Rounding Third: Fear of Missing Out

As someone who has already finished 12 drafts, you'd think by now I'd have nearly every player I want. Surprisingly, you'd be wrong. Maybe I like too many players, but it's a vast baseball universe. As a result, I have some Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) of these players going off and being big difference-makers, with me not having any pieces of them. Fred Zinkie and I had a podcast this week focusing on our FOMO players — I highly recommend you check that out. We covered Fred's primary guys, and a handful of mine. I'll go a little more in-depth on my list now.

Even here, this list isn't exhaustive, but it's a good overview of some of the highlighted players I've missed out on. I've also left out obvious first-round players — we all want players who are obviously that good, and getting them is either a function of paying top dollar in an auction or drawing the right spot in a snake draft. Also, this list doesn't include the Best Ball, Mock Draft, Scoresheet or Strat-o-Matic leagues I've drafted.

Finally, this should be obvious but in case it isn't, this is not a fade list. Quite the opposite, in fact —  these are players I really want, but haven't gotten. They're good players! But for whatever reason I haven't gotten them — whether it's draft structure, one particular shortcoming or even a misreading of the market, they just haven't landed on my roster. Here's that non-exhaustive list, ordered by position.

ADP = NFBC ADP as of March 1

Rank = My personal rank as per the latest RotoWire Roundtable article

Catcher

Yasmani Grandal (ADP: 97.8, Rank: 105) - I was tempted to not cite any catchers, as I typically avoid early catchers. In these 12 leagues, in which all but one use two catchers, I have just two shares total of the top seven catchers — one of J.T. Realmuto, one of Willson Contreras. I like Grandal, and where he landed, both in terms of the ballpark and in the middle of the White Sox's potent lineup. But I am concerned that even with the ability to DH on occasion, he won't match last season's production or playing (or equivalent thereof). He wore down a little over the second half, and the Sox signed Edwin Encarnacion, so playing Grandal at DH would necessitate sitting Encarnacion.

First Base

Matt Olson (ADP: 49.5, Rank: 48) - Even though my ranking of Olson is right there with his ADP, it wasn't always that high, and even with that change in the ranking, it still hasn't been enough to get him, though in fairness earlier on I had my chances and went elsewhere. For instance, in the "Beat Jeff Erickson" draft* (NFBC RotoWire Online Championship), I had two potential bites of the apple, and went with Bo Bichette and Ketel Marte instead at picks 47 and 50. My insistence at addressing some speed early instead of relying a stolen base specialist like Mallex Smith or Dee Gordon has consequences. Who knew?

* I still owe you a write-up of that draft — I admittedly had been writing too many draft reviews. But here's the grid from that draft. I'm Team 2.

But since March 1 (damn, is it still March? Longest ... month ... ever) Olson's range of picks has been between 28 to 68, whereas his original ranking was somewhere around 70. He is one of the biggest helium guys in the NFBC. Olson's Statcast data justifies his NFBC love — his 50.3 Hard Hit% and 91.9 mph average exit velocity are both among elite in the game. When he returned from his broken hamate bone last year, he actually hit for more power than before, contrary to others that have suffered similar injuries. His two drawbacks are lack of speed, but that's common with the position, and a lower career batting average, though if he hits .267 like he did last year, that won't be a problem in this era.

Honorable Mention: Josh Bell, Rhys Hoskins

Second Base

Cavan Biggio (ADP: 126, Rank: 132) - A common theme of this list is that these are players who have been on the rise in drafts. Biggio was going about a full round later in January drafts than he is now, despite a mediocre spring (.192/.344/.231 in 32 plate appearances). He's a bit of an enigma. He hit for power (.190 ISO) and ran especially well in the majors (14-for-14 in SB attempts), but he also struck out 28.6 percent of the time, leading to a .234 batting average. However, he also walked 16.5 percent of the time, so he contributed a lot more in OBP leagues (and in real life). The Statcast data is conflicting, too — on one hand his 39.5 percent hard hit rate is well above average, but his 88.9 mph average exit velocity and 4.2 barrels/PA rate are below average. To select Biggio is to favor his power/speed potential while hoping he has batting average upside, while realizing that his floor is Rougned Odor.

Honorable Mention: Ozzie Albies, Jeff McNeil, Mike Moustakas

Shortstop

Corey Seager (ADP: 144, Rank: 124) - If my rank of Seager is 20 spots higher than his ADP, why don't I have him in any of my 12 leagues? That's a very good question. He's a great buy-low, post-hype sleeper type who appears to finally be fully healthy, in the middle of a great lineup. Sure, there's some fear that he could end up hitting toward the bottom of the Dodgers' order, and perhaps he could sit once in awhile when they face left-hander to give Chris Taylor or Enrique Hernandez a place to play. He also doesn't run much. But all that should be priced into his ADP. I guess the answer is that, like everyone else, I like a lot of shortstops this year. I have a lot of Trevor Story and Bo Bichette shares this year, for starters. And then when I've been looking to fill my middle infield slot, I'm often trying to find some speed. But I suspect that of all the players on this list, Seager will be the one I'll most likely get in my remaining drafts.

