Billy Hamilton
Billy Hamilton
29-Year-Old OutfielderOF
Atlanta Braves
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Last season was a poor one on the whole for pure stolen-base artists, highlighted by disappointing seasons from Hamilton and Dee Gordon. When you pay full price for someone like Hamilton, you need him to get 50-plus steals to be worth the cost, as he's already going to cost you standings points in homers and RBI, and likely won't help you in batting average. When he hits just .236 and steals 34 bags, it's an unmitigated disaster for your team. Hamilton dropped to the bottom of the order early in the season and ended up there for 111 games, as opposed to just 31 games in the leadoff spot. After being non-tendered by the Reds, Hamilton signed with the Royals -- a perfect destination for someone who otherwise might have been ticketed for a bench role. He should have regular playing time and the green light to run. While there's little reason to think he will suddenly start hitting, he could find himself leading off with Ned Yost pulling the strings. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year, $5.25 million contract with the Royals in December of 2018. Waived by the Royals in August of 2019. Claimed off waivers by the Braves in August of 2019. Contract includes $7.5 million mutual option for 2020.
Starting Saturday
OFAtlanta Braves
September 28, 2019
Hamilton (thumb) will bat eighth and play center field Saturday against the Mets.
ANALYSIS
Hamilton left Friday's game with a thumb injury after stealing a base, but the issue was evidently a very minor one, as he won't miss any games. He's been the primary center fielder for the last few games but will likely revert to the bench sparkplug role that suits him best if Ronald Acuna returns from a hip injury as expected for the start of the playoffs.
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Batting Stats
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
5
53
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
2
1
27
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2017
 
 
+14%
OPS vs RHP
2019
 
 
+6%
OPS vs RHP
2018
 
 
+5%
OPS vs RHP
2017
 
 
+25%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2017vs Left .562 452 49 3 30 28 .208 .263 .300
Since 2017vs Right .638 1090 151 5 52 87 .249 .311 .327
2019vs Left .542 121 12 0 5 6 .184 .280 .262
2019vs Right .575 232 29 0 10 16 .235 .293 .282
2018vs Left .605 157 19 2 14 14 .211 .274 .331
2018vs Right .635 399 55 2 15 20 .246 .309 .326
2017vs Left .537 174 18 1 11 8 .219 .241 .296
2017vs Right .673 459 67 3 27 51 .259 .322 .351
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2017
 
 
+22%
OPS at Home
2019
 
 
+12%
OPS on Road
2018
 
 
+35%
OPS at Home
2017
 
 
+29%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2017Home .680 741 104 7 49 47 .257 .314 .366
Since 2017Away .557 801 96 1 33 68 .218 .281 .276
2019Home .529 155 18 0 8 7 .212 .281 .248
2019Away .591 198 23 0 7 15 .223 .294 .296
2018Home .724 270 37 4 19 9 .261 .326 .398
2018Away .536 286 37 0 10 25 .213 .274 .262
2017Home .715 316 49 3 22 31 .275 .319 .395
2017Away .554 317 36 1 16 28 .220 .279 .275
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Stat Review
How does Billy Hamilton compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.37
 
