Minor League Barometer: Lost and Found

The prospect push to the majors isn't all sunshine and rainbows. Sure, the Kris Bryant's and Mike Trout's of the world find little resistance and make seamless transitions to the bigs. However, for most other prospects, there are peaks and valleys. In fact, just one bad season can take a prospect from "can't-miss" to the garbage bin in one fell swoop. It is important to note that player development is not, and should not be viewed as, a linear process. Organizations know this, but sometimes in the fantasy realm, it is more difficult to remember.

Already this season we have seen the bounce back of Rockies' shortstop phenom Trevor Story, who had two fairly poor seasons and was written off by most pundits. Still just 22, Story has rebounded in a big way, hitting .361 with five home runs, 24 RBI and six steals through 30 games at Double-A. How about another 22-year-old, Bubba Starling? A first-round pick in 2011 by the Royals, Starling decided to play baseball rather than become the starting quarterback for the University of Nebraska. After a few terrible seasons, it looked like Bubba made the wrong choice, and he was all but forgotten. Yet he has risen from the ashes to hit .316 with five home runs, 20 RBI and three stolen bases in 27 games at Double-A.

Still another former hot-shot prospect, New York Yankees outfielder Slade Heathcott, has returned to prominence. The 24-year-old battled injuries, inconsistency and off-field issues, but is hitting .325 with 15 RBI and five steals through 29 games at Triple-A. He could be first in line for a promotion if Carlos Beltran or Chris Young succumb to injury. A fast-riser skyrocketing back up the prospect boards, Philadelphia Phillies speedster Roman Quinn has overcome a bevy of leg injuries from 2014.

The moral of the story? Don't simply write off a prospect because of a bad outing, a poor month or even an abysmal season. It's a process, and patience can pay dividends down the road. Let's look at some other prospects who once were lost but now are found.

UPGRADE

Maikel Franco, 3B, PHI - The writing is on the wall in Philadelphia with the recent demotion of Cody Asche. Franco will be called up shortly, and it won't be so he can ride the pine. Franco was penciled in to start at third last season for the Phils, but began the season so poorly that he hardly got the chance. He has flipped the script in 2015, and should be starting at the hot corner imminently. The 22-year-old is batting .341 with four homers, 19 RBI and two thefts in 30 games at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Over his last 10 games, Franco has been even better, smashing three home runs and knocking in eight runs en route to a .390 average. Viewed as a power prospect, it will be interesting to see if Franco's lack of patience at the dish will hurt his production in the bigs. While he does not strike out a ton, he also does not draw many free passes. Franco has five walks as compared to 24 strikeouts in 129 at-bats this season. He fanned 13 times while drawing just one walk in 56 at-bats in a cup of coffee with the big club last September. Franco should be more prepared this time around, though a zebra can't change its stripes. Ready or not, the Maikel Franco era is upon us in the City of Brotherly Love.

Lance McCullers, P, HOU – McCullers has a live arm but really didn't know where the ball was going last season. He struck out 115 batters in just 97 innings, but also issued 56 walks over that span. He also yielded less grounders, which led to more home runs, a particularly troublesome proposition in the hitter-friendly California League. Opposing batters also hit .255 against him, the highest BAA since entering the minors. All signs pointed to McCullers being unable to locate consistently, resulting in a bloated 5.47 ERA. He has started off the 2015 season on a much better note, though. Opposing hitters are batting a mere .167 against him at Double-A. His walks are also slightly down, though he has still issued 11 free passes in five games. However, a 0.72 ERA combined with 37 strikeouts in 25 innings means that the 21-year-old McCullers is headed in the right direction.

Jose De Leon, P, LAD - The type of numbers De Leon is putting up should be reserved for video games. He was just a 23rd round selection in the 2013 draft, but the days of anonymity should be over for the 22-year-old. After spending the better part of a year at the Rookie Level, he breezed through four starts at Low-A last season with 42 strikeouts in four starts. Yes, you read that correctly. He has been bumped up a level to begin the 2015 season, with little change in his dominance. Through 32 innings with High-A Rancho Cucamonga, in a hitter-friendly league, De Leon has 50 strikeouts and only six walks. His ERA sits at 1.69. De Leon throws hard, but his changeup has become a superb wipeout pitch, and his slider is emerging as well. De Leon relies on a bit of a deceptive, unorthodox delivery as well. The sample size is still small, and it remains to be seen if his mechanics will eventually get the better of him, but the numbers are simply eye-popping at this juncture.

Billy McKinney, OF, CHC - It seems as though every week we talk about another Cubs prospect, just another indication of the outstanding job that Theo Epstein and company have done in rebuilding this squad from the farm system up. Not only did Epstein snag uber-prospect Addison Russell from the A's in the Jeff Samardzija deal last season, but he got Oakland to throw in the versatile McKinney as well. McKinney has an exceptional eye at the dish. He walked 61 times at High-A as a 19-year-old last season, and thus far this season has more walks (17) than strikeouts (13). He is batting .340/.432/.544 through 29 games at the same level. He has also been mighty productive in the early going, hitting four home runs and knocking in 25 runs over that span. The Cubs expect his power to only improve as he matures. McKinney can even swipe a few bags. However, his advanced approach at the plate will ultimately be his calling card.

