This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
This wraps up my six-part series on some key arms to watch in each of baseball's six divisions. As you know, these pitchers may be primed for a breakout or at least be ready to take a significant step forward. In any case, you will want to be aware of these hurlers on draft day 2015. Let's get to it this week with:
Seven Arms to Watch in the NL West
Jake Peavy (SF) - At 34, Peavy is clearly not the beast he was in his glory days when he anchored San Diego's rotation. However, he does have the mound savvy to transition from pure power pitcher to a more cunning hurler who uses his wits and his stuff to overcome batters. Last season he got off to a horrible start with Boston (a 1-9 record with a 1.43 WHIP and a 4.72 ERA), he eventually left for the west coast to join the Giants in San Francisco. The air in California and the National League obviously suits Mr. Peavy. He stepped right in and went 6-4 with a 1.04 WHIP and a 2.17 ERA over 79 innings. He has developed a reputation for being a bit inconsistent during his stays with the White Sox and Red Sox, so I am hoping that will breed some hesitancy on the part of fantasy owners at the draft table this spring. His blended peripherals from 2014 should help his price as well, and I think he still has enough to help.
This wraps up my six-part series on some key arms to watch in each of baseball's six divisions. As you know, these pitchers may be primed for a breakout or at least be ready to take a significant step forward. In any case, you will want to be aware of these hurlers on draft day 2015. Let's get to it this week with:
Seven Arms to Watch in the NL West
Jake Peavy (SF) - At 34, Peavy is clearly not the beast he was in his glory days when he anchored San Diego's rotation. However, he does have the mound savvy to transition from pure power pitcher to a more cunning hurler who uses his wits and his stuff to overcome batters. Last season he got off to a horrible start with Boston (a 1-9 record with a 1.43 WHIP and a 4.72 ERA), he eventually left for the west coast to join the Giants in San Francisco. The air in California and the National League obviously suits Mr. Peavy. He stepped right in and went 6-4 with a 1.04 WHIP and a 2.17 ERA over 79 innings. He has developed a reputation for being a bit inconsistent during his stays with the White Sox and Red Sox, so I am hoping that will breed some hesitancy on the part of fantasy owners at the draft table this spring. His blended peripherals from 2014 should help his price as well, and I think he still has enough to help. He's in a favorable environment and he could come at a bit of a discount.
Trevor Cahill (ARZ) - Last year was just plain ugly. In 2012, Cahill posted 13 wins with a respectable WHIP and ERA while logging 2 innings. Then, in 2013, he suffered a hip injury and tried for awhile to pitch through it. That decimated his overall season stats, and did cost him six weeks on the disabled list in July and early August. However, he was pretty effective before the injury. Fast forward to 2014. His mechanics remained inconsistent, and as the season progressed, things went from bad to worse. His 1.61 WHIP and 5.61 ERA from last year should be enough to scare most owners away on draft day, so if he can get it back together, he could be a very nice find. Cahill is a sinkerball specialist, he generates a high percentage of outs on the ground, and he has shown the ability to pile up strikeouts. He's not overpowering, and I would like to see the walk rate drop, but he manages to induce a lot of weak contact and the groundballs help erase some of the base runners he does allow. In general, I avoid sinkerball pitchers -- when a sinker doesn't sink, it flies a long way -- but if he is past the injury and the mechanical issues it created, he has enough to help at a very cheap price.
Brandon Morrow (SD) - This one definitely requires a leap of faith. I've owned Morrow in a lot of leagues for a lot of years, and I haven't recouped my investments be sure, but I still see it, and now he'll have a go in a very pitcher-friendly environment. He just can't stay healthy, and between nagging injuries and the rust from pitching on such an irregular schedule, his upside highlights have been a succession of brief glimpses. He enjoyed a run in 2012 that generated a 1.12 WHIP and a 2.96 ERA, but even that was over just 125 innings. Combined, in 2013 and 2014 he managed only 88 innings with an ugly ERA well north of 5.00, frequent lack of command of the strike zone and a declining strikeout rate. Is he done? I don't think so. He has kept the velocity -- a mid 90s fastball that can handcuff hitters and a slider with plenty of bite when he's sharp -- but the injuries have never gone away for any length of time. Technically he is now competing for the fifth spot in the Padres rotation, but if he could somehow put those hellacious injuries behind him, he has the tools to move right to the top of the list and provide a huge boost for fantasy owners. Granted, that's a very big "if."
