This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
It feels like at least a month ago that I was running the chat room in the mixed Tout Wars auction, when in fact it has been exactly two weeks as I began writing this piece. Every day of the news cycle is so intense that days feel like weeks. I've passed some time watching videos on YouTube of highlights, but cannot bring myself to watch complete games of anything. I also have not done any drafts, mainly because work has been crazy given I work in educational technology by day and there are now millions of individual home schools across the country and the digital divide in both equipment and knowledge is larger than most of us realize.
I do, however, see that eight mixed-league auctions have taken place on the NFBC site between the Tout Mixed Auction and Monday. Let's look to see how the market has shifted since 15 touts logged in from home to participate in the auction two very long weeks ago. We can only look at the pitching prices given the differences in the hitting scoring categories.
The aggregate average price on pitching between the Tout auction and the eight mixed auctions with 15 teams on NFBC have a difference of $1, with the NFBC crew spending slightly more. That is not a surprise given that crew must draft a balanced team whereas Touts have the option of taking the auction as it comes and taking their chances on the trade market if
It feels like at least a month ago that I was running the chat room in the mixed Tout Wars auction, when in fact it has been exactly two weeks as I began writing this piece. Every day of the news cycle is so intense that days feel like weeks. I've passed some time watching videos on YouTube of highlights, but cannot bring myself to watch complete games of anything. I also have not done any drafts, mainly because work has been crazy given I work in educational technology by day and there are now millions of individual home schools across the country and the digital divide in both equipment and knowledge is larger than most of us realize.
I do, however, see that eight mixed-league auctions have taken place on the NFBC site between the Tout Mixed Auction and Monday. Let's look to see how the market has shifted since 15 touts logged in from home to participate in the auction two very long weeks ago. We can only look at the pitching prices given the differences in the hitting scoring categories.
The aggregate average price on pitching between the Tout auction and the eight mixed auctions with 15 teams on NFBC have a difference of $1, with the NFBC crew spending slightly more. That is not a surprise given that crew must draft a balanced team whereas Touts have the option of taking the auction as it comes and taking their chances on the trade market if the best laid plans do not work out.
Let us first look at the injured pitchers who were injured as camps were shut down and their ability to start the season on time was doubtful.
The Walking Wounded:
| Pitcher | Tout Mixed 3/14 | NFBC Last 2 Weeks | Difference | Lowest $ | Highest $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | $9 | $4 | ($5) | $1 | $10 |
| Justin Verlander | $32 | $31 | ($1) | $27 | $34 |
| Miles Mikolas | $1 | $1 | $0 | $1 | $1 |
| James Paxton | $13 | $13 | $0 | $8 | $20 |
| Cole Hamels | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| Michael Pineda | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| Rich Hill | $1 | $2 | $1 | $1 | $5 |
| Griffin Canning | $0 | $2 | $2 | $1 | $3 |
| Carlos Carrasco | $7 | $10 | $3 | $7 | $12 |
| A.J. Puk | $1 | $4 | $3 | $2 | $7 |
| Noah Syndergaard | $17 | $23 | $6 | $20 | $27 |
The Sale market obviously cratered when his unfortunate news came out, but two people in the last two weeks were willing to pay $9 or $10 to see if his shutdown was noise or a signal. Syndergaard saw a surge in his value before his bad news, which came as a bit of a surprise. Canning, Carrasco and Puk's value did not take a hit despite injury news, which speaks to where people are about how much of a season we will (might?) have. Verlander's groin surgery has done nothing to his value as everyone assumes that he will be fine by the time baseball resumes. The same can be said for Paxton, who is still coming at a nice price if the back surgery cured what sent him to the table in December. Hill's value saw a little bump with his high bid in NFBC given he will not miss as much of the season as he would have initially. We know what PRP injections and shoulder uncertainty do to values as Mikolas and Hamels were both end-game selections if they were even drafted. Finally, someone explain the appeal of Pineda to me. His suspension will not begin until the season actually starts, so he could end up missing more than half the season. It's a wasted roster spot.
The Aces (any pitcher >=$25 in Tout)
| Pitcher | Tout Mixed 3/14 | NFBC Last 2 Weeks | Difference | Lowest $ | Highest $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | $50 | $42 | ($8) | $40 | $44 |
| Gerrit Cole | $40 | $43 | $3 | $40 | $46 |
| Walker Buehler | $36 | $37 | $1 | $36 | $40 |
| Max Scherzer | $35 | $35 | $0 | $34 | $35 |
| Justin Verlander | $32 | $31 | ($1) | $27 | $34 |
| Jack Flaherty | $30 | $32 | $2 | $30 | $33 |
| Luis Castillo | $29 | $27 | ($2) | $25 | $28 |
| Patrick Corbin | $28 | $26 | ($2) | $24 | $28 |
| Steven Strasburg | $28 | $30 | $2 | $26 | $31 |
| Mike Clevinger | $28 | $30 | $2 | $28 | $31 |
| Shane Bieber | $27 | $30 | $3 | $28 | $32 |
| Tyler Glasnow | $25 | $21 | ($4) | $16 | $23 |
| Aaron Nola | $25 | $23 | ($2) | $20 | $25 |
| Zack Greinke | $25 | $23 | ($2) | $21 | $28 |
DeGrom's price was heavily influenced by multiple teams doing an extreme stars and scrubs approach in Tout. He was the 11th player nominated, so this was not a matter of teams sitting in cash in a soft spot of the auction as much as it was multiple teams valuing him as THE best pitcher in the talent pool. I would chalk up the other prices to the balanced roster dynamic needed in NFBC, and put Glasnow into the auction dynamics bucket given he was the 86th player bid on in the auction and purchased by someone who only rostered five players at that point.
