This article is part of our The Long Game series.
While every keeper and dynasty league owner is always on the hunt for elite prospects to form the core of a roster that can put together a multi-title run (and goodness knows we've seen enough of them get called up this season), newly debuted prospects aren't the only assets that can return significant value. A staple of just about every successful keeper roster is the surprise stud, a player who got picked up for a couple bucks in the auction end game, or with a wee FAAB bid, and who suddenly turned into an All-Star caliber player.
While raking in production in the short term from such players can take you to the top of the standings, in dynasty formats you always have to keep one eye on the future, and knowing when it's time to cash in that cheap stud, and when you can start to plan next year's roster around them, is an absolutely vital skill. Let's look at some of this year's surprises, and see whether you should trade them at peak value, or whether you can pencil them in to that 2016 roster you've been doodling around with on a scrap piece of paper.
Michael Bolsinger, P, LAD - Before the season started, I wrote a blog post putting forward the theory that the best place to looking for surprise pitching performances would be among PCL starters who'd pitched in hitters' parks the year before. My theory was that while these pitchers may not have
While every keeper and dynasty league owner is always on the hunt for elite prospects to form the core of a roster that can put together a multi-title run (and goodness knows we've seen enough of them get called up this season), newly debuted prospects aren't the only assets that can return significant value. A staple of just about every successful keeper roster is the surprise stud, a player who got picked up for a couple bucks in the auction end game, or with a wee FAAB bid, and who suddenly turned into an All-Star caliber player.
While raking in production in the short term from such players can take you to the top of the standings, in dynasty formats you always have to keep one eye on the future, and knowing when it's time to cash in that cheap stud, and when you can start to plan next year's roster around them, is an absolutely vital skill. Let's look at some of this year's surprises, and see whether you should trade them at peak value, or whether you can pencil them in to that 2016 roster you've been doodling around with on a scrap piece of paper.
Michael Bolsinger, P, LAD - Before the season started, I wrote a blog post putting forward the theory that the best place to looking for surprise pitching performances would be among PCL starters who'd pitched in hitters' parks the year before. My theory was that while these pitchers may not have put up good numbers in such environments, if they at least held their own they may have built up the necessary mental toughness to survive and even thrive in the majors if they got the chance.
Bolsinger wasn't one of the pitchers I specifically named, but he was on the short list and I'm kicking myself now for not including him, because who doesn't want to look like a genius? A 3.93 ERA and 88:32 K:BB ratio in 91.2 innings at Reno in 2014 has turned into a 2.76 ERA and 59:22 K:BB ratio in 62 innings this season, and he appears to have become a mid-rotation pillar for the Dodgers after getting designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks last November.
Is there good reason to think he can continue pitching this well in 2016, much less the second half of 2015? Well, I'm not entirely sold. His FIP is 3.04, so there's no indication that he's been particularly lucky, and none of the other metrics that would indicate he's pitching over his head are out of line (he has a perfectly normal .301 BABIP, for instance, and his strand rate is only a touch high at 77.8 percent.) Looking deeper, the only area in which he's drastically improved from his Triple-A numbers, or even from last year's ugly stint in Arizona, is his ability to keep the ball in the park. Bolsinger's 0.44 HR/9 would be his best rate since High-A if he can keep it up, and his 7.3 percent HR/FB ratio is less than half what he managed as a Diamondback. Given that his raw stuff is less than dominating, Bolsinger's margin for error is very slim, and as we've seen with Matt Shoemaker this season if he starts leaving a few more balls up in the zone, his ERA could spike in a hurry. If you got him cheap, and someone else in your league is a believer, I wouldn't hesitate to trade Bolsinger for a more proven arm as part of a pennant drive.
Billy Burns, OF, OAK - Let's be honest. Our favorite keeper league players aren't necessarily the best players, but the ones we feel like we stole from our league-mates. Such is the case for me and Billy Burns. My home AL-only league usually holds its auction right near the end of spring training and has a rule that players who have already been sent down can't be bid on, and must be taken in the reserve rounds instead. Burns, if you'll remember, ripped up spring training, but it was a foregone conclusion he would start the year at Triple-A, so no one bothered to bring him up at the auction. The thing was, though, he hadn't actually been officially optioned yet. I waited until the end game, tossed out a $2 freeze-out bid on him that no one could top, and soaked in the groans when everyone realized it was a legal bid.
So now here we are, three months later, and Burns looks like an absolute heist at $2. If his pace holds, he's due to rack up another 50 runs and 25 steals or so the rest of the way, not to mention his .320 batting average. Surely, he's a lock to be an integral part of my stretch run and my 2016 roster, right?