Honorable Mention: Tim Anderson, Dansby Swanson

Third Base

Matt Chapman (ADP: 92, Rank: 80) - This one is actually pretty simple. Josh Donaldson, Mike Moustakas and Matt Chapman's respective ADP's are 90.38, 91.17 and 92.50, and I like Donaldson the most of those three. If I'm going to get a high-power, middle-of-the-road average third baseman with no speed, I'm going to go with the one that has the best combination of lineup and ballpark, and that's Donaldson. If there's a way to get both and it fits my draft needs, I have no problem going with both Donaldson and Chapman.

Honorable Mention: Rafael Devers, Eugenio Suarez, Scott Kingery

Outfield

Eloy Jimenez (ADP: 57, Rank: 60) - I'm buying into the pedigree and second half narrative on Jimenez, but I just haven't landed him yet. I think it's more likely than not that both Jimenez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. realize their huge expectations in 2020. In a couple cases, I was a pick or two away from getting him, such as in the LABR Mixed League draft in February. In other cases, I had a slight preference for Bo Bichette or Keston Hiura in the area where Jimenez was available to me.

Franmil Reyes (ADP: 120, Rank: 122) - Franmil Reyes strikes out too often — 28.5 percent of the time last season. He's not going to steal any bases for you. He's a defensive liability, which hurt his playing time when he was in San Diego. But he's in the AL now, and the DH suits him just fine. Meanwhile, he's capable of hitting 50 homers in a given season, as evidenced by his 93.3 mph average exit velocity, 47.3 percent hard-hit rate, and 9.1 percent barrels/PA. Are you noticing a trend yet? I keep missing on a number of the high-power, low-average, no-speed guys. Most of them tend to inhabit first base or the outfield. Reyes will inhabit the DH next year.

J.D. Davis (ADP: 171, Rank: 186) - A look at my rank for Davis against the ADP and especially the other Roundtable Ranks illustrate just how much I misjudged Davis's market. Fellow rankers (maybe I should use a different term to describe them) Todd Zola and Erik Halterman put Davis at 124 and 162, respectively. The case looks mostly good for Davis on the merits. He cut down on his strikeouts while maintaining hard contact, hit more line drives and fly balls, and got better results on those batted balls. He's not going to run much, but I'm confident that he'll maintain his ability to hit for average and power. His defense might be a problem, as might the return of Yoenis Cespedes. Because there are so many outfielders that I'm comfortable with in Davis's range or even later, I probably won't end up with him.

Honorable Mention: Michael Brantley, Lourdes Gurriel, Max Kepler, Oscar Mercado

Starting Pitcher

Dinelson Lamet (ADP: 120, Rank: 130) - I like Lamet a lot, but there's just a few more pitchers in his range that I prefer, such as Zack Wheeler, Zac Gallen, Madison Bumgarner, Lance Lynn and Max Fried. I see the appeal for him — 33.6 K%'s don't grow on trees, and his home ballpark is obviously attractive too. But I'm wary of his relatively high walk rate (9.6 percent) and homers allowed, especially when he wasn't taking advantage of Petco. This could easily be a regret, particularly in a truncated season where a lower innings count matters less. Even if he throws 150-155 innings, that might be enough for 200 strikeouts.

Kenta Maeda (ADP: 167, Rank: 164) - I've had Maeda a lot the last two years, and I'm a little surprised I don't have him yet this year. He loses some value in changing to the American League and from Dodger Stadium to Target Field, but he gains some of that back with more stability in a starting job with the Twins. It's far less likely that they'll move him to the bullpen as the Dodgers did, if for no other reason than that the Twins don't have the same starting pitching depth.

Honorable Mention: Lucas Giolito, Luis Castillo, Joe Musgrove — as much angst as Musgrove delivered last year, I still wouldn't mind adding him!

Relief Pitcher

Taylor Rogers (ADP: 111, Rank: 94) - At one point I had Rogers as my No. 5 closer, ahead of Liam Hendriks, Kenley Jansen and Brad Hand, among others. But after the Twins re-signed Sergio Romo, I downgraded Rogers' save projection to 28 saves. I'm reconsidering that downgrade, relative to other closers, given that Rogers was given prototypical closer treatment by manager Rocco Baldelli down the stretch after the Twins acquired Romo. The other reason I didn't end up with Rogers yet is that earlier in draft season, I was a little more cavalier with the position, willing to wait until the 10th round or later in my snake drafts to get one. I won't have the same approach in my two NFBC Main Events.

Honorable Mention: Kirby Yates, Giovanny Gallegos

In previous seasons, I've often labeled my last NFBC RotoWire Online Championship League as my "FOMO Draft," to mixed results (second place one year, sixth the next). I'm not certain I'll take that approach this year, but let's just say if I have a coin flip between one of these players and another similarly valued player, there will be one less player who qualifies for this list.