Tier 2 pitchers (>=$15<=$25 in Tout)
| Pitcher | Tout Mixed 3/14 | NFBC Last 2 Weeks | Difference | Lowest $ | Highest $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Giolito | $24 | $25 | $1 | $23 | $29 |
| Clayton Kershaw | $24 | $26 | $2 | $24 | $29 |
| Chris Paddack | $22 | $25 | $3 | $24 | $27 |
| Brandon Woodruff | $20 | $20 | $0 | $18 | $22 |
| Blake Snell | $20 | $22 | $2 | $18 | $24 |
| Jose Berrios | $19 | $20 | $1 | $18 | $21 |
| Charlie Morton | $19 | $25 | $6 | $20 | $28 |
| Yu Darvish | $19 | $25 | $6 | $24 | $27 |
| Corey Kluber | $18 | $14 | ($4) | $11 | $17 |
| Noah Syndergaard | $17 | $23 | $6 | $20 | $27 |
| Trevor Bauer | $15 | $19 | $4 | $16 | $23 |
This pocket is where the money was moved two as four pitchers saw their values jump at least $4 from Tout to the NFBC auctions. The shorter season certainly helps assuage concerns about Morton's workload from 2019 impacting 2020. Darvish's spike in value is almost like people came to a sudden realization how awesome he was the last few months of the 2019 season while Kluber's dive in value may have come from people realizing in a time of uncertainty, paying full freight for his risks is not a wise move.
Tier 3 pitchers (>=$9,=$14 in Tout)
| Pitcher | Tout Mixed 3/14 | NFBC Last 2 weeks | Difference | Lowest $ | Highest $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | $14 | $15 | $1 | $13 | $17 |
| Zac Gallen | $14 | $15 | $1 | $13 | $19 |
| James Paxton | $13 | $13 | $0 | $8 | $20 |
| Jesus Luzardo | $13 | $18 | $5 | $15 | $22 |
| Frankie Montas | $13 | $18 | $5 | $16 | $21 |
| Madison Bumgarner | $12 | $10 | ($2) | $8 | $12 |
| Lance Lynn | $12 | $14 | $2 | $10 | $17 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | $11 | $9 | ($2) | $8 | $10 |
| Shohei Ohtani | $11 | $10 | ($1) | $6 | $13 |
| Mike Soroka | $11 | $14 | $3 | $11 | $16 |
| Robbie Ray | $10 | $8 | ($2) | $5 | $10 |
| Max Fried | $10 | $13 | $3 | $12 | $15 |
| Dinelson Lamet | $10 | $14 | $4 | $11 | $18 |
| Sonny Gray | $10 | $16 | $6 | $15 | $19 |
| Chris Sale | $9 | $4 | ($5) | $1 | $10 |
| Kyle Hendricks | $9 | $9 | $0 | $6 | $11 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | $9 | $10 | $1 | $9 | $13 |
| David Price | $9 | $12 | $3 | $8 | $14 |
This is the tier where people were chasing the fountain of youth as the kids recent to the market saw their value spike in the two-week period. Luzardo and Montas each saw significant jumps, but it was the elder statesman in Gray who saw the largest jump in his value. The shorter season gave Lamet a boost in value, though the workload is not the issue with him as much as layoff from the game itself. Command was never his strong suit, and he needs the repetition to get back to where he was prior to his injury.
