Jimmy Nelson
Jimmy Nelson
30-Year-Old PitcherSP
Milwaukee Brewers
60-Day IL
Injury Elbow
Est. Return 8/27/2019
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Nelson was coming into his own late in the 2017 season before injuring his shoulder while running the bases, of all things. The Brewers took the cautious route with Nelson's recovery and did not provide a return timetable, and he wound up missing the entire 2018 campaign due to his setback. While Nelson missed the entirety of the Brewers' postseason push, he entered the offseason healthy, and will be able to prepare as normal for the 2019 campaign. Nelson is a wild card for both the Brewers and fantasy owners, but given the way he was throwing late in the 2017 campaign, he's going to have some fantasy intrigue. If healthy, he will head into the regular season this year with a spot in the Brewers' rotation. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year, $3.7 million contract with the Brewers in December of 2018, avoiding arbitration.
Getting back on track
PMilwaukee Brewers
Elbow
August 14, 2019
Nelson (elbow) threw a scoreless inning of relief in a game with Triple-A San Antonio on Tuesday.
ANALYSIS
It's been a rough season for Nelson, but he is showing signs of getting back on track, allowing just one hit while posting an 8:2 K:BB in 3.2 innings over his last three appearances with San Antonio. Nelson has not thrown more than 1.2 innings in an outing since his last appearance in the big leagues June 25, so if he does return to Milwaukee before the season ends, it's looking like it will be in a bullpen role.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-7%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-7%
BAA vs LHP
2018
No Stats
2017
 
 
-8%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .251 393 116 39 87 18 2 10
Since 2017vs Right .271 408 98 23 102 13 2 8
2019vs Left .300 39 9 8 9 2 2 0
2019vs Right .321 34 6 6 9 1 1 2
2018vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017vs Left .246 354 107 31 78 16 0 10
2017vs Right .267 374 92 17 93 12 1 6
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-13%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-10%
ERA at Home
2018
No Stats
2017
 
 
-19%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 3.61 1.39 104.2 6 6 0 10.1 3.3 0.7
Since 2017Away 4.15 1.25 84.2 6 2 0 10.2 2.6 1.1
2019Home 8.10 2.40 10.0 0 2 0 8.1 9.9 1.8
2019Away 9.00 2.00 4.0 0 0 0 13.5 6.8 0.0
2018Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017Home 3.14 1.28 94.2 6 4 0 10.4 2.6 0.6
2017Away 3.90 1.21 80.2 6 2 0 10.0 2.3 1.1
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Stat Review
How does Jimmy Nelson compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 70 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
1.07
 
