This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
We're making the turn with part four of the six-part series on some key arms to watch in each of baseball's divisions. As you know, these pitchers may be primed for a breakout, ready to take a significant step forward or they might be on the precipice, more likely to tumble into the abyss. In either case, you will want to be aware of these hurlers on draft day 2015. Let's get to it this week with:
Seven Arms to Watch in the NL Central
Jake Arrieta (CHC) - Longtime followers know that two of my primary rules in fantasy baseball are to always take potential upside over proven mediocrity, and always avoid adding Cubs, especially pitchers, to your roster. In Arrieta's case I have to make an exception to the no Cubs rule. I followed him closely when he was in the Baltimore system. He had a zippy fastball that sat in the mid-90s and at times he showed quality secondary stuff. The problem was the "at times" part of that equation. He could be a stud one outing and completely lose the zone in his next. Lack of command meant the walks rose, and get me over the plate pitches turn into hit me over the fence pitches. It was frustrating. He moved to Chicago, and I pretty much wrote him off. Mistake. For whatever reason, the Cubs may have begun to solve some pitching riddles, and Arrieta is the poster child for that program. He is doing
We're making the turn with part four of the six-part series on some key arms to watch in each of baseball's divisions. As you know, these pitchers may be primed for a breakout, ready to take a significant step forward or they might be on the precipice, more likely to tumble into the abyss. In either case, you will want to be aware of these hurlers on draft day 2015. Let's get to it this week with:
Seven Arms to Watch in the NL Central
Jake Arrieta (CHC) - Longtime followers know that two of my primary rules in fantasy baseball are to always take potential upside over proven mediocrity, and always avoid adding Cubs, especially pitchers, to your roster. In Arrieta's case I have to make an exception to the no Cubs rule. I followed him closely when he was in the Baltimore system. He had a zippy fastball that sat in the mid-90s and at times he showed quality secondary stuff. The problem was the "at times" part of that equation. He could be a stud one outing and completely lose the zone in his next. Lack of command meant the walks rose, and get me over the plate pitches turn into hit me over the fence pitches. It was frustrating. He moved to Chicago, and I pretty much wrote him off. Mistake. For whatever reason, the Cubs may have begun to solve some pitching riddles, and Arrieta is the poster child for that program. He is doing everything I had hoped to see with the Orioles, and I think there is still ceiling to discover. I wish the Cubs' kids were better with the leather, but he is on a team that could potentially be a fountain of excitement.
Homer Bailey (CIN) - I add Bailey to lists like this pretty much out of habit these days. The Reds are doing the same. They crossed his palm with gold last year based more on what could be than what has been. Oh, he will string together starts looking like one of the best pitchers in the game. Then, just when you think he's arrived, he plods through several starts that remind you of a slow-pitch softball game. The arm is there - he routinely sits in the mid-90s with his fastball, and his secondary stuff can be high quality as well, you just never know for sure which Bailey will show up on any given day. Is it a matter of nagging minor injuries that make him a frustrating proposition? Does he lose focus at times? It could be a little of both. He did suffer a flexor mass injury last season that cost him about 10 starts, and he has just returned to the mound following an off-season of rehab so his status for Opening Day is still up in the air, but if he avoids any setbacks, he should be in the rotation early on. Is this the career year he is sitting on? Get out your crystal ball. But, with his talent I want to own him when it happens.
Jameson Taillon (PIT) - One of the things I looked forward to the most last season was the debut of Taillon. I love this guy. He has a mid-upper 90s fastball (and it was getting even faster) that sinks and darts. He throws it to spots consistently and actually displays the mound presence to throw it with complete confidence. Add in a knee-buckling curveball, and a rapidly improving change-up and it equates to a pitcher who can be a force from his first day on a major league mound. Unfortunately, Tommy John stopped by and it cost him all of last year. The Pirates won't have him in Pittsburgh on Opening Day as he continues his rehab. I expect him to spend the first half of 2015 with Triple-A Indianapolis, but he should be with the Pirates soon after, and you want him on your roster. If you are in a keeper or dynasty you want him on your roster even more. He has one of the most impressive heaters in pro ball, and he is mature beyond his years so the secondary stuff will be coming quickly. Buy him now.
