Regan's Rumblings: Will the Hot Starts Continue?

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Updated on May 29, 2015 3:36PM EST

Last week in this space I discussed a handful of players off to slow starts and attempted to look a little further to see whether a turnaround was in the cards. We'll take a similar approach this week to a number of players off to hot starts. To begin, no one is hotter than ...

Bryce Harper, OF, WAS

For all the (deserved) hype being directed the way of Kris Bryant, Harper is actually a year younger and has already played in 366 more big-league games than the Chicago wunderkind. After batting .270/.340/.477 as a 19-year-old rookie in 2012, Harper has been somewhat of a disappointment, averaging just 109 games from 2013-2014 and seemingly getting a lot of backlash from fans due to his supposed attitude. SI cover boy at 16, showboat, overrated, we heard it all, but now in his age 22 season, Harper is showing us why he was on the cover at such a young age.

• .331/.470/.745
• Tied for the MLB lead in HR with 18 (Nelson Cruz)
• MLB RBI leader with 43
• MLB leader in OBP. SLG, OPS and walks

From a fantasy perspective, I'd probably still take Mike Trout No. 1 overall, but I wouldn't hesitate to pluck Harper at No. 2. Harper has already said his biggest goal for 2015 is to avoid injury, so hopefully no more collisions with outfield walls. The only thing that would seemingly stop him is a stint on the DL. If I had to predict final numbers, I guess I'd hedge a bit and say .320/.430/.640 with 42 home runs, 120 RBI and a handful of steals.

Alex Rodriguez, 3B/DH, NYY

Arod has cooled off a little since a hot start, but at .270/.371/.547, he's far surpassed everyone's expectations, yours, mind, the Yankees and perhaps even his own. His .277 ISO is his highest mark since the 2007 season, and he's striking out a reasonable 22.9 percent of the time while walking at a 12.6 percent clip. Rodriguez's BABIP is a reasonable .306, and the only real blemish is his inability this year to hit lefties (.205/.367/.462 in 39 at-bats). The .205 probably climbs as the season progresses given that in his last full year in 2012, Arod hit southpaws to the tune of .308/.410/.514. Look, you don't have to like the guy, but this is truly a generational type talent. At 40 and having been idle for a year, to come back and perform at this level takes a special type of player. Arod has played 37 of his 43 games at DH, and if the Yankees continue to slot him there most days and give him the occasional day off, there's no reason he can't hit .270 with 25 home runs this year.

Stephen Vogt, C, OAK

Vogt is starting to look like the next Josh Donaldson for GM Billy Beane, so he's probably already looking to sign him to an extension and then deal him for more prospects. Vogt is batting a surprising .313/.413/.595 in 131 at-bats. The key for him as been his improved ability hit southpaws, as the left-hitting Vogt is batting .280 in 25 at-bats against them this year versus .211 in 57 at-bats prior to 2015. He's also drawing walks at a 15 percent clip (5.6 percent last year). Remember, Vogt was hitting .350 through two months last year before getting hurt and then having a poor second half while playing injured. Offseason foot surgery brought Vogt into April 100 percent healthy, and so far so good. Injury is the only concern with Vogt, as 38 of his 40 games have come at catcher this year. DH Billy Butler is batting a modest .267/.317/.691, so letting Vogt DH on occasion while Josh Phegley catches wouldn't be a bad idea. Vogt's 21.7 percent HR/FB rate probably isn't sustainable, so figure he finishes with somewhere in the range of 22 HR and batting in the .300 range. This isn't some two-month fluke, as witnessed by his first two months last year and his recent Triple-A numbers.

Brandon Crawford, SS, SF

Crawford has had some big hits as a Giants, but his overall performance at the dish has been far outweighed by his outstanding work in the field. This year, though, Crawford looks to be putting it all together, batting a surprising .299/.379/.506 with six home runs and 25 RBI. He's actually walking a bit less this year (8.6 BB%) than last (10.5), though he's also shaved his K% five full points to 17.8. He's leading all shortstops with a 2.1 wins above replacement (WAR), with the next closest shortstop (Jhonny Peralta and yes, Freddy Galvis) clocking in at 1.3. It's really an incredible leap forward, as if you put together Crawford's best slash numbers from 2012-2014, you get a line of .248/.324/.389. The last two numbers came from last season, so there was a step forward then (small one), but nothing like this could have been anticipated.

There's no way this continues right? The case against:

• Hitting more ground balls than last year - 45.1 percent vs. 37.9
• Spike in HR/FB rate from 6.6 percent career to 14.6
• Career-high 13.7 percent swinging strike rate
• .342 BABIP is well above career rates
• Chasing more balls outside the zone than ever
• Four of seven homers were "just enough," meaning they barely cleared the wall, according to Hittrackeronline.com

It's possible that some of the increased power is real, as he did take a step forward last year, but I'll be surprised if Crawford hits more than .265 the rest of the way. This looks to be pretty flukish.