K/9
9.6
 
BB/9
9.0
 
HR/9
1.3
 
Fastball
92.1 mph
 
ERA
8.36
 
WHIP
2.29
 
BABIP
.395
 
GB/FB
1.07
 
Left On Base
61.6%
 
Exit Velocity
85.5 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.7%
 
Spin Rate
2524 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
34.9%
 
Swinging Strike
8.2%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Everything finally came together for Nelson in 2017, but a shoulder injury suffered while running the bases in September cut short what was the best season to date for him and puts a cloud over his 2018 campaign. Nelson struggled in a couple starts early, but over his final 24 outings, he posted a 3.13 ERA and struck out a whopping 176 batters over 146.2 innings. He did not add much velocity, but he made major strides in the control and home-run prevention departments and caused plenty of uncertainty with both a quality slider and curveball. Nelson's strikeout numbers would have made him an appealing target in the earlier rounds of 2018 drafts, but he needed surgery to repair a torn labrum, and will miss, according to the Brewers, a "meaningful" portion of the 2018 campaign. While he lacks a target date for his return, Nelson will be worth grabbing as a lottery ticket at some point in drafts in leagues with ample reserve or disabled list spots. Whether or not that ticket pays off will not be known until he gets further into his recovery.
Nelson wasn't great in 2015, but he gave fantasy owners and Brewers fans reason to believe big things could be in his future if he could just harness his control. So much for that. In 2016, Nelson walk rate jumped to 4.3 BB/9, a rise of a full point over his 2015 mark. The result was a mediocre 4.62 ERA, as he paid dearly for each of the career-high 25 home runs he allowed. Nelson threw his curveball for a ball more than 40 percent of the time, making it easy for hitters to just spit on it and wait for him to throw the fastball. His sinker become too predictable as a result and couldn't do the job it was supposed to, as hitters managed 12 home runs and a .472 slugging percentage against it. The Brewers should be patient with the 27-year-old Nelson, but he's running out of chances to figure things out and prove he belongs in a major league rotation.
Nelson finished last year with mediocre numbers. He has showed big-time stuff since his arrival in 2013 but hasn't been able to harness his control. He walked 3.3 batters per nine innings and had four starts with at least four walks, including one start in which he walked eight in just 3.1 innings. The upside is obvious, as Nelson had six starts of at least six shutout innings – only 10 major leaguers had more. If Nelson can cut out the lowest of his lows – the three starts in which he allowed at least six earned runs – he could become a great pitcher. Nelson turns 27 this year, so he needs to turn that corner sooner rather than later.
Nelson’s showing with Triple-A Nashville in 2014 was some type of spectacular, as he posted a 1.46 ERA and limited opposing hitters to a .179 batting average in the hitter’s haven known as the PCL. He didn’t experience the same type of success after being called up to the big club, but he should at some point thanks to a quality fastball and slider and his ability to keep the ball in the park. Though Nelson clearly does not need more work against minor league hitters, he may get it, as the Brewers could send him to Triple-A to keep him stretched out as a starter if he does not secure a spot in the big league rotation during the spring.
Nelson emerged as the Brewers’ top prospect in 2013, posting a 3.25 ERA and striking out 163 batters in 152.1 innings across the top two levels of the minor leagues. His walk rate jumped sharply at Triple-A, but he still managed to give up just two home runs over 83.1 innings in the hitter-friendly PCL. Nelson features both a plus fastball and slider, and he is also working on developing a changeup. That pitch could be the key to his success, but the Brewers have high hopes for Nelson in the future. He figures to open 2014 as the ace of the Triple-A Nashville rotation, but should be among the top options if the Brewers need to call up a starter from the minors.
After an average season in 2011 at Low-A Wisconsin, Nelson came out firing on all cylinders at High-A Brevard County in 2012. In 13 starts, he had a 2.21 ERA with 77 strikeouts and a 1.08 WHIP before receiving a promotion to Double-A Huntsville in June. Nelson found mixed success in 10 starts at that level and finished with a 3.91 ERA while struggling a bit with command (1.1 K/BB). Overall, last season was a step forward for Nelson, and it re-established his place among the Brewers' better pitching prospects. He will likely return to Double-A to begin 2013, but could receive his first exposure to Triple-A in Nashville. If he fares well, a late-season big league callup is not out of the question given the lack of depth in the Milwaukee rotation.
More Fantasy News
Moved to 60-day IL
PMilwaukee Brewers
Elbow
August 5, 2019
Nelson (elbow) was shifted to the 60-day injured list Monday.
ANALYSIS
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Next outing slated for Wednesday
PMilwaukee Brewers
Elbow
July 22, 2019
Nelson (elbow) will make his next rehab appearance Wednesday for Triple-A San Antonio, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
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Throws one inning
PMilwaukee Brewers
Elbow
July 21, 2019
Nelson (elbow) allowed an earned run on two hits with no walks and a strikeout in a rehab appearance with Low-A Wisconsin, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
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Continuing rehab assignment
PMilwaukee Brewers
Elbow
July 21, 2019
Nelson (elbow) has been assigned to Low-A Wisconsin for a rehab assignment and will make an appearance Sunday.
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Rehab appearance scheduled
PMilwaukee Brewers
Elbow
July 17, 2019
Nelson (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Low-A Wisconsin on Sunday, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
ANALYSIS
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