Michael Wacha (STL) - There were plenty of fantasy owners on the Wacha bandwagon prior to the 2014 season, but shoulder woes took the wind out of his sails and should depress his price tag going into this year. Yes, I hate shoulder injuries because they can linger forever, and they can become serious virtually overnight, but Wacha pitched well early last year (2.45 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP through May) and I think he deserves a shot at putting the injury concerns behind him. He pitched just 107 innings in 2014, and he was visibly rusty when he returned from the shoulder problems in September so his ERA rose to 3.20 while he posted a 1.20 WHIP for the year -- rather pedestrian numbers for Wacha when healthy. He's only 23 and is already capable of posting a sub 3.00 ERA with about a strikeout an inning. There is some risk, but if owners in your league discount his upside and the rest of your rotation is pretty solid, take a shot and perhaps he can give you second or third starter numbers for an attractive price.
Matt Garza (MIL) - Garza isn't a high profile pick these days. He's been in the major leagues for nine seasons, posting respectable, but not dazzling numbers, and he has had his share of bumps and bruises in recent seasons, sometimes cutting into his innings. Milwaukee signed him to a long term deal prior to last year, and they hope he can provide the same thing a fantasy owner would look for -- stability in their rotation. He generally shows good command of the strike zone, and a modest strikeout rate, but when he keeps the ball in the park, his peripherals improve. He struggled early on last year, but when he settled in, appearing to be fully healthy, he put up a nice 2.80 ERA over the second half, and I think he could carry that over to 2015. He'll slot into the middle of the Brewers' rotation, and pitching in a park that suits his pitching style and in a softer hitting division, he could provide a good number of "do no harm" innings for his fantasy owners. Consistent pitchers like Garza are valuable if they aren't expected to lead a staff, but rather compliment the top of the rotation.
Charlie Morton (PIT) - Now we're getting into the "fun" value picks -- guys who you can typically buy cheap, and then grin all season while they give you useful numbers. Let me begin by saying that I was not always a Morton fan. When he arrived a few years ago, I wasn't sold on his long term future. He has gradually won me over, and if he could stay healthy for a full season -- he's only topped 170 innings once in seven years -- I think he could be a nice back-of-the-rotation option. Last year he had the distinction of leading the league in hit batsmen (19) even though he tossed just 157 innings, but his strikeout rate rose to a respectable 7.71, and he continued his extreme groundball tendencies. He walks a few too many, but all those groundballs minimize the damage with a low home run rate and he can be a tough arm to gauge when his trademark sinker is on. He will have reason to bear down as performance will be mandatory to keep his rotation spot as the Pirates bring along Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow so the motivation is there. Morton is another one who could give your rotation an inexpensive boost.
Wei-Chung Wang (MIL) - In the category of deep sleeper, give Wang a look if your league's roster restrictions allow a draft and stash selection. That's pretty much what the Brewers did, taking him from Pittsburgh in the Rule 5 draft. That meant he had to stay in Milwaukee if the team wanted to avoid offering him back to the Pirates. He wasn't ready for the show, but the Brewers kept him stashed in their bullpen where he tossed just 17 low leverage innings (with an ugly 10.90 ERA). That's quite a commitment. Any time I see a Rule 5 pitcher protected like that, I take notice and make an extra effort to have a look for myself. There were some very encouraging things to look at. He's not overpowering, but his pitches all have some positive attributes. He'll head to the minor leagues to start this season now that the Brewers can reassign him without giving him back to the Pirates, but I think he could find a fairly quick path back to Milwaukee with a shot at being an option should a rotation spot open up in the second half. He has a bit of work to do, and he does fit better in a keeper/dynasty format right now, but he is a name to monitor for those seeking a possible moonshot candidate.
The Endgame Odyssey:
Here we'll cover some notes and observations on the closer scenarios across baseball. During these six weeks, the focus will be on the division featured in arms to watch.
When you discuss velocity in warp factors rather than miles per hour opposing teams know it's not good news. The Reds don't seem to be talking about moving flamethrower Aroldis Chapman to the rotation so he can continue to air it out as long as his arm stays attached. ... The Brewers struck gold with Francisco Rodriguez last season and have now re-signed him for 2015. I'm not sure that lightning will strike twice, but he's a better bet than his primary backup, Jonathan Broxton. ... I would label Mark Melancon one of the more reliable closers in the National League, and he appears durable enough to warrant a fairly heavy investment. ... The Cardinals have an arm nearly as volatile as Chapman's in Cincinnati, in Trevor Rosenthal, but he can be pretty erratic so they brought in a pretty viable option in Jordan Walden to serve as an insurance policy. If Rosenthal gets crazy, keep a close eye on him. ... The young and upcoming Cubs got a huge season out of Hector Rondon last year, and he has earned the nod heading into 2015. I really think he is better suited to a setup role, but he would probably need to stumble and former closer Jason Motte would have to be on a roll for that to happen.
Next week we'll look at Seven Arms to Watch in the AL West.