Michael Pineda, SP, NYY

Pineda has had some good runs when healthy, as last year's 1.89 ERA in 13 starts indicates, but from 2012-2014, Pineda made a grand total of 13 big-league starts, all last year. Can he be relied upon to stay healthy now? Who knows really, but for a guy with a history of back and shoulder issues who is 6-foot-7 and checks in well over 250, there's certainly that risk. Where Pineda once averaged 94.7 mph with this fastball (2011), he's down to 91.8 mph. What I've seen from him, though, is incredible control (0.7 BB/9) and excellent command of his fastball and slider. He's also featuring his change more often this year, perhaps indicating that he's becoming more of a pitcher rather than a thrower to use that cliche.

After improving to 6-2 via 6.1 one-run innings on Wednesday, Pineda now has a 3.36 ERA and 2.52 xFIP, so all indications point to his actually improving his results to date. It's not going to be easy maintaining a 0.7 BB/9, but hey, in 2005, Carlos Silva walked just NINE batters in 188.1 innings for a 0.4 BB/9, so it's possible. Pineda has also improved his GB% from 39.1 to 53.2 year over year. As long as he can stay healthy, he should be effective. I just don't know that I trust him to do so.

Jason Hammel, SP, CHC

When he's not in the unfriendly confines of Coors Field, Hammel has shown he's a pretty good pitcher. This year, Hammel has a 2.98 ERA and excellent 58:7 K:BB in 60.1 innings, though he's been a bit unlucky considering his 3-2 record. At 32, Hammel should in theory be approaching the back-end of his prime, but he's just getting better:

YEAR	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
2013	6.1	3.1	1.4
2014	8.1	2.3	1.2
2015	8.7	1.0	0.9

Maybe Hammel doesn't maintain his .272 BABIP, but then again, that mark was .279 last year, so it's not out of the question. He's still throwing about the same in terms of velocity as he always had, and sure he's generating a few more swings-and-misses (10.3 SwStr% vs. 9.7 last year), but all indications are that the primary reason for his improvement is simply better control. I don't see a lot of downside, so Hammel seems safe to project an ERA in the low 3.00s.

Mike Bolsinger, SP, LAD

So far at least, Bolsinger is looking like Exhibit A in relation to the theory that to find a decent starting pitcher off the scrap heap, a team should sign as many seemingly mediocre pitchers as possible with the hope one turns out to be a diamond in the rough. Through four starts covering 25.1 innings, Bolsinger has allowed just two runs with a 22:6 K:BB. His first taste of big-league action came last year with Arizona, and that season, Bolsinger posted a 5.50 ERA and 1.59 WHIP while allowing seven homers in just 52.1 innings. This year he's surrendered just one long ball. Bolsinger averages just 86.3 mph with his fastball, so command and control are crucial. I've seen most of his starts and his command has been excellent, and his BB/9 is a solid 2.1.

Despite the lack of velocity, Bolsinger has an 8.4 K/9 in 483.2 minor league innings to go with a 3.2 BB/9. That many strikeouts for a fastball hovering in the mid-80s indicates Bolsinger has always had pretty good command, and he'll need to continue that to avoid getting shelled. About Bolsinger, we wrote this in our preseason magazine: "It would take a lot of unforeseen changes to give Bolsinger any real measure of fantasy value in even the deepest of formats." Well, losing 40 percent of the projected rotation has given Bolsinger a shot at locking down a job for the year. Things could certainly go south for the 27-year old, but ride him while he's hot.

Shelby Miller, SP, ATL

A former top prospect, Miller is in his third full season, and with a 1.50 ERA through his first nine starts, it looks like a breakout campaign for the 24-year old. He's yet to allow more than two runs in a start, and each of his last seven starts have been of the quality start variety, so consistency is there pretty much for the first time in his career. That said, even though two of his last three starts were shutouts, it's still difficult to conclude that Miller has been "dominant." A 7.2 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 are solid ratios, but hardly dominant. In addition, it's likely his .214 BABIP is going to regress soon, though that should be mitigated by his improved groundball tendencies:

2014 GB%: 39.9
2015 GB%: 50.3

Adding a solid glove at third base in Juan Uribe won't hurt either. Miller is generating a few more swings-and-misses with a slightly below average 9.4 percent swinging strike rate, and he's inducing hitters to chase a few more balls out of the zone. The velocity is stable over last year, but the main difference appears to be in his approach to hitters. Miller is throwing a lot more sinkers and cutters this year, which explains the spike in ground balls, and the new approach is working. We'll see his BABIP rise certainly, but more ground balls should equal fewer home runs, and given his HR/9 was above 1.0 in each of the previous two years (.45 now), that can only help. It's also possible that at age 24, Miller has more growth as a pitcher left, and that could help offset the coming regression.

Shawn Tolleson, RP, TEX

After suffering back and hip injuries, Tolleson was waived in winter 2013 by the Dodgers and promptly claimed by the Rangers. Good move by Texas. Tolleson emerged as an excellent setup man last year, posting a 2.76 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. With Neftali Feliz struggling, Tolleson has now emerged as the Texas closer, and his numbers have gone to a new level: 2.82 ERA, 12.1 K/9, 1.6 BB/9. A .340 BABIP has led to his ERA being higher than it probably should, but that should come down, and given he's 5-for-5 in save opportunities, Tolleson looks to be taking the closer job and running with it. I followed Tolleson's career closely as he came up through the Dodgers organization, so this really doesn't surprise me all that much. I could see him as a top-five closer the rest of the way.