Luis Severino
Luis Severino
24-Year-Old PitcherSP
New York Yankees
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Severino had an amazing season considering he makes his home starts in Williamsport Northeast. Most of his metrics were a carbon copy of his 2017 breakout season. He allowed two or fewer earned runs in 19 starts and struck out eight or more hitters in 13 starts. All kidding aside about his home ballpark, Sevvy was a monster at home, notching a 2.74 ERA while holding the opposition to a .217/.270/.337 line over 92 innings. The road games were where he was more mortal, as he had a 3.99 ERA and allowed a .255/.303/.416 line over 99 innings away from Yankee Stadium. It looked as if he would cruise to a Cy Young Award at the break, going into it with a 2.31 ERA and 14 wins. Severino won five games in the second half with a 5.57 ERA. He wasn't that bad (3.37 FIP), but he was giving up significantly more line drives while generating fewer groundballs. Expect a rebound and more ace-like numbers in 2019. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a four-year, $40 million contract that includes a fifth-year club option with the Yankees in February of 2019.
Reaches multi-year deal with Yanks
PNew York Yankees
February 15, 2019
Severino signed a four-year, $40 million contract with the Yankees on Friday, avoiding arbitration, Jeff Passan of reports.
The deal buys out Severino's remaining arbitration years and also includes a fifth-year club option for 2023. The right-hander -- who turns 25 on Feb. 20 -- made about $600,000 in 2018 and had a 3.18 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 10.5 K/9 as a full-time starter for the Yankees over the past two seasons. Severino is once again expected to serve as New York's Opening Day starter in 2019.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .241 861 238 65 189 44 3 22
Since 2016vs Right .224 1014 278 57 212 46 1 29
2018vs Left .252 351 102 27 81 19 2 6
2018vs Right .227 429 118 19 92 20 1 13
2017vs Left .221 359 104 26 72 18 0 12
2017vs Right .198 424 126 25 78 12 0 9
2016vs Left .263 151 32 12 36 7 1 4
2016vs Right .286 161 34 13 42 14 0 7
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
ERA on Road
ERA at Home
ERA on Road
ERA on Road
Since 2016Home 3.73 1.11 229.0 19 11 0 10.3 2.4 1.3
Since 2016Away 3.45 1.19 226.2 17 11 0 10.0 2.5 0.8
2018Home 2.74 1.04 92.0 10 2 0 10.8 2.2 0.8
2018Away 3.99 1.24 99.1 9 6 0 10.0 2.2 1.0
2017Home 3.71 1.04 97.0 8 5 0 10.6 2.4 1.4
2017Away 2.24 1.04 96.1 6 1 0 10.8 2.3 0.6
2016Home 6.08 1.43 40.0 1 4 0 8.8 2.7 2.0
2016Away 5.52 1.48 31.0 2 4 0 7.8 3.8 0.6
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Stat Review
How does Luis Severino compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
97.6 mph
Strand %
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Luis Severino
SXM Highlights: Should Severino Worry Us?
3 days ago
DVR & Clay debate whether or not we should be worried about generally Top 10 ranked SP Luis Severino.
The Z Files: Practice What You Preach
18 days ago
Todd Zola looks at a couple of recent drafts in which he avoided chasing aces early, and instead found himself with Mike Foltynewicz topping his staff.
Farm Futures: AL East: 128 Prospects You Need To Know
26 days ago
James Anderson kicks off his tour of fantasy-relevant prospects around MLB with the AL East, and says you should believe the hype on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The Z Files: Drafting a Pitching Staff
67 days ago
Todd Zola walks through how he assembles a fantasy pitching staff and explains why Max Scherzer is the only hurler to get a pre-draft plan named after him.
