Roberto Osuna

Osuna is a rare case of Houston acquiring a pitcher and that pitcher's skills remaining fairly constant. They typically squeeze a bit more value out of pitchers they trade for or sign, but Osuna was already so good that there may not have been another level for him to get to. He has averaged 30 saves a year over his five-year career with excellent skills, and now shuts the door for one of the best teams in baseball. His off-the-field issues suppressed his cost last year, but those issues no longer appear to be impacting his status in baseball or on fantasy rosters. Roughly 35 percent of closers lose their job each season, so your job is to minimize risk while hunting for saves. Between the chalk lines, there is very little risk with Osuna and his pitching skills. If we were to build a closer in a skills lab, this would be one of the better prototypes.

An arrest on an assault charge in May and the subsequent suspension sidelined Osuna for an extended period of time. Though the assault charge was ultimately withdrawn after the complainant said she would not travel to Toronto to testify, the incident still casts a shadow over his 2018 season. While serving the 75-game ban, Osuna was traded from the Blue Jays to the Astros. He achieved great results for Houston over the final two months, quickly taking over the closer role and converting all 13 of his save opportunities down the stretch and into the postseason, although the strikeouts weren't really there (7.5 K/9). The skills were still strong -- 95.2 mph average fastball velocity, 16.9% swinging-strike rate, 3.5% walk rate with Houston -- and there's little reason to think the Astros will bring someone aboard in 2019 specifically to take over the ninth inning.

Osuna produced arguably his best statistical season in 2017, churning out a 29.7 K-BB percentage that ranked seventh among all relievers while conceding only three homers, a notable development after he struggled to rein in the long ball during his first two seasons. While those numbers pointed to Osuna being a dominant endgamer, things didn't exactly play out that way anecdotally, as the 23-year-old blew 10 of 49 save chances and also battled anxiety issues, leading to speculation that he might be pulled from closing duties in early August after an especially rough stretch. Osuna righted the ship soon after and cemented himself as the Blue Jays' closer heading into 2018, but after the turmoil-filled season, it may not be wise to include him among the uppermost tier of closers. Even so, another hefty save total likely awaits Osuna, who should also be in store for a sizable improvement in the 3.38 ERA he delivered in 2017 if his fluky 59.5 percent strand rate aligns more closely with his 74.2 percent career mark.

After a successful 20-save campaign in 2015, Osuna began his sophomore season with the newly acquired Drew Storen threatening to take the closer role. By the end of 2016, the latter was no longer on the roster and Osuna had locked down 36 saves in 42 chances. Among AL relievers, the right-hander finished sixth in saves and tied for fourth with 72 appearances. He demonstrated elite command by averaging more than a strikeout per inning and 1.7 BB/9. The 22-year-old's average fastball (95.8 mph) is the real deal, while his 0.93 WHIP ranks among the best in MLB. His Achilles heel was a tendency to give up the long ball. After serving up three home runs over 39.2 innings prior to the All-Star break, Osuna surrendered six in 34.1 second-half innings. Needless to say, his post-break ERA of 3.15 was significantly worse than the 2.27 he posted before the Midsummer Classic. Osuna has the tools to be a perennial top-10 closer.

Osuna relieved all of three games in recent years entering last season, so naturally he would become one of the better relievers in baseball, saving 20 games last season with a 2.58 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. The big question is, "where does he go from here?" He wants to return to being a starter, and the Blue Jays seem inclined to oblige him, having acquired Drew Storen from the Nationals in January. He's 21, and one would imagine the Jays would limit his innings in 2016 if he were to indeed return to starting, as large workloads at that age -- and large jumps in workloads -- are risky plays for young pitchers. As a reliever, he’s rosterable in all formats. As a starter, his value is at least cut in half because it is tough to envision him amassing more than 150 innings.

After undergoing Tommy John surgery in July of 2013, Osuna surprisingly made seven starts for High-A Dunedin in the final month of the 2014 season. He continued to build his arm strength after the season, pitching in the Arizona Fall League, and he should be ready to pitch without significant restriction in 2015. Osuna shows significant polish for a 19-year-old, and before his surgery he had better control of his pitches than former Jays farmhand Aaron Sanchez. In his brief run at High-A to finish the season, Osuna had no problem missing bats, punching out 30 in 22 innings, but his control is clearly not all the way back. Following Tommy John surgery, control and command are often the last things to return, and this will need to be the primary area of focus for the young righty in 2015. Rather than return Osuna to High-A Dunedin, the Jays have opted to make him a part of their bullpen to begin the season. If he pitches well, it's not out of the question to think that he may obtain a high-leverage role by the end of the year.

Osuna's ascent up the Toronto organization was stalled in 2013, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in late July. Prior to the procedure, he held an ugly 5.53 ERA for Low-A Lansing, albeit with excellent peripherals (10.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9). Assuming he makes a full recovery, Osuna is still one of the better pitching prospects in the Toronto organization. At best, he'll return to minor league action late in the 2014 season.