Regan's Rumblings: Will the Slow Starters Recover?

Sure, we can say that "it's still early" all we want, but you can often glean a lot of information from the season's first month. As just one of many examples last year, Allen Craig was coming off a .315/.373/.457 season with the Cardinals. In April 2014, Craig batted just .229/.287/.381 in 105 at-bats and ultimately ended the year with a paltry .215/.279/.315 mark. For the most part, I give the benefit of the doubt to players with proven track records and a poor first week of the year, but sometimes I'll see something in the numbers or with my own observations that gives me pause. Here is what I expect from a few players off to slow starts.

Catcher

Mike Zunino, SEA - I was driving the Zunino bandwagon after the 2012 No. 3 overall draft pick hit a healthy .352/.435/.852 this spring with seven walks and seven home runs, a number eclipsed only by Kris Bryant. Zunino talked about "improving his swing path to right center" and trying to be more selective at the plate -- and I was sold. I ended up with the Seattle backstop in multiple leagues. So, of course, he goes 3-for-21 with nine strikeouts and no extra-base hits to start the season. I'm not too worried about the lack of power given that 50.6 percent of Zunino's hits last year went for extra bases, but the strikeouts are quite concerning given that he fanned in 33.2 percent of his plate appearances last year and that mark is already up in 2015. I'll be stubborn and point to small sample sizes and such, but I might have been wrong.

First Base

Ryan Zimmerman, WAS - Zimmerman went deep Monday, but that still left him at .154/.267/.385 through his first 30 plate appearances. In his age 30 season, it's quite possible that Zimmerman has already peaked. After posting OPS totals of .888 and .899 in 2009-2010, Zimmerman has dealt with a number of injuries and is coming off his lowest OPS (.791 in 2014) since the 2011 season. Zimmerman has always fanned in less than 20 percent of his plate appearances, but he's up to 26.7 percent this year in limited action. We know his BABIP won't remain at .125, so this is clearly just a slow start, but with his shoulder forcing a move to first base, it's possible we're now looking at a .280-15-70 hitter rather than one who could post multiple .300-30-100 seasons.

Second Base

Rougned Odor, TEX - Odor hit an encouraging .318/.348/.477 this spring and remains the team's long-term solution at second base, but his 4-for-25 start reminds us he's still 21. Even this spring, Odor walked just twice in 47 plate appearances (4.3 percent) after posting a 4.1 BB% last year, so he still has some work do to on his pitch selection. I love the fact that three of his four hits have gone for extra bases, but he's still pretty raw after just 62 games above Single-A prior to being named the Rangers' starting second baseman last year. I can see a poor second half followed by improvement down the stretch, but temper your 2015 expectations.

Shortstop

Wilmer Flores, NYM - I guess anyone's bat looks good next to that of Ruben Tejada, but I hoped for a bit more from Flores to start the year. He hit a so-so .266/.304/.453 this spring, though I would imagine most teams would take a .757 OPS at shortstop. Flores, though, is 4-for-23 with one walk and no RBI, and even more, he's apparently switched to an iron glove in the field, committing three errors. Flores batted a healthy .321/.357/.531 as a 21-year-old in Triple-A in 2013 and .323/.367/.568 there last year, but his walk rates have been low (6.6 percent in 2014), and he probably will have to move to a corner infield or outfield position. A sleeper to watch here in deeper leagues is 24-year-old Matt Reynolds, the starting shortstop for Triple-A Las Vegas. Reynolds hit .375/.404/.583 this spring on top of his .333/.385/.479 effort in Triple-A last year. He's worth a look in deeper formats.

Third Base

Adrian Beltre, TEX - The consensus No. 1 fantasy third baseman entering the season, Beltre is off to a .194 start, and while it's too early to panic, Beltre is 36 and in line for an age-related decline soon. In 36 plate appearances, he's yet to draw a walk, but his .188 BABIP also will not remain that low. He may just need a minor tweak in his stance, as Beltre is pounding the ball into the ground at a 54.5 percent clip (versus 41 percent career), and he's swinging at a career-high 45.1 percent (33.3 percent career) outside the strike zone. I'm not too worried, but I can also see his OPS dropping in the low .800 range as opposed to 2014's .880.

Outfield

Adam Eaton, CHW - After he batted .300/.362/.401 last year, it's disappointing to see Eaton batting just .138 through seven games. On the plus side, he's only struck out twice (6.9 K%), and it's a certainty that his .148 BABIP will rise sharply. The lefty-hitting Eaton has historically hit lefties as well or better than right-handers, so a platoon situation shouldn't be in the cards, and after signing a five-year $23 million extension last month, Eaton has plenty of job security. It's safe to say that Eaton isn't losing his job to Emilio Bonafacio. He'll be fine.

