P, TOR – The Blue Jays graduated a bevy of offensive players to the big leagues last season, but the real need for Toronto comes in the starting rotation.  Even with the signing of Hyun-Jin Ryu, the Blue Jays will need more arms in a division where they will have to face lineups like the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox.  Enter Pearson, the flame-throwing righty who has dominated early this spring.  He hasn't allowed a hit through five innings, while fanning nine batters.  The Jays have remained steadfast in their alleged refusal to start him in the majors in 2020, as he's pitched just three games at Triple-A and does have a checkered injury history.  That said, if he continues to blow away the competition, Toronto might have no choice but to leave him on the roster.

CHECK STATUS

Spencer Howard, P, PHI – The Phillies have veteran options to fill the back end of the rotation to begin the season, but just because they are veteran, doesn't mean they are better.  Jake Arrieta, Zach Eflin, Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta were downright awful at times last season, and thus opportunity could knock for Howard if he pitches well this spring.  The top prospect for the Phils and one of the better arms in the minors, the polished righty found little resistance during his brief time at both High-A and Double-A last season.  Batters hit a putrid .173 overall against the 23-year-old, with the only knock being a shoulder issue that knocked him out for two months earlier in 2019.  Howard also had a minor knee tweak earlier in spring training, so he could be a little behind the other hurlers.  However, even if Howard begins the season in the minors, it is doubtful that the Phils would wait too long once one of their below-average veterans inevitably struggles.

Clarke Schmidt, P, NYY – Deivi Garcia got most of the pub for the Bronx Bombers in terms of pitching prospects, but Schmidt had a huge breakout season in his own right.  Schmidt was a fast riser in the Yankees organization, amassing a 3.47 ERA and 102:28 K:BB in 90.2 innings, with his last stop coming at Double-A.  While Clarke is 24, he has just three starts at Double-A under his belt, so he is likely to begin the season in the minors.  Still, with Luis Severino undergoing Tommy John surgery, and James Paxton set to miss the first few months of the season, the back end of the Yankees rotation appears to be up for grabs.  While J.A. Happ and Jordan Montgomery should slot as the No. 3 and No. 4 starters, the No. 5 slot appears up for grabs, and the health/consistency of that back end is anything but a given.  As a result, if Schmidt continues to shine, he could get the call sooner than later.  Garcia could also end up in the bullpen due to his small frame, only adding further credence to the notion that Schmidt could end up as the next Yankees pitching prospect in the starting rotation.

Mitch Keller, P, PIT – The jump from Triple-A to the big leagues has been difficult for Keller, who misses a lot of bats but struggled mightily otherwise in 11 starts with the Pirates in 2019.  He allowed 72 hits in just 48 innings en route to a bloated 7.13 ERA.  Of course, the sample size is small, Keller remains an upper echelon pitching prospect and he is still just 23.  On a rebuilding team, he also likely will have an extremely long leash.  But I just don't believe he has the same upside as some of the highly touted hurlers who are close to the big leagues. As an aside, I've also got my eye on Ke'Bryan Hayes in this system; Hayes likely will begin the year at Triple-A but is not really blocked at the hot corner, and still has not yet tapped into his power potential.

Sean Murphy, C, OAK – The Athletics have a few prospects who would fit into this article, with Jesus Luzardo gaining a huge amount of buzz due to a recent lights-out performance.  Health has always been a concern for Murphy, who is all but assured of being the Opening Day catcher for the A's.  Murphy's defense has always been considered stellar, but he's also shown some nice pop  in the batter's box, and he does not strike out a ton.  Murphy hit .308/.386/.625 with 10 home runs and 30 RBI in 31 games at Triple-A last season.  He had a cup of coffee in September for the big club and managed four home runs in 20 games as well.  Of course, the injury history is the big concern.  Murphy is 25 and has never played more than 98 games in any season since entering the minors.  He also had offseason knee surgery and only last week entered the lineup for the A's during spring training.  He's a catcher, too, which obviously is a concern someone with knee issues.  While it would be foolish to see him play every single day, at the same time it is worth watching how much he plays, and if he can stay on the diamond.

DOWNGRADE

Carter Kieboom, 3B, WAS – With Anthony Rendon now on the west  coast, Kieboom is getting the opportunity to man the hot corner for the Nats.  A shortstop by trade, he's struggled a bit in  spring, and the defending champions have veteran depth in the infield with Asdrubal Cabrera, Howie Kendrick and Starlin Castro on the roster.  Kieboom has never been much of a speed guy, and most of his power last season came in the hitter-friendly confines of the Pacific Coast League.  In sum, there's no guarantee he starts the season with the big club, and even if he does, he might provide better real-life value than fantasy value.

A.J. Puk, P, OAK – This article will usually shy away from analyzing two players from the same organization in the same week, but Puk had been discussed in the same breath as the above-referenced Jesus Luzardo in terms of possibly starting the season in the big-league rotation.  Health, of course, comes first, and Puk suffered a strained shoulder that all but takes him out of the running for beginning the season as a healthy starter.  In fact, he has no timetable to resume throwing.  As a result, Puk gets a downgrade, and Luzardo gets an obvious upgrade.  Puk is another big, nasty lefty who strikes out a ton of batters but pitched in relief late last season and is still building up arm strength after Tommy John surgery.  If his injury is not serious, he should return to the mound for the A's this season, though it remains to be seen in what capacity.

Cristian Pache, OF, ATL – Call it a gut feeling, but I'm just not a believer in Pache.  He has the athleticism to play in the majors.  It remains to be seen, though, if his bat will play at the big-league level.  While he does have three steals in spring, he stole just eight bases last season while being caught 11 times.  While he set a career high in home runs last season, he hit just 12.  Instead of pushing Pache and fellow outfield prospect Drew Waters up for this season, the Braves signed Marcell Ozuna and surprisingly re-signed Nick Markakis.  As a result, there is a glut of outfielders ahead of Pache, and there's no guarantee the Braves don't call up the aforementioned Waters first.  The opportunity isn't there for Pache now, but the hit tool may be questionable as well.

Sam Hilliard, OF, COL – Speaking of gluts in the outfield, the same can be said of the Rockies.  Hilliard was a pitcher in college, transitioned to first in the minors and now appears to be destined to man the outfield.  He's athletic enough to play the position, but the Rockies already have Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl, along with a slew of lesser options, most notably Ian Desmond and Raimel Tapia.  The fact that Nolan Arenado is still on the roster despite a tumultuous offseason also means less at-bats for certain players, as Ryan McMahon now has to play second base, leaving Garrett Hampson in the outfield mix as well.  Hilliard was a monster in Triple-A in 2019, albeit in the hitter-friendly confines of the Pacific Coast League, but also had seven home runs in 27 games during September with the big club.  He will always be helped and/or discounted, depending on how you look at it, due to his playing home games in the thin air in Colorado, but perhaps more importantly he might need an injury or two to get consistent at-bats in the lineup.  David Dahl, for example, could certainly get hurt again, but Hilliard might be shuffled around to begin the 2020 campaign.  Hilliard is batting .188 to begin spring, so that may not help his cause either.