Joe Kelly
Joe Kelly
30-Year-Old PitcherRP
Los Angeles Dodgers
Bereavement
Injury Personal
Est. Return 5/27/2019
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Kelly endured a roller-coaster 2018 campaign. The flamethrower allowed four runs and recorded just one out in his season debut (in late March) but responded by not allowing a run in April (0.53 WHIP, 10:1 K:BB in 11.1 innings). Kelly's inconsistency continued, as the right-hander posted an ERA north of 8.30 in three of the following months (June, July and September) while keeping his ERA below 1.50 in the other three months (May, August and October), including a 0.79 ERA and 13:0 K:BB across 11.1 playoff frames for the eventual World Series champions. While the 30-year-old saw a jump in his strikeout rate, his 9.3 K/9 still seems somewhat disappointing for a late-inning arm with a 98.5 mph average fastball. Kelly appears primed to serve as Kenley Jansen's top setup man after signing a three-year, $25 million deal with the Dodgers in free agency. Read Past Outlooks
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$Signed a three-year, $21 million contract with the Dodgers in December of 2018. Contract includes a $12 million team option ($4 million buyout) for 2022.
Expected back Monday
PLos Angeles Dodgers
Personal
May 24, 2019
Kelly is expected to return from the bereavement list prior to Monday's game against the Mets, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports.
ANALYSIS
The right-hander was placed on the bereavement list Friday morning, though his absence will be a brief one. The Dodgers will need to make a roster move upon Kelly's return.
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-1%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-10%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-17%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-14%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .235 258 64 35 52 7 2 5
Since 2017vs Right .233 346 73 30 71 12 1 5
2019vs Left .343 38 9 3 12 3 0 2
2019vs Right .308 43 8 3 12 3 0 1
2018vs Left .211 126 33 12 24 3 2 2
2018vs Right .254 159 35 20 33 3 1 2
2017vs Left .222 94 22 20 16 1 0 1
2017vs Right .191 144 30 7 26 6 0 2
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-19%
ERA on Road
2019
 
 
-16%
ERA on Road
2018
 
 
-24%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-74%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 4.64 1.34 64.0 2 2 0 7.6 3.5 0.6
Since 2017Away 3.74 1.32 77.0 7 3 2 9.7 4.7 0.7
2019Home 8.59 1.77 7.1 0 1 0 6.1 2.5 2.5
2019Away 7.20 1.70 10.0 1 1 0 10.8 3.6 0.9
2018Home 3.72 1.21 29.0 0 1 0 8.4 3.4 0.0
2018Away 4.91 1.47 36.2 4 1 2 10.1 5.2 1.0
2017Home 4.55 1.37 27.2 2 0 0 7.2 3.9 0.7
2017Away 1.19 1.02 30.1 2 1 0 8.9 4.5 0.3
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Stat Review
How does Joe Kelly compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 20 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.83
 
