The Z Files: 2021 Positional Player Pool Analysis

Knowing the lay of the land is integral to formulating a pragmatic draft strategy. While we all should trust our own analysis, it helps to have a grasp for how the market views the inventory. One of the ways to accomplish this is via average draft position (ADP). ADP can be useful in framing when to draft a player, but it doesn't, or at least shouldn't, guide who to draft.

Understanding the composition of the player pool also doesn't pinpoint who to choose, but it assists in knowing where to look. To that end, an positional overview of the hitters will be presented, using 12 and 15-team mixed leagues as the basis.

To get a better representation of the market, the individual player projections will be an average of my own, RotoWire's and those of our friends at BaseballHQ. My valuation model will be used to determine the draft-worthy pool in each format. Different models generate different rankings, but the players comprising each list are close to the same. The ranking order is the chief difference. 'Draft-worthy' is defined as the players necessary to legally fill all the rosters. For example, in a 12-team league with the standard 14 hitters per team, 168 hitters make up the draft-worthy pool. There will be ample players at each position, so the 12-team pool will have at least 24 catchers, 36 corner infielders (at least 12 at both first base and third base), 36 middle infielders (at least 12 at both second base and shortstop), 60 outfielder and 12 utility players (including all the DH-only batters).

Both draft-worthy pools will be broken down by position. Instead of assigning a primary position so each player is counted in just one spot, the individual position pools will be composed of everyone eligible. So they get included, DH-only players are grouped with outfielders.

Player Pool Composition

Remember when middle infield scarcity was a thing? How about when outfield was crazy deep and almost always occupied the UT slot? The plethora of players eligible at more than one position have vanquished scarcity, except at catcher. Keeping in mind DH-only players are lumped in with outfielders, there are ample outfielders to fill every OF and DH spot in both formats. Obviously, in today's landscape several corner and middle infielder will populate the UT spot as outfield just isn't as deep, especially since some outfield-eligible players may be drafted as an infielder.

It's more observational than actionable, but it's interesting to observe there are more 3B than 1B in 12MIX with the reverse in 15MIX. The same is true for SS and 2B. The reason could be steals and batting average contribute more to projected earnings in 15MIX.

Multiple Eligibility Players

The top grid shows the number of multiple eligibility players (MEP) who qualify at each spot while the bottom displays the percentage of that player pool eligible at more than one spot. It's mind-boggling how two-thirds of the second base pool has multiple eligibility. It's also a little surprising outfield doesn't have more MEPs, but some of that is the inclusion of DH-only (six in 12MIX, seven in 15MIX). Even so, outfield can get thin if you wait too long. 

Reserve List Composition

The MEP tables are accurate if everyone shares the same draft-worthy pool, but we don't. My top-168 in 12MIX is different than yours, as is my top-210 in 15MIX. 

The repercussion of this is the ability to draft players in the last few rounds ranked well above that by the market, or in an auction, paying $1 for someone priced higher.

This is an oversimplification since it omits pitching, but let's say we are all using the same rankings and I have the last pick. I'll probably end up with my 168th ranked hitter in 12MIX and 210th in 15MIX. However, if everyone is drafting off their own rankings, there will be a bunch of players outside my draft-worthy pool on other competitors' rosters. For every such player, my last player moves up one spot on my rankings, with the caveat he needs to legally fit on my active roster. For example, if the league selects 20 batters not in my draft-worthy pool, the worst hitter I'll pick in 12MIX is ranked around 148.

Looking at the Reserve List Composition gives me an idea which positions will likely yield the biggest differences of opinion. In order to maximize profit potential on my last pick, I want the guy ranked highest on my list. Obviously, having UT open avails the best player available. Based on the data, in 12MIX, I should leave UT or OF open, since there is a better chance the room and I disagree on outfielders. Instead of filling my OF5 with my lowest ranked OF at the time, I can likely get one ranked several spots higher since more OF will be drafted from outside my draft-worthy pool. In 15MIX, the data screams to wait on second catcher, and maybe both catchers. There will be profit baked into the pick since several backstops not making my draft-worthy cut will be populating other teams' rosters.

There is another benefit to this type of thinking. Drafting an outfielder last in 12MIX and then early in reserves affords a better shot at one outperforming their expectations. Not to mention, they are so close in expectation you'll be able to activate the one with better matchups for that transaction period.

In 15MIX, it may not be efficient to carry three catchers, but knowing the free agent pool is replete with options ranked close to your second catcher essentially renders the available player pool an extension of your reserve list for the position. Granted, you can't draft a replacement midweek in most formats, but if your second catcher gets injured or is underperforming his already low expectations, there is a bevy of substitutes.

Quality by Position

Please keep in mind catchers incur a pricing adjustment that bumps an ample number into the draft-worthy pool. As such, even though this table makes it appear their stats are similar to second base, they are indeed inferior. That said, their useful stats (those above replacement) are close.

Check out shortstop. It's one thing to sense the position is loaded, but seeing the average shortstop is expected to out-earn the average player at every other spot by at least $1.40 is amazing. It's equally befuddling how much second base trails the pack, though that could be due to the paucity of top-end options.

The number is parentheses represents the players necessary so four teams are full at the position. The average of these players demonstrates the quality at the top of each position and again emphasizes how crazy strong shortstop has become.

How one chooses to use this data is subjective. Some may see it and make sure they draft one of the top shortstops since the edge is huge, while others target one of the few top second baseman because they're more productive relative to the rest of the pool. 

Stats by Position

Above is the average player at each position. Obviously, you don't have to draft chalk for success, but this data points to steals from shortstop, homers from first base, batting average from second base with some batting average drains in the outfield.

The same pattern holds true for 15-team leagues. Obviously, it depends on who is left on the board, but in a global sense, choosing a first baseman for corner may offer more power while a third baseman could have a higher batting average. Your mileage may vary, but recalling that there are fewer draft-worthy shortstops than second basemen and the big difference in the counting categories, my lean is filling middle early with a shortstop and worrying about the keystone later. This speaks towards team construction. Incorporating separate tables in tandem aids in that regard.

The above charts are just a different means of visualizing the average player. The percentage contribution by each position for each stat is determined, then normalized per number of roster spots required for each. That is, the catcher portion is divided by two, the infield spots by 1.5 and outfield by five. It is assumed middle and corner are split equally, even though that may not be the case. Not incorporating UT skews things, but we're looking for a nudge in the right direction, not a set-in-stone strategy.

Perhaps because they're in double digits, highlighting them more than in the average tables, but the observation that stands out in this presentation is how run production is boosted from the corners. Everyone focuses on HR and SB, ostensibly assuming RBI and runs dovetail. Again, this is broad brush analysis, but filling a couple outfield spots with the appropriate fly chasers also eligible at corner could serve to fortify RBI and runs.

Summary

The beauty of data of this nature is everyone can view it through a different prism and apply it in various ways. Some may even look to scheme a contrarian approach, hoping the herd follows the chalk to shift the supply and demand dynamic. 

With that as a backdrop, here are some of the more actionable observations I glean from the dissection of the 2021 player pool:

• Hit outfield hard and early, but leave at least one spot for the end
• Fill middle infield with a shortstop, with at least one shortstop contributing steals. Don't sweat doing it fairly early
• Focus heavily on counting stats early and look to shore up average with a second baseman mid to late
• Save at least one catcher in MIX15 for the endgame
• Try to get a couple MEP to use in the outfield, although it may help thin the pool to slot a MEP OF in the infield
• Don't hesitate to fill 1B/3B/CI a little early to make sure RBI and runs are solid. Using a corner at UT could also help.