Rhys Hoskins
Rhys Hoskins
27-Year-Old First Baseman1B
Philadelphia Phillies
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Hoskins missed the final two weeks of the season with an elbow injury and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery in early October. Recovery from the procedure is expected to take four to six months, meaning he has a chance to be ready by Opening Day but is far from guaranteed to avoid the injured list. Given how he was hitting, his absence may have been the reason the Phillies missed out on the playoffs by a single game. After hitting a forgettable .226/.364/.454 in 2019, Hoskins improved across the board in 2020, posting a .245/.384/.503 line with 10 homers in 41 games. His walk rate remained quite high at 15.7%, while his 23.2 K% was quite acceptable for a power hitter. Most importantly, he made far better contact than in the previous season, with his barrel rate shooting up from 9.7% to 14.8%. He's still not a top-tier first baseman, but he rebounded nicely following a down year. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#163
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $4.8 million contract with the Phillies in January of 2021.
Cleared to play
1BPhiladelphia Phillies
February 22, 2021
Hoskins (elbow) has been medically cleared to play and expects to be ready for Opening Day, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Hoskins bounced back from a somewhat disappointing 2019 campaign in last year's shortened season, hitting .245/.384/.503. His campaign was cut short after just 41 games, however, as he suffered an elbow injury in mid-September which eventually required Tommy John surgery. That procedure carries a much shorter recovery timeline for hitters than it does for pitchers, but his readiness for Opening Day still appeared in doubt at the time of the procedure. He's evidently found himself on the fast end of the timetable, so he should have plenty of time to get up to speed and play a full regular season, barring setbacks.
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Batting Stats
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2020
2019
2018
2017
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
23
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
18
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2018
 
 
+8%
OPS vs LHP
2020
 
 
+66%
OPS vs LHP
2019
 
 
+28%
OPS vs LHP
2018
 
 
+35%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2018vs Left .891 396 64 16 55 2 .244 .419 .472
Since 2018vs Right .823 1151 146 57 152 6 .235 .342 .481
2020vs Left 1.241 55 14 4 12 1 .341 .509 .732
2020vs Right .749 130 21 6 14 0 .209 .331 .418
2019vs Left .980 187 27 9 27 1 .261 .444 .536
2019vs Right .764 516 59 20 58 1 .215 .335 .428
2018vs Left .665 154 23 3 16 0 .192 .357 .308
2018vs Right .900 505 66 31 80 5 .260 .352 .548
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2018
 
 
+17%
OPS at Home
2020
 
 
+28%
OPS at Home
2019
 
 
+15%
OPS at Home
2018
 
 
+16%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2018Home .908 772 105 40 120 1 .258 .381 .528
Since 2018Away .773 775 105 33 87 7 .216 .343 .430
2020Home .984 103 18 4 14 0 .288 .447 .538
2020Away .770 82 17 6 12 1 .197 .305 .465
2019Home .880 335 42 16 47 0 .248 .376 .504
2019Away .762 368 44 13 38 2 .206 .353 .409
2018Home .913 334 45 20 59 1 .260 .365 .548
2018Away .786 325 44 14 37 4 .231 .342 .444
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Stat Review
How does Rhys Hoskins compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.67
 
