Luis Severino
Luis Severino
25-Year-Old PitcherSP
New York Yankees
10-Day IL
Injury Lat
Est. Return 7/1/2019
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Severino had an amazing season considering he makes his home starts in Williamsport Northeast. Most of his metrics were a carbon copy of his 2017 breakout season. He allowed two or fewer earned runs in 19 starts and struck out eight or more hitters in 13 starts. All kidding aside about his home ballpark, Sevvy was a monster at home, notching a 2.74 ERA while holding the opposition to a .217/.270/.337 line over 92 innings. The road games were where he was more mortal, as he had a 3.99 ERA and allowed a .255/.303/.416 line over 99 innings away from Yankee Stadium. It looked as if he would cruise to a Cy Young Award at the break, going into it with a 2.31 ERA and 14 wins. Severino won five games in the second half with a 5.57 ERA. He wasn't that bad (3.37 FIP), but he was giving up significantly more line drives while generating fewer groundballs. On top of that, he injured his shoulder warming up for his first spring training game and is expected to start the season on the injured list. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a four-year, $40 million contract with the Yankees in February of 2019, avoiding arbitration. Contract includes $15 million team option ($2.75 million buyout) for 2023.
Lat strain isn't new
PNew York Yankees
Lat
April 17, 2019
Severino's Grade 2 lat strain isn't a setback but has been around since the day he strained his shoulder, Lindsey Adler of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
Severino says that both injuries occurred at the same time, but only the shoulder issue was picked up in his first MRI. The lack of a setback is at least mildly encouraging but doesn't change his overall timeline. He's still at least five weeks from taking part in baseball activities and will then have to build his arm strength back up before returning to game action.
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-10%
BAA vs RHP
2019
No Stats
2018
 
 
-10%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-10%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .236 710 206 53 153 37 2 18
Since 2017vs Right .213 853 244 44 170 32 1 22
2019vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018vs Left .252 351 102 27 81 19 2 6
2018vs Right .227 429 118 19 92 20 1 13
2017vs Left .221 359 104 26 72 18 0 12
2017vs Right .198 424 126 25 78 12 0 9
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-3%
ERA on Road
2019
No Stats
2018
 
 
-31%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-40%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 3.24 1.04 189.0 18 7 0 10.7 2.3 1.1
Since 2017Away 3.13 1.14 195.2 15 7 0 10.4 2.3 0.8
2019Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018Home 2.74 1.04 92.0 10 2 0 10.8 2.2 0.8
2018Away 3.99 1.24 99.1 9 6 0 10.0 2.2 1.0
2017Home 3.71 1.04 97.0 8 5 0 10.6 2.4 1.4
2017Away 2.24 1.04 96.1 6 1 0 10.8 2.3 0.6
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Luis Severino
Regan's Rumblings: 30 Teams, 30 Recommendations
Yesterday
Dave Regan offers up one move that each MLB team could make that would have fantasy impact, like having the Braves sign Craig Kimbrel.
Fantasy Baseball Injury Report: Clevinger on 60-day IL
9 days ago
Cleveland will be without Mike Clevinger for at least 60 days as he was placed on the injured list for a strain of his right teres major muscle.
Mound Musings: Life, the Universe and Everything
13 days ago
Brad Johnson outlines what he focuses on when comparing pitchers or deciding whether to start specific pitchers. He also details the struggles of dealing with injuries like the one sustained by Luis Sererino.
SXM Highlights: Should Liss Drop Severino?