BB Rate
9.1%
 
K Rate
24.6%
 
BABIP
.299
 
ISO
.057
 
AVG
.218
 
OBP
.289
 
SLG
.275
 
OPS
.564
 
wOBA
.257
 
Exit Velocity
80.5 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
23.5%
 
Barrels/PA
0.0%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Billy Hamilton
Games Played By Position: 2020 Eligibility Notes
4 days ago
Clay Link looks at appearances by position and makes note of multi-position eligibility and lost eligibility for 2020.
Postseason Cheatsheet
Postseason Cheatsheet
17 days ago
17 days ago
Jeff Erickson's quick postseason ranks.
FanDuel MLB: Thursday Breakdown
17 days ago
Thursday marks the first day of the Division Series round with the National League matchups. Sasha Yodashkin examines the best FanDuel format picks, and Braves starter Dallas Keuchel may be a bargain.
Oak's Corner: Early 2020 Fades and Late 2019 Adds
36 days ago
Scott Jenstad looks toward 2020 to discuss some fades, including the Nationals’ Victor Robles, who has stolen-base upside, but doesn’t hit the ball hard enough for Jenstad’s liking.
The Z Files: Second-Half Bullpen and Basepath Observations
51 days ago
Todd Zola digs into recent stolen base and bullpen numbers looking for an edge and notes that Trea Turner isn't the only National who's been tearing up the basepaths lately.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
Last year Hamilton gave back most of the small gains he made at the plate in 2016. After hitting .260 in 2016, that mark dropped back to .247 in 2017, his walk rate dropped from 7.8 percent to 7.0 percent, and he slugged a mere .335, down from .345 the previous year. He still is a major contributor in stolen bases, notching 59 last season while spending all but four games in the leadoff spot. With Jesse Winker knocking on the door, there's a chance that the Reds might start playing Hamilton less frequently, moving him down in the order or maybe even trading him to another organization. Should any of these options come into play, his stolen-base opportunities will decline, stripping Hamilton of his one true offensive contribution. If you draft Hamilton, you may not get the full complement of bags that you expected, all while getting substandard production in the other four categories.
Hamilton pushed his OBP to a career-best .321 last season -- a 47-point jump from 2015 -- and that improvement was fueled by his second straight season with an increased walk rate (7.8 percent). He also maintained his improved efficiency as a basestealer, going 58-for-66 on the heels of his 57-for-65 mark in 2015. Finally, Hamilton hit the ball on the ground more frequently last season (47.7 percent groundball rate), which allowed him to use his speed to push his batting average to a career-high .260. Health is a major issue for Hamilton, as he returned from offseason shoulder surgery to begin 2016, and proceeded to lose time due to a concussion, thumb contusion, minor knee injury and an oblique injury that eventually shut him down for good. Hamilton declared himself to be healthy in December, and the skills growth he showed last season points to a potential spike in the stolen-base department if he can avoid the injury bug.
Hamilton improved on the basepaths but regressed at the plate in 2015, and it's that latter quality that has us worried about his long-term prospects. But first, the good news: he was 57-for-65 in stolen base attempts in 114 games after getting caught 23 times in 2014. Those gains were canceled out by his performance at the plate, as his ISO dropped to a paltry .063 in 2015, giving opposing pitchers little reason to avoid challenging him in the strike zone. Thus, it's going to be extraordinarily difficult for him to raise his walk rate above 10 percent and make him an acceptable leadoff hitter. He spent more time batting ninth (226 plate appearances) than leading off (208) in 2015, and that's unlikely to change in the future. His season ended early with a shoulder injury, and that same injury has kept him out of spring games early in camp, so his status for Opening Day is in question.
If the season ended on August 31, Hamilton's rookie season would have been a rousing success. He hit for more power than expected and was hitting .267/.302/.382 with 54 stolen bases. But he collapsed in September, hitting just .123 with 19 strikeouts in 65 at-bats and had just two more stolen bases before missing the final four games with a concussion. He fell short of his projected stolen base total in part because of that September slump, but also because he was caught a whopping 23 times on the season (seven of those coming on pickoffs). As he plays more at the major league level, his success rate should improve as he learns how to read opposing pitchers better, but he also has to get on base more frequently, having walked a mere 34 times in 611 plate appearances in 2014. While we don't ever expect him to be Tim Raines, we do suspect there will be some improvement in 2015, both in his ability to get on base and being able to run more without getting caught.
True speed demons like Hamilton have among the biggest fantasy swing potentials among all players. Is he going to be like Vince Coleman and dominate a category, or is he going to be more like Dee Gordon and lose playing time and struggle to keep a major league job? Much of Hamilton's value rests in the format of your league. If you play in the NFBC or any other no-trade league, Hamilton is especially tricky to value. A full season of him in the lineup gets you half of the way there in the stolen-base category, if not more. But if you draft him, chances are you are avoiding other elite stolen base guys, as a surplus in the category gets you nowhere, plus you have to draft power-heavy hitters to make up for Hamilton's shortfall there. If Hamilton scuffles and subsequently gets demoted, your team goes from likely winning the category to falling to the back of the pack. Hamilton struck out nearly 20 percent of the time at Triple-A without being a power threat (.343 slugging percentage) - there's a good chance that strikeout rate hits 25 percent or higher at the major league level, which will make it difficult for him to hit for a decent batting average. Be very cautious with Hamilton - the burn potential is high.
After Hamilton set the minor league single-season record for stolen bases in 2012, the Reds resisted the urge to call him up for the September stretch run, instead preserving their ability to keep him off the 40-man roster for another offseason. And in fairness, Hamilton probably isn't ready to face major league pitching, nor was there a place for him to play. Those things might change by midseason 2013, especially if the Reds don't reach outside the organization to find a leadoff hitter. Hamilton did more than steal bases last year - he also learned to master the strike zone, improving his walk rate as he climbed the organizational ladder. He still has no palpable power, so that ability to get on-base will need to translate at Triple-A and then the majors to allow him to cash in on his world-class speed. He played center field in the Arizona Fall League, so that could be his ultimate position once he hits the majors, especially if the Reds are locked in on Zack Cozart at shortstop.
Two numbers stand out when looking at Hamilton's 2011 stats: 103 and 39. That's 103 stolen bases (in 123 attempts) and 39 errors. Hamilton stayed at shortstop all season after playing much of 2010 at second base, so growing pains had to be expected. But while Hamilton has great range, he hasn't received good marks for his arm or his hands, so he might not stick at shortstop. He's a very raw prospect, so even with an organizational problem at shortstop, Hamilton is not a candidate for a quick promotion. However, it's worth noting that he really came on strong at Low-A Dayton after hitting .195 through May - he just needs plenty of time at each level to develop.
Hamilton was drafted out of a Mississippi high school in the second round of the 2009 draft and started to hit his stride last year in the Pioneer League, where he hit .318/.383/.456 with a whopping 48 stolen bases in 69 games. So far he hasn't hit for power, and this production came at a pretty low level, but Hamilton's raw tools should put him on your long-term radar.
More Fantasy News
Expected to be fine
OFAtlanta Braves
Thumb
September 27, 2019
Hamilton injured his right thumb on a slide during Friday's game against the Mets, but he's expected to be OK, Gabe Burns of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
ANALYSIS
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Departs after stolen base
OFAtlanta Braves
Undisclosed
September 27, 2019
Hamilton left Friday's game against the Mets after suffering an apparent injury, 680 The Fan Atlanta reports.
ANALYSIS
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Starting in second straight
OFAtlanta Braves
September 22, 2019
Hamilton is in the lineup for Sunday's game against the Giants.
ANALYSIS
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Reaches base four times in loss
OFAtlanta Braves
August 28, 2019
Hamilton went 2-for-2 with two walks and a stolen base in Tuesday's loss to the Blue Jays.
ANALYSIS
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Claimed by Braves
OFKansas City Royals
August 19, 2019
Hamilton was claimed off waivers by the Braves on Monday.
ANALYSIS
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