Closers (and those in the mix):
| Pitcher | Tout Mixed 3/14 | NFBC Last 2 weeks | Difference | Lowest $ | Highest $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hader | $22 | $22 | $0 | $21 | $23 |
| Liam Hendriks | $18 | $15 | ($3) | $14 | $16 |
| Roberto Osuna | $18 | $16 | ($2) | $15 | $17 |
| Kirby Yates | $18 | $18 | $0 | $16 | $20 |
| Aroldis Chapman | $17 | $17 | $0 | $16 | $18 |
| Taylor Rogers | $16 | $14 | ($2) | $12 | $17 |
| Kenley Jansen | $15 | $13 | ($2) | $11 | $15 |
| Brad Hand | $13 | $11 | ($2) | $8 | $13 |
| Ken Giles | $12 | $14 | $2 | $12 | $16 |
| Edwin Diaz | $12 | $14 | $2 | $11 | $17 |
| Nick Anderson | $11 | $11 | $0 | $7 | $14 |
| Craig Kimbrel | $10 | $10 | $0 | $8 | $12 |
| Hector Neris | $10 | $13 | $3 | $12 | $14 |
| Keone Kela | $9 | $8 | ($1) | $7 | $10 |
| Hansel Robles | $9 | $9 | $0 | $8 | $11 |
| Raisel Iglesias | $9 | $11 | $2 | $8 | $12 |
| Joe Jimenez | $8 | $7 | ($1) | $3 | $10 |
| Mark Melancon | $6 | $5 | ($1) | $4 | $7 |
| Giovanny Gallegos | $6 | $7 | $1 | $4 | $10 |
| Ian Kennedy | $6 | $7 | $1 | $3 | $11 |
| Archie Bradley | $6 | $8 | $2 | $7 | $11 |
| Brandon Workman | $6 | $11 | $5 | $9 | $14 |
| Sean Doolittle | $5 | $6 | $1 | $3 | $9 |
| Jose Leclerc | $5 | $10 | $5 | $6 | $12 |
| Will Smith | $4 | $6 | $2 | $3 | $8 |
| Wade Davis | $3 | $3 | $0 | $1 | $4 |
| Scott Oberg | $2 | $1 | ($1) | $1 | $2 |
| Ryan Pressly | $2 | $1 | ($1) | $1 | $1 |
| Mychal Givens | $2 | $2 | $0 | $1 | $3 |
| Brandon Kintzler | $2 | $4 | $2 | $1 | $6 |
| Matt Magill | $1 | $1 | $0 | $1 | $2 |
| James Karinchak | $1 | $1 | $0 | $1 | $1 |
| Daniel Hudson | $1 | $2 | $1 | $1 | $3 |
| Sam Tuivailala | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| Emilio Pagan | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $2 |
| Seth Lugo | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| Ryan Helsley | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $2 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano | $0 | $2 | $2 | $1 | $3 |
| Diego Castillo | $0 | $2 | $2 | $1 | $3 |
| Hunter Harvey | $0 | $4 | $4 | $2 | $6 |
Workman and Leclerc were the two pitchers who gained the most value, yet their back stories are rather far apart. Leclerc appears to have the shorter leash with Rafael Montero behind him, while Workman does have Matt Barnes around, Barnes has been such a vital tool in the other high leverage innings he may not be able to come out of those. Harvey went from the reserves in Tout to $6 in a NFBC auction, which is saying something about how poorly the market values Givens as both a skills and flight risk in trade.
New values (pitchers who went unpurchased in Tout):
| Pitcher | Tout Mixed 3/14 | NFBC Last 2 weeks | Difference | Lowest $ | Highest $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross Stripling | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| Chris Bassitt | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| Michael Lorenzen | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| Sam Tuivailala | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| Marco Gonzales | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| Emilio Pagan | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $2 |
| Seth Lugo | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| Corbin Burnes | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $2 |
| Ryan Helsley | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $2 |
| Johnny Cueto | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $4 |
| Blake Treinen | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| Pablo Lopez | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| Zach Plesac | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| Dustin May | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $2 |
| Julio Teheran | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| Cole Hamels | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| Mike Fiers | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| Matt Shoemaker | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| Michael Pineda | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| Matt Barnes | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| Tyler Mahle | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| Zach Eflin | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano | $0 | $2 | $2 | $1 | $3 |
| Kyle Gibson | $0 | $2 | $2 | $1 | $4 |
| Zach Davies | $0 | $2 | $2 | $1 | $2 |
| Kwang-Hyun Kim | $0 | $2 | $2 | $1 | $2 |
| Diego Castillo | $0 | $2 | $2 | $1 | $3 |
| Jon Lester | $0 | $2 | $2 | $1 | $2 |
| Brendan McKay | $0 | $2 | $2 | $1 | $2 |
| Griffin Canning | $0 | $2 | $2 | $1 | $3 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | $0 | $2 | $2 | $1 | $4 |
| Spencer Turnbull | $0 | $2 | $2 | $1 | $3 |
| Nate Pearson | $0 | $3 | $3 | $1 | $6 |
| Jose Quintana | $0 | $3 | $3 | $2 | $3 |
| Freddy Peralta | $0 | $3 | $3 | $1 | $4 |
| Hunter Harvey | $0 | $4 | $4 | $2 | $6 |
| Anibal Sanchez | $0 | $5 | $5 | $5 | $5 |
This group held true for the most part, but Pearson's hot spring gave him life, and Quintana, Peralta, Harvey and Sanchez saw decent jumps in value after being overlooked in Tout. Taking flyers on last year's junk can often be profitable, and there is upside in all four of those players, though I do not see $5 worth of upside in Sanchez.
A final thought would be the pitcher who I believe best encapsulates the uncertainty of the season — Julio Urias. He went $6 in Tout when we thought we would have a full season, but has seen his average value double in NFBC since then, and has gone for as high as $15. Urias is a talented pitcher who had very real workload concerns coming into this season, but a shortened season is tailor made for him this year and he has the chance to be more useful in an abbreviated season than he would have been in a normal season. That said, he is going for the same average price as David Price, who has no such concerns and should flourish in the NL and away from nearly everything he hated in Boston.