Daniel Hudson (ARZ) - Once upon a time, Hudson was a prized young arm making quite a statement in the major leagues. He looked good with the White Sox, then was dealt to the Diamondbacks in 2010 where he continued the excellent performance. In 2011 he was a workhorse for Arizona logging 222 innings, winning 16 games, and posting a solid 1.20 WHIP with a 3.49 ERA. So far, so good. Then he got off to a horrible start in 2012 before being shut down after just 45 innings. Since then, he has had a pair of Tommy John surgeries and barely made it back to toss three innings last September. The obvious question is can he make it all the way back after missing nearly three seasons, and the answer is unknown. Interestingly, while it was a small sample and he was pitching in relief, he was clocked at 95 mph last September, nearly two mph faster than when he was at his best. The velocity has carried over to this spring so maybe, just maybe, he is close. Certainly the Diamondbacks will continue to be cautious with him, and even if he takes a turn every five days, there will surely be an innings limit this season. Knowing he won't be a sure thing or even a full-time starter, I am willing to take a chance at the back of my rotation. If healthy, he could be a steal.
Brett Anderson (LAD) - It seems this week's roster is looking more like a MASH family reunion, than a target list for draft day, but that's where the names in this division are coming from. Anderson makes those listed above look like iron men. Since 2009 when he debuted, he has had elbow issues, including Tommy John surgery, ankle problems, back problems, and any number of other aches and pains. The last four seasons he has barely managed 200 innings, and part of those were pitching hurt. Now with the Dodgers and ticketed for the fifth spot in their rotation, he try to get his career back on course. I'm a little concerned that his velocity was down significantly last year, but I'm willing to attribute that to the back issues that shut him down in August. So why even consider an arm with his history and some things that should bring up warning signs? Basically, he could be very effective when healthy, and the Dodgers coughed up $10 million dollars to sign him in December - a number that could balloon up to $14 million with incentives. I wouldn't bid anything even close to that on draft day, but there are obvious believers in his ability to enjoy a renaissance season.
Jordan Lyles (COL) - If Clayton Kershaw pitched half of his games in Coors Field, I would plug him into my rotation and he would stay there. There are a handful of others who would receive the same level of confidence. But, it would be a small handful. That said, looking for value on the Rockies' staff is a bit tricky. It's not the hitter's paradise it once was, but it can be a graveyard on any given day, so I'm going to give their slot to Lyles with the understanding that he is not likely to be an everyday plug-n-play option. He's been around for awhile, but he's just 24 so there is room for growth, and he showed improvement last season, his first in Colorado, giving reason for hope. His peripherals looked very good the first couple months, but he broke his hand in June and missed a couple months before returning in August and posting rather pedestrian numbers. His overall numbers weren't bad -- a 1.37 WHIP, with a 4.33 ERA, and 90 strikeouts in about 127 innings -- but I think he can improve on those, and could significantly improve if his fantasy owner can judiciously spot his starts in the rotation.
Julio Urias (LAD) - This series is designed to uncover possible contributors to a fantasy team's 2015 season, either right from Opening Day, or at some point as the season progresses. Therefore it could seem a bit odd to have an 18-year-old southpaw who hasn't pitched above High-A ball listed. Trust me, Urias belongs here. He already has a plus fastball, one of the nastiest curves I have seen, and a rapidly improving change that is already adequate and could be another plus pitch. He completely overwhelmed his competition at age 17 and he got better as the season moved forward. The Dodgers would surely like to give him at least another full year in the minors, but Hyun-Jin Ryu is experiencing shoulder problems again, and Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson aren't known for their durability. I have been tracking pitchers for a lot of years, and few teenagers have displayed the advanced development of Urias. I'm not sure the Dodgers will be able to keep the leash on very long. Get this guy as soon as the opportunity presents itself.
The Endgame Odyssey
Here we'll cover some notes and observations on the closer scenarios across baseball. For the last six weeks, the focus has been on the division featured in arms to watch.
The best closer in the division (and perhaps the best in the game), Kenley Jansen had foot surgery and will open the season on the DL for the Dodgers. He's progressing well, and barring any setbacks he should be ready by mid-April, so a broad collection of caddies -- Joel Peralta, Dustin McGowan, Sergio Santos, J.P. Howell et al -- may or may not be worth a pickup. ... There's even more intrigue in Colorado where the role will go to LaTroy Hawkins. However, Hawkins is beyond his prime (OK, that's generous), so expect to see Adam Ottavino grab the gig at some point, or maybe even the forgotten Rex Brothers. Monitor this situation closely. ... The Padres have the generally capable Joaquin Benoit, but he is probably better suited to a set-up role (and may become trade bait at some point), so they might turn to Kevin Quackenbush. I'm not totally sold on him with his pedestrian stuff, but he's first in line. They wouldn't consider Jose Valverde, would they? ... The Diamondbacks nabbed Addison Reed from the White Sox last year, and he rode a roller coaster with frequent home run fireworks, but he's their best option and has the ceiling to be a good one if he cuts down on the mistakes. His backup is Brad Ziegler, but he's better suited to a righty specialist role. Lastly, Santiago Casilla is now the man in San Francisco which allows their premier setup guy, Sergio Romo, to stay in his preferred eighth-inning role.