The Z Files: Historical Top 200
100 days ago
Todd Zola takes a look at the end-of-season top-200 performers over the last five years and thinks Charlie Blackmon's being discounted too heavily in early drafts given his track record.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
A year later than expected, Severino proved that the flashes he showed as a rookie in the second half of 2015 were indicative of his upside. While Masahiro Tanaka scuffled in the first half, Severino thrived, mixing his arsenal of a high-90s fastball, slider and improved changeup effectively to become one of the best starters in the American League. He threw more pitches in the strike zone than ever before (49.3 percent), held hitters to a lower contact rate on those pitches (82.3 percent), and made hitters chase pitches outside the zone at the highest rate of his career (31.3 percent). Home runs are still his greatest weakness, and he allowed 15 in 97 innings at Yankee Stadium compared to six in 96.1 innings on the road, but as long as he keeps his walk rate (2.4 BB/9) in check, the long balls are unlikely to derail him. Severino will likely be treated as a top-10 starting pitcher in most draft rooms for 2018, but the increased price and hype appear to be warranted.
Severino had a breakout stint as a 21-year-old in 2015, working to a 2.89 ERA over 11 starts and looking poised to join the top of the rotation. Though there were signs that he might take a bit of a step back -- a 4.44 FIP, struggles with the long ball, and an unsustainably high strand rate of 83.3 percent -- few could have predicted how disastrous the 2016 campaign would be. Through seven starts, he was 0-6 with a 7.46 ERA and had allowed eight home runs in just 35 innings, leading to a demotion to the minors to straighten things out. Severino joined the bullpen after coming back up to the majors, where he was terrific to the tune of a 0.39 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 23.1 innings. Despite his success in the bullpen, the Yankees will likely try again with the young righty as a starter in 2017, though he proved too unreliable last season for owners to confidently count on him out of the gate. As a low-risk gamble, however, he could pay off handsomely.
The Yankees bypassed the starting pitching trade market in July, instead declaring Severino the solution to their problems. They were right and Severino was dominant down the stretch. There are some issues to iron out, including the home runs, but he showed an impressive three-pitch mix that was effective against both righties and lefties. His fastball carries him which is often the case when a guy throws 95-96 mph on average. He gets both swings-and-misses and groundballs at a good clip with it, but his changeup is an above-average strikeout weapon and an elite groundball inducer (62%). The slider is the weakest of the three, but still showed flashes of success. With 162 combined innings in 2015, Severino should have few, if any, innings restrictions in 2016. He's set to join Masahiro Tanaka atop the Yankees' rotation and could be a star in the making.
No pitcher in the minor leagues enhanced their stock as much as Severino during the 2014 season. He climbed two full levels, posting a 127:27 K:BB ratio and a 2.46 ERA in 113.1 innings between three stops, thanks to a mid-90s heater and a slider and changeup that work well off said fastball. Severino, who finished the season as a 20-year-old at Double-A Trenton, has never failed at a level, but he has never been truly tested. In 24 starts last season, he gave up more than three earned runs on just one occasion. This is what makes his upcoming season so intriguing. Despite being just six feet tall, he weighs almost 200 pounds, so he should be able to handle a full season. He also happens to pitch in a system where advanced starting pitching will be pushed aggressively, as the Yankees' starting rotation is chock-full of injury concerns and below-average options. Assuming he was unowned going into last season, he should be a top-5 pick in dynasty drafts in 2015.
More Fantasy News
Expected to start Opening Day
PNew York Yankees
February 13, 2019
Manager Aaron Boone said Severino is expected to start for the Yankees on Opening Day, Bryan Hoch of reports.
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Gets rocked in loss
PNew York Yankees
October 9, 2018
Severino took the loss in Monday's defeat to the Red Sox. He went three innings and gave up six runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out two.
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To start Game 3 of ALDS
PNew York Yankees
October 5, 2018
Severino will pitch Game 3 of the ALDS against the Red Sox on Monday, Bryan Hoch of reports.
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Named as wild-card starter
PNew York Yankees
October 2, 2018
Severino will start Wednesday's AL Wild Card Game against the Athletics.
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Won't pitch Sunday
PNew York Yankees
September 30, 2018
Severino won't be available out of the bullpen against the Red Sox on Sunday, Brendan Kuty of reports.
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