Gregory Polanco, PIT - Polanco has opened at .226/.250/.290 through 32 plate appearances, including a 13:1 K:BB, and after having an underwhelming debut a year ago (.235/.307/.343), the luster is starting to wear off a bit. I'm not jumping ship just yet, though. Last year, Polanco's metrics were pretty solid, including a 19.0 K% and 9.6 BB%. His BABIP was just .275, so that should increase this year, but he's clearly needs more time to acclimate to big-league pitching. Not everyone comes in right away and makes a huge impact early in their career. Exercise patience with Polanco. It should pay off.

George Springer, HOU - Maybe I'm in the minority, but I was pretty cautious on Springer coming into the season. Sure, the 30/30 upside is quite enticing, but a 24.6 percent Triple-A strikeout rate and a 33-percent mark in the big leagues are pretty disturbing numbers. He's drawn plenty of walks, so is this a mini Mike Trout or is it a Rob Deer with wheels? The truth, of course, lies somewhere in the middle. Springer has fanned in 37.1 percent of his 2015 plate appearances, so not much of a change there so far. It's hard to see him becoming more than a .250 hitter this year with perhaps 25 home runs and 10-15 stolen bases.

Starting Pitcher

Taijuan Walker, SEA - Walker entered Tuesday's start against the Dodgers with three career wins. All three against the Astros. All three IN Houston. Walker continued his failures against the league's other 28 teams, allowing five runs on six hits with four walks in four innings Wednesday against the Dodgers. The outing actually lowered Walker's ERA from 24.30 to 17.18. Walker is still just 22 and is coming off a 2.61 ERA in 38 MLB innings last year, but his FIP was 3.75 and his BB/9 clocked in at 4.3. Walker was long touted as a future No. 1 starter, but I'm not seeing it. A 1.6 HR/9 in Triple-A last year led to a 4.81 ERA and after missing the first three months last year due to a sore shoulder, Walker is showing decreased velocity this year. Whether there is something wrong physically remains to be seen, but either way, I hesitate to recommend a buy low.

Masahiro Tanaka, NYM - The 10 strikeouts in nine innings are nice, but the 7.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP? Not so much. Tanaka has lost some velocity over last year (.7 mph to be exact), and his 5.0 BB/9, while the sample size is quite low, is very concerning given he had a 1.4 mark in that area in 2014. As you recall, Tanaka was diagnosed with a torn UCL last July, a condition that usually results in Tommy John surgery. He and the Yankees elected to rehab the elbow, but ask Chad Billingsley and others how that story ends. I didn't touch Tanaka in any of my 2015 drafts, and I'm not going there now. The Yankees certainly need him healthy to compete this year, but, while I hope I'm wrong, don't expect much out of him this year.

Jered Weaver, LAA - If you sort all starting pitchers by fastball velocity, Yordano Ventura leads the pack at 96.1 mph followed by the likes of Matt Harvey and Gerrit Cole a few ticks behind. If you sort the other direction, knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, not surprisingly, has the slowest fastball at a tortoise-like 80.5 mph, but next on that list is Weaver at a mere 83.3 mph. As pitchers like Greg Maddux proved, it's not all about speed, but for Weaver, this is a full 3 mph drop over last year. The net result has been an 8.71 ERA in two starts and even his once-pinpoint control is evaporating:

BB/9 by Year

2013 - 2.2
2014 - 2.7
2015 - 3.5

His .341 BABIP is 61 points above his career mark, so maybe that improves, but when a pitcher is basically lobbing the ball up there, of course hitters are going to square it up with frequency, thus resulting in more sharply hit balls and more base hits. Weaver owners should be concered.

Relief Pitcher

LaTroy Hawkins, COL - I was 95 percent certain that Hawkins would surrender the closer job to Adam Ottavino at some point this year. I just didn't expect it to happen by mid-April. Hawkins is 42 and coming off a season in which his K/9 was a minuscule 5.3. Perhaps he'll turn things around given that his K:BB in 4.2 innings is a solid 4:1, but I just don't see the Rockies turning back to Hawkins as their closer any time soon. Last year's 23 saves were his most since 2004, but if he saves five games this season it will be a surprise. You probably knew this was coming, so hopefully Ottavino is also on your roster.

Steve Cishek, MIA - With a 33.75 ERA through two appearances, it's been a rocky start for Cishek and his fantasy owners. He's yet to record a save after notching 39 last year and 34 the year prior. With an 11.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 last year, Cishek appeared poised for another solid year in 2015, but his velocity is way down (2 mph), and he's been wild. Cishek has had three consecutive solid seasons prior to 2015, so we should give him the benefit of the doubt, but it would be wise to keep an eye on his velocity. It would be even wiser in deeper formats to grab A.J. Ramos as a fallback option.