BB Rate
15.7%
 
K Rate
23.2%
 
BABIP
.276
 
ISO
.258
 
AVG
.245
 
OBP
.384
 
SLG
.503
 
OPS
.887
 
wOBA
.390
 
Exit Velocity
82.9 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
31.5%
 
Barrels/PA
9.7%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Hoskins didn't have to play left field or carry the Phillies' offense on his own, but those changes failed to have the desired effect in his age-26 season. His offensive performance took a step back almost everywhere, as his slash line dropped from .246/.354/.496 to .226/.364/.454 and his homer total fell from 34 to 29. Outside of a 16.5% walk rate (fifth-best among qualified hitters), those numbers aren't really good enough for a first baseman on a contending team, especially considering the league-wide power explosion, though there doesn't appear to be an immediate threat to Hoskins' playing time. Statcast doesn't offer much hope for a regression-related bounceback, suggesting he overachieved his xBA (.216) and xSLG (.405). A better performance in 2020 can't be ruled out given Hoskins' past success and hitter-friendly home park, but he's less interesting than he was last offseason.
Hoskins couldn't maintain the incredible pace that saw him hit 18 homers in 50 games as a rookie, but that doesn't mean his second season should be considered a disappointment. He slashed .246/.354/.496 with 34 homers, 89 runs and 96 RBI, all while playing out of position in left field. Those numbers made him one of the most valuable fantasy first basemen, though with just 17 games played at the position, he's now only outfield-eligible in traditional formats. He will quickly regain 1B-eligibility after Carlos Santana was dealt this offseason. The Phillies already added Jean Segura and could add another big bat in free agency, so Hoskins' counting stats could increase, even beyond any personal improvements he makes heading into his age-26 season. His batting average may remain modest due to a flyball-heavy approach (51% flyball rate last season) but a strong 13.2% walk rate erases that weakness in OBP and points leagues.
Hoskins burst onto the scene for the Phillies in August, swatting 18 homers and driving in 48 runs during a 50-game stretch that is unmatched by other rookies throughout MLB history. A fifth-round pick out of Sacramento State in 2014, Hoskins rolled through the minor leagues with relatively limited attention until his 38-homer breakout at Double-A in 2016. The encore in 2017 included 29 homers in 475 appearances with Triple-A Lehigh Valley before his promotion, and perhaps most impressively for a young power bat is Hoskins' ability to control the strike zone. He improved his strikeout rate at Triple-A Valley (15.8 percent) and kept that number in check after the promotion to Philadelphia (21.7 percent) during the final two months. With his impressive debut Hoskin secured an everyday job, and he'll be counted on as the team's primary run-producer in the heart of the order. Don't be surprised if he's treated as a top-50 player this spring.
Hoskins had a monster year at Double-A Reading where he hit .281/.377/.566 with 38 home runs in 498 at-bats. He took advantage of a hitter-friendly park in Reading where he slashed .292/.396/.636 with 25 of his 38 home runs. Hoskins does have a solid eye at the plate and a simple but effective swing, which should allow him continued success as he advances. He hit .282 with a .920 OPS against righties and .277 with a 1.024 OPS versus lefties, but there are questions regarding whether he will hit enough when he gets to the majors and has to face better offspeed stuff. His floor is likely a platoon bat at first base, and making it as an average or better everyday first baseman is not out of the question. His hit tool is certainly a better bet to play against big league pitching than Reading teammate Dylan Cozens, who led the minors with 40 home runs. A strong start to the season at Triple-A could have Hoskins pushing for a look in the majors by midseason.
Hoskins, a fifth-round pick in 2014 out of Cal State Sacramento, popped up on prospect radars last season after a hot start at Low-A Lakewood. He posted nearly identical numbers at both Lakewood and High-A Clearwater last season. His BABIP was a bit high in 2015 so he might not be a .300 hitter, but he does have a good eye at the plate with solid pop, and he makes contact at an 80 percent clip. Those skills should allow him to succeed when he is moved up to Double-A, and if he continues to hit then he could arrive in the majors in 2017 as the Phillies' replacement for Ryan Howard at first base.
More Fantasy News
Avoids arbiter
1BPhiladelphia Phillies
Elbow
January 15, 2021
Hoskins (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $4.8 million deal with the Phillies on Friday, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
ANALYSIS
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Hits in cage
1BPhiladelphia Phillies
Elbow
December 31, 2020
Hoskins (elbow) shared video of himself hitting in a batting cage on his personal Twitter page Thursday.
ANALYSIS
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Making progress in rehab
1BPhiladelphia Phillies
Elbow
December 14, 2020
Hoskins is making progress in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, Meghan Montemurro of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Out up to six months after surgery
1BPhiladelphia Phillies
Elbow
October 5, 2020
Hoskins will be sidelined for the next four-to-six months after undergoing surgery on his left (non-throwing) elbow Friday, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Unlikely to return before Sunday
1BPhiladelphia Phillies
Elbow
September 23, 2020
Hoskins (elbow) is unlikely to return prior to Sunday's regular-season finale, Matt Breen of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
ANALYSIS
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