Mound Musings: The Do No Harm Strategy

The First Rule of a "Do No Harm" Pitching Strategy

Regular readers know these are Bogfella Commandments. Always take upside over proven mediocrity (or worse), and do everything possible to avoid adding an armed time bomb to your fantasy staff. A bad pitcher can be a huge anchor to drag around. How many outings by a fill-in starter providing a line of three-plus innings with a dozen base runners and seven earned runs allowed does it take to make you forget how good Clayton Kershaw is? Hey, you can always look on the bright side, even though he didn't last long enough to qualify for a win, he did get you one strikeout! That pitcher did a LOT of harm.

The worst part of this strategy is the fact that it is becoming more and more important. While I have never been a huge follower of all the most-likely-to-succumb-to-injury prophecies put forward the last few years -- basically labeling one pitcher as higher risk than another -- injuries to pitchers have become so commonplace that it is necessary for successful fantasy owners to develop contingency plans to compensate for lost members of their pitching staffs. Obviously, a team will have little hope of replacing someone like Kershaw should he go down, but a shrewd owner can avoid catastrophe when a relatively important rotation member heads for the disabled list, even if it is for an extended period.

In case you haven't noticed, the number of starting pitchers capable of helping a fantasy team is limited. There are far more starters out there who will hurt rather than help. With the "Do No Harm" strategy, those are to be avoided as much as possible. It sounds pretty simple, but far too often, an injured starting pitcher sends an owner scrambling to the waiver wire to see what other starters might be available. The ones who get the most attention are those with a history of at least marginal success, even if that success could almost be considered ancient history, recent arrivals who may have had a seemingly strong debut, or pitchers who have enjoyed a brief run of competent numbers despite never having shown an ability to sustain such a run. Danger lurks here.

So, if the majority of the available starters are actually incendiary devices, where can you find a replacement for your injured pitcher? There are likely at least a few arms with some hope of at least not hurting your team, even if they won't help a great deal, but in deeper leagues there may not be many. Look for those first and do your homework. Is that new arrival likely to maintain a reasonable level of competence? Maybe the best option is a generally ignored veteran who churns out modest numbers fairly consistently. However, if no starter stands out, you may find help in the bullpen. Non-closers have been somewhat ignored for many years in most leagues that don't use holds as a scoring category. With the injury plague of recent years, their day may have arrived.

A reliever probably won't have an opportunity to collect as many wins as a lower-tier starting pitcher, but an ineffective starter usually doesn't actually collect many wins. Further, a reliever with a higher strikeout rate may generate at least as many whiffs while giving you significantly better WHIP and ERA numbers to actually boost those categories rather than destroying them. Finally, these more effective relievers might be tabbed to close and provide you with saves (or a valuable trading commodity) if the closer on their team falters or falls to injury. Let's look at some relievers to keep an eye on.

Relief Pitchers to Consider

Dellin Betances (Yankees) - He led all full-time relief pitchers in strikeouts last season with 135 in just 90 innings while posting a microscopic WHIP (0.78) and ERA (1.40), collecting five wins. He is still in the hunt for the closer's job, which would take him off this list, and he has experienced a worrisome drop in velocity this spring, but if he comes out healthy and isn't closing, he could be a huge asset as a compliment to your starting staff.

Yusmeiro Petit (Giants) - Petit split time between starting and relieving but logged 133 strikeouts in 117 innings. He also picked up five wins and sported a useful 1.01 WHIP with a modest 3.69 ERA. He's not likely to find saves, but as the Giant's swingman he could find himself taking a turn every five days if their rotation suffers injuries during the season.

Wade Davis (Royals) - He really blossomed as a reliever with the Royals and seems to have found a home in their bullpen. He picked up nine wins and 109 strikeouts despite pitching just 72 innings, and his 0.85 WHIP and 1.00 ERA are all better than you could expect from a waiver-wire starter. Davis also logged three saves when closer Greg Holland wasn't available, so you could get a little bonus value if other owners ignore him on draft day.