K/9
8.8
 
BB/9
3.1
 
HR/9
1.6
 
Fastball
97.5 mph
 
ERA
7.79
 
WHIP
1.73
 
BABIP
.397
 
GB/FB
4.71
 
Left On Base
54.3%
 
Exit Velocity
92.6 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
7.0%
 
Spin Rate
2278 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
50.9%
 
Swinging Strike
8.6%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Joe Kelly
The Z Files: Oh, What a Relief It... Isn't?
23 days ago
Todd Zola takes another look at the value of high-strikeout middle relievers, such as the Mets' Seth Lugo, in the current run-scoring environment.
Mound Musings: NL West Draft Day Targets
73 days ago
Brad Johnson tackles the National League West this week, where in Colorado, German Marquez is thriving at Coors Field.
Tout Wars Draft and Hold Recap
75 days ago
James Anderson breaks down his strategy and final roster in his Tout Wars debut.
The Long Game: Tomorrow's Closers... Today!
285 days ago
Erik Siegrist looks for potential 2019 save sources in all 30 big-league bullpens, including a peek at what might happen in Boston if Craig Kimbrel leaves as a free agent.
AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
May 13, 2018
Erik Siegrist reviews the available talent in the American League where some struggling stars have returned from the disabled list, including the Twins' Byron Buxton.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Kelly was coming off of what was arguably the worst statistical season of his career in 2016 (5.18 ERA over 40 innings), but the veteran reliever twirled a dominant final month of the season which helped establish him as one of Boston's more reliable relief arms heading into 2018 campaign. After some offseason mechanical adjustments, Kelly saw his fastball velocity significantly increase to a blistering average of 99 mph. Unfortunately, this uptick in velocity didn't correlate to better strikeout numbers, as his strikeout rate actually fell nearly four percentage points to a very pedestrian 21.9 percent rate. His walk rate remained high (11.3 percent), but he was able to greatly suppress his home-run rate en route to a 2.79 ERA (3.49 FIP) over 58 innings of relief. Despite his improvements, Kelly's still a middle reliever with strikeout and command issues -- that isn't a very appealing combination in fantasy.
Joe Kelly teased the Red Sox in 2016 with his high-90s fastball but would often lose his mechanics, missing the strike zone, and failed to use his secondary pitches enough. In six starts, he had an ERA of 8.46 while giving up 31 hits and 19 walks in 22.1 innings. He was demoted to Triple-A Pawtucket, where the organization decided to transition him to a reliever, a role for which many in MLB thought he was best suited. He took to it quite well, posting a 0.56 ERA in 13 appearances with the PawSox. Kelly continued to be effective when called up in September, putting up a 0.64 ERA while striking out 20 and walking three in 14 innings for Boston to close out the season. He added three scoreless and hitless postseason frames against the Indians. Manager John Farrell attributed his success to an improved slider. His dominant finish to the season sealed Kelly's fate as a full-time, mid-to-late-inning reliever in 2017.
Kelly has intoxicating velocity that keeps him interesting even as he continues to pile up mediocre results. He looked good in 2012-13, but his best work was done in the bullpen while he lucked into good results as a starter despite a 1.6 K/BB ratio in 31 starts. He's been a full-time starter since and the mediocrity has shown itself clearly with a 4.57 ERA and 1.9 K/BB ratio in 231 innings. His best secondary pitch is a changeup that helps him neutralize lefties with just a 29-point platoon split. The problem is that he just allows too much contact leaving him open to variance like the .274 to .320 BABIP jump we saw in 2015. Further exacerbating the issue is that his strikeout pitch - the slider - gets lit up any time it doesn't generate a strikeout (.908 OPS, 33% K rate since 2014). There are some intriguing elements, but his MLB work marries well with his minor league track record so it's hard to project a major jump for him as a starter.
Kelly posted a 2.69 ERA over 37 appearances – 15 starts – in 2013 and opened last season as the Cardinals' fifth starter. There were red flags, particularly with his strikeout and walk rates, as Kelly's xFIP in 2013 (4.19) indicated that a sub-3.00 simply wasn't sustainable. That proved to be true, and while Kelly pitched reasonably well, he was sidelined after three starts by a hamstring injury that kept him out of action for three months. Upon his return, he was hit hard and then traded to Boston in the John Lackey deal. With Boston's starting rotation decimated by trades and the team relying on young starting prospects, the 26-year-old Kelly became the team's No. 2 starter. Even with the offseason changes in the rotation, Kelly is expected to begin the year with one of the five starting spots. He may be ideally suited for the bullpen, where his fastball will have even more velocity (he averaged 94.7 mph on the pitch in 2014) and he won't have to rely as much on his secondary offerings.
Kelly started the season as a long-relief arm out of the bullpen before getting a shot in the rotation at the start of July. Kelly took the opportunity and ran with it, posting an 11-2 record with a 2.32 ERA over his final 14 starts. Despite an excellent showing in the rotation for the Cardinals, Kelly's role for the start of 2014 is murky. The Cardinals have a talented group of young arms to put behind ace Adam Wainwright and Kelly is a good bet to make the rotation next season, but it's far from a guarantee that he will stick if he ends up solidifying a spot when spring training breaks in March.
Kelly started 16 games for the Cardinals last year and threw eight in relief, where he was far more successful. In 91.1 innings as a starter, he had a respectable 3.74 ERA but a not-as-respectable 1.41 WHIP and 59:32 K:BB. Meanwhile, as a reliever, he threw 15.2 innings and finished with a 2.30 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 16:4 K:BB ratio. Naturally, the Cardinals are planning on using him as a starter this year. He's still just 24, and has room to grow, but it would be nice to see the K:BB ratio improve a bit before throwing him into the rotation for good.
More Fantasy News
Placed on bereavement list
PLos Angeles Dodgers
Personal
May 24, 2019
Kelly has been placed on the MLB bereavement list, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.
ANALYSIS
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Hit with loss, blown save
PLos Angeles Dodgers
April 8, 2019
Kelly got the loss and another blown save in Monday's 4-3 loss to the Cardinals, giving up one earned run on two hits in his one inning of work. He walked one and didn't log a strikeout.
ANALYSIS
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Available to pitch Sunday
PLos Angeles Dodgers
April 7, 2019
Kelly (wrist) is available out of the bullpen Sunday against Colorado, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports.
ANALYSIS
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X-rays return negative
PLos Angeles Dodgers
Wrist
April 5, 2019
Kelly's X-rays on his right wrist came back negative, and he'll test the wrist prior to Saturday's game against Colorado to determine his availability, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports.
ANALYSIS
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Lifted due to injury
PLos Angeles Dodgers
Hand
April 5, 2019
Kelly was removed from Friday's game against the Rockies after knocking down a comebacker, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports. He retired one batter prior to exiting.
ANALYSIS
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