CHECK STATUS

Rafael Devers, 3B, BOS – Devers won't turn 19 until after the season, yet he's more than holding his own at Low-A. The third-baseman has been particularly hot of late, hitting .364 with two home runs and eight RBI over his last 10 contests. As with most young hitters, though, Devers is not very patient at the plate. In 26 games, Devers has struck out 21 times while drawing just two walks. Still, if he continues hitting .324, the Red Sox certainly won't mind the strikeouts. Devers will not see the big leagues for at least a few seasons, with the hopes that his power stroke will develop during that time period as well. Nevertheless, Devers is a player to file away due to his ability to handle the bat.

Travis Jankowski, OF, SD - Jankowski fits the profile of a player like Jose Peraza in terms of what he brings to the table. Although that is certainly high praise, Jankowski's hit tool is certainly not up to par with Peraza's. However, Jankowski is a speedster who has the ability to get on base. Through 30 games at Double-A San Antonio, the 23-year-old is slashing .345/.433/.440 with 13 stolen bases. While Jankowski will never hit for much power (he just slugged his first home run in almost two years this week), he does have an excellent eye at the dish. Jankowski has tallied more walks (18) than strikeouts (14). The lack of power kills some of his prospect buzz, and the batting average is likely to come down a bit. Still, he looks healthy after missing almost all of last season with a broken wrist, and any player with the ability so steal 50-plus bases is worth keeping on your radar.

A.J. Reed, 1B, HOU - College Baseball's Player of the Year in 2014 isn't finding the transition to pro ball to be too difficult. The former Kentucky Wildcat has bashed eight home runs and knocked home 25 runs in 30 games at High-A. Reed has also shown patience at the dish, drawing 23 walks en route to a .388 OBP. However, it remains to be seen if he can hit for average at the higher levels, and he will continue to rack up the strikeouts. The second round pick of the Astros should end up being a productive player who can hit the ball out of the yard, but his ceiling could be limited.

Tyler Wagner, P, MIL – Wagner was a closer in college, but the Brewers have used him almost exclusively as a starter. Still, some scouts continue to view him as a reliever despite his success in the rotation. Wagner posted a minuscule 1.86 ERA in 150 innings last season at High-A, as opposing batters hit just .221 against him. He has continued to shine at Double-A Biloxi through six starts, posting a 1.50 ERA with 28 strikeouts. Wagner does not have dominant strikeout stuff, though, and he projects more as an innings eater than a rotation anchor. His success is derived from keeping the ball down in the zone with a heavy sinker. His ground ball ratios have been off the charts since entering the minors in 2012. As a result, he won't be a future ace, but Wagner appears to be trending more toward the starting rotation than the bullpen, at least for now.

DOWNGRADE

David Dahl, OF, COL – One of the top hitting prospects in baseball, Dahl has fallen on some hard times in his first stint at Double-A. The toolsy outfielder is batting just .242/.282/.331 through 28 games. Dahl has looked overmatched at times in the batter's box, fanning 26 times while drawing just six walks. Still, Dahl has 11 stolen bases already after stealing 21 bags in 119 games in 2014. Likewise, it is still very early, and Dahl is just 21, making him one of the younger players at this level. As a result, this downgrade is temporary only for Dahl, who should be able to right the ship soon.

D.J. Peterson, 1B/3B, SEA – The same can be said for Peterson, though his start is a tad more disconcerting. The polished college product is already 23 at Double-A and does not have the added speed element of Dahl, despite swiping four bags already this season. Peterson tallied an impressive 31 home runs and 111 RBIs in 123 games between High-A and Double-A last season. However, he has experienced a power outage of sorts, hitting just one dinger in his first 99 at-bats. His slugging percentage is a putrid .323; by contrast, he slugged .552 in 2014. Peterson's average has also taken a nosedive since moving from High-A, including hitting just .242 while striking out 26 times thus far this year. Once again, the sample size is small, and Peterson should work his way out of the doldrums. The lack of power is bothersome, though.

Garin Cecchini, 3B, BOS – There's a lot to like in the Boston farm system. Unfortunately, Cecchini's start is not among those items. The 24-year-old is hitting an abysmal .180 through 22 games. He has been punched out 28 times, while drawing just three walks during that timeframe. Cecchini enjoyed a cup of coffee with the big club last September, and looked like a serviceable player with decent speed and occasional pop. However, he has looked absolutely lost at the plate to begin the 2015 campaign. In addition, it appears as though his 2012 campaign in which he stole 51 bases was a mirage. He hasn't swiped more than 23 bags in a season since that time. With a career-high eight home runs as well, there are better minor leaguers out there to roster in terms of future fantasy prowess.

Robert Stephenson, P, CIN – The Double-A wall continues to befuddle Stephenson, who has now been toiling at this level since 2013. He entered Double-A that season as a hyped 20-year-old future ace of the Reds. He is a 22-year-old hurler with a 6.85 ERA through five starts for the Wahoos. Wildness has once again been Stephenson's undoing, as the hard-throwing righty has walked 18 batters in 23.2 innings. Perhaps even more curiously, opposing batters are hitting .277 against Stephenson. Even in a mediocre 2014 campaign, opposing batters still hit just .224 against Stephenson. The extra baserunners have unsurprisingly been coming back to haunt him. Stephenson has also given up three home runs already, which isn't helping the cause. Until Stephenson can harness his command and gain control, he will remain at risk of sliding down the prospect charts, despite the strikeout potential.