14 days ago
Liss commiserates with Todd Zola over whether or not he should cut Luis Severino
The Long Game: Free Agent Freefall
14 days ago
Erik Siegrist examines the market forces that have kept Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel at home to begin the season and wonders whether 2020 free agents like Khris Davis will also have trouble getting paid.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
A year later than expected, Severino proved that the flashes he showed as a rookie in the second half of 2015 were indicative of his upside. While Masahiro Tanaka scuffled in the first half, Severino thrived, mixing his arsenal of a high-90s fastball, slider and improved changeup effectively to become one of the best starters in the American League. He threw more pitches in the strike zone than ever before (49.3 percent), held hitters to a lower contact rate on those pitches (82.3 percent), and made hitters chase pitches outside the zone at the highest rate of his career (31.3 percent). Home runs are still his greatest weakness, and he allowed 15 in 97 innings at Yankee Stadium compared to six in 96.1 innings on the road, but as long as he keeps his walk rate (2.4 BB/9) in check, the long balls are unlikely to derail him. Severino will likely be treated as a top-10 starting pitcher in most draft rooms for 2018, but the increased price and hype appear to be warranted.
Severino had a breakout stint as a 21-year-old in 2015, working to a 2.89 ERA over 11 starts and looking poised to join the top of the rotation. Though there were signs that he might take a bit of a step back -- a 4.44 FIP, struggles with the long ball, and an unsustainably high strand rate of 83.3 percent -- few could have predicted how disastrous the 2016 campaign would be. Through seven starts, he was 0-6 with a 7.46 ERA and had allowed eight home runs in just 35 innings, leading to a demotion to the minors to straighten things out. Severino joined the bullpen after coming back up to the majors, where he was terrific to the tune of a 0.39 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 23.1 innings. Despite his success in the bullpen, the Yankees will likely try again with the young righty as a starter in 2017, though he proved too unreliable last season for owners to confidently count on him out of the gate. As a low-risk gamble, however, he could pay off handsomely.
The Yankees bypassed the starting pitching trade market in July, instead declaring Severino the solution to their problems. They were right and Severino was dominant down the stretch. There are some issues to iron out, including the home runs, but he showed an impressive three-pitch mix that was effective against both righties and lefties. His fastball carries him which is often the case when a guy throws 95-96 mph on average. He gets both swings-and-misses and groundballs at a good clip with it, but his changeup is an above-average strikeout weapon and an elite groundball inducer (62%). The slider is the weakest of the three, but still showed flashes of success. With 162 combined innings in 2015, Severino should have few, if any, innings restrictions in 2016. He's set to join Masahiro Tanaka atop the Yankees' rotation and could be a star in the making.
No pitcher in the minor leagues enhanced their stock as much as Severino during the 2014 season. He climbed two full levels, posting a 127:27 K:BB ratio and a 2.46 ERA in 113.1 innings between three stops, thanks to a mid-90s heater and a slider and changeup that work well off said fastball. Severino, who finished the season as a 20-year-old at Double-A Trenton, has never failed at a level, but he has never been truly tested. In 24 starts last season, he gave up more than three earned runs on just one occasion. This is what makes his upcoming season so intriguing. Despite being just six feet tall, he weighs almost 200 pounds, so he should be able to handle a full season. He also happens to pitch in a system where advanced starting pitching will be pushed aggressively, as the Yankees' starting rotation is chock-full of injury concerns and below-average options. Assuming he was unowned going into last season, he should be a top-5 pick in dynasty drafts in 2015.
More Fantasy News
Shut down with lat strain
PNew York Yankees
Shoulder
April 9, 2019
Severino (shoulder) was diagnosed Tuesday with a Grade 2 lat strain and will be shut down for the next six weeks, Lindsey Adler of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Heading for more tests
PNew York Yankees
Shoulder
April 8, 2019
Severino (shoulder) will head to New York for an MRI on Tuesday, Lindsey Adler of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Still not throwing off mound
PNew York Yankees
Shoulder
April 2, 2019
Severino (shoulder) is still playing long toss and has not advanced to mound work, Lindsey Adler of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Nearing return to mound work
PNew York Yankees
Shoulder
March 30, 2019
Manager Aaron Boone said Saturday that Severino (shoulder) could throw a bullpen session early in the upcoming week, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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IL move official
PNew York Yankees
Shoulder
March 28, 2019
The Yankees officially placed Severino (shoulder) on the 10-day injured list Thursday.
ANALYSIS
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