Brad Boxberger (Rays) - Boxberger could begin the season closing with regular closer Jake McGee expected to begin the season on the disabled list. That means he will probably be on a roster to start the year, but when McGee returns, his owner might look to deal him away. I'm not totally convinced he can repeat his 2014 numbers, but anything close to an 0.85 WHIP and a 2.37 ERA with more than 100 strikeouts could be a nice add.

Andrew Miller (Yankees) - Miller is the other half of the Betances equation. He may be slotted into the closer's role if Betances is aimed at another role. He probably doesn't have the innings potential of Betances being left-handed, but he did post an 0.80 WHIP and 2.02 ERA over 62 innings with 103 punchouts, so he profiles as a relief boost for a fantasy team if he isn't closing. I don't anticipate the Yankees splitting the end-game responsibilities, so one of them should fit.

Will Smith (Brewers) - Walks killed his WHIP last season (1.41), but he is capable of considerably better. He also contributed 86 strikeouts in 66 innings and could see a boost with a few more innings this season. Further, with Francisco Rodriguez signing on late to close again and Jonathan Broxton being a weak option, Smith could factor into the saves picture.

Evan Marshall (Diamondbacks) - He pitched just 49 innings in the major leagues last season (he spent time at Triple-A), but he locked down 54 strikeouts, and I expect those numbers to increase this season. He could even figure into the saves scenario if Addison Reed struggles, so his value could expand as the season progresses. Keep an eye on him.

Ken Giles (Phillies) - Giles has a cannon and likely will become the closer at some point, but as long as Jonathan Papelbon is in town, he has to be patient. With one of the best arms this side of Aroldis Chapman, he can ring up a lot of strikeouts if he gets many innings (64 in just 46 innings last year) and is worth a small investment whether he is closing or not.

Tom Wilhelmsen (Mariners) - The Mariners like to use their former closer for multiple innings, which could potentially put him in line for a few more wins to go with a solid strikeout rate and useful WHIP and ERA. Fernando Rodney has a long leash as the closer, but he can be erratic at times so Wilhelmsen could potentially see some saves as well.

Kevin Gausman (Orioles) - I saved my favorite name on this list for last. Gausman is one of the premier starting pitching prospects in the game but is expected to be used out of the bullpen to begin the season as a way to monitor his workload (think Chris Sale a few years ago). He will almost assuredly be in the rotation by midseason, and if he does begin in the bullpen, grab him and wait patiently for your reward.

Note, I don't chase wins with these relievers. That is too unpredictable, and a reliever who notches nine wins one season might pitch just as well the next year and only get three wins. If you need help on the hill during the season, look at the available starting pitchers with a critical eye, assess who might be coming up in the immediate future with a lot of upside and if you find both lists wanting, take a look at the bullpens.

The Endgame Odyssey

Things are beginning to jell in the bullpens of most teams. The Astros have even named a closer in former elite setup man, Luke Gregerson. Chad Qualls had an awful spring and Pat Neshek remains vulnerable to lefty swingers. ... Speaking of horrible springs, LaTroy Hawkins comes to mind immediately. Hawkins has age working against him, so I make the over/under on him being replaced by Adam Ottavino as Rockies closer about the first of May. ... I think Joe Nathan has a somewhat longer leash in Detroit, but he also struggled this spring and has Joakim Soria waiting in the wings. ... One scenario that demands attention as the year begins is how Dellin Betances will come into the season. His velocity has experienced a sharp decline and that has to be worrisome. Betances owners may need to handcuff with Andrew Miller until things sort out. ... In Boston, the fragile Koji Uehara is not healthy, so Edward Mujica is expected to open the year as the closer. ... There are a few other closers who won't be available from day one, including guys like Kenley Jansen, Jake McGee and Sean Doolittle, but I think each will be given the chance to handle the role as soon as they are healthy. Until they are ready, Joel Peralta, Brad Boxberger and Tyler Clippard get a temporary boost.