Not so fast. Eno Sarris over at Fangraphs dug into Burns' numbers last week and found some disturbing trends, namely that he was hitting too many fly balls and especially too many infield pop-ups to consider his BABIP truly sustainable. Given that he's also walking less than he did in the minors, if that BABIP tumbles, it takes an awful lot of his value with it, as it would mean not just a lower batting average but fewer opportunities for stolen bases and runs. Also, his defensive metrics haven't been great, so Billy Beane likely isn't viewing him as a long-term solution in center field for the A's.
There are some positives in his profile, namely a .110 ISO that is the highest of his pro career and might be just enough to start getting pitchers to respect him at the plate and not simply pound the zone (in other words, if he keeps stinging doubles and triples like he did Wednesday, it could lead to more walks), but there's a big risk that he fades and becomes little more than a fourth outfielder. The steals will still have value in a deep keeper league, but odds are his value is pretty much at its peak, and that means sell.
Brandon Crawford, SS, SF - This a tricky one. Crawford has showed slow but steady progress as a hitter throughout his major league career, but this year he's exploded, already setting a career high in home runs and on pace to do the same in all three slash categories. The easy answer is to write it off as a small sample fluke and assume he'll go back to being the hitter he seemed to be the last couple seasons, but believe it or not, there's some room for optimism here. His BABIP, for instance, is in line with his career norms while he's hitting fewer infield flies, and making harder contact in general, than in previous years. That points to a real increase in batting average, so while the .300 BA he was flirting with at the end of May is probably unattainable, he could very well settle down and marry that .270 BA he's seeing.
His power spike has been the driver of his increased value in 2015, though, and that's where things really get interesting. When I said he was making harder contact than before, I may have been understating things a bit. Crawford's been crushing it, ranking 11th in the majors in average fly ball distance. The five guys right behind him on that list? Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, Jose Abreu, Freddie Freeman and Bryce Harper. That's good company. On the one hand, Crawford's 15.9 HR/FB% is way above his career norm and may not be sustainable. On the other hand, his profile and batted ball distance indicate he's made some adjustments, and that the power spike is more than just a fluke. In this case, I lean toward the latter explanation. He may not hit 10 home runs in the second half, but I can easily see his "true" skill set being that of a 15-HR guy, and at shortstop, with a batting average that doesn't hurt you, that's incredibly valuable. Keep in mind, too, that once he establishes himself as something of a power hitter, he'll work his way into a better spot in the Giants' batting order, and that means more RBI opportunities as well.
To me, Crawford looks like a keeper. You probably have him at a great salary, there's a reasonable expectation he'll be able to maintain something close to his current pace, and given his previous track record it could be hard to get fair value for him in a trade anyway.
Yovani Gallardo, P, TEX - Is this really happening? After years of being a solid mid-rotation pitcher in Milwaukee, a guy who will get you solid strikeout numbers without hurting your ratios too badly, Gallardo lost his Ks in 2013 and hasn't gotten them back. Instead of becoming a bum, though, he's headed to Texas and put up the best ERA and WHIP of his career, thriving off a ground ball approach. It's a story we've seen many times before, so it's reasonable to assume he can keep it up, right?
Err, not so much.
Two numbers jump out at me with Gallardo. He's been a steady .300-ish BABIP pitcher throughout his career. This year, it's .266. Sooner or later, that number's going to rise. Also, he's been a steady 1.00-ish HR/9 pitcher throughout his career. This year it's 0.62, and while his increased ground-ball rate can somewhat explain that, he had basically the same mix of line drives, ground balls and fly balls last season in Milwaukee. (In fact, his 29.3 FB% in 2015 is actually a tick higher than last season's 29.0). If you think he'll be able to maintain that HR/9 rate, in the Arlington summer ... well, go trade for him.
Gallardo has been great so far this season, but it almost certainly won't last. If you can cash in now for an upgrade, do it.
Stephen Vogt, C, OAK - With two guys on this list, you'd think the A's would be doing better in the standings. Huh. Anyway, Vogt's been ridiculous in 2015, looking like the second coming of ... hmm, who's a good power-hitting left-handed catcher? Darren Daulton? There aren't many comps here. Let's go with Daulton.
While Vogt's first half seems like it came out of nowhere, it really didn't. Check out his line for Triple-A Sacramento in 2013: .324/.398/.547 in 75 games, with 13 home runs and a 38:45 BB:K ratio. Some hits turning into Ks aside, which is to be expected given the step up in competition, that's basically a carbon copy of his 2015 numbers. No, his performance at the plate this season shouldn't have been a big surprise. He was even better in the first half last season, hitting .358/.388/.532 before injuries dragged him down.
And there's the dark lining to this silver cloud. Vogt's a 30-year-old who's had trouble staying healthy throughout his pro career and is catching basically full-time (though the A's have occasionally spelled him at first base or DH). I didn't just pull that Darren Daulton comp out of thin air. Like Vogt, Daulton broke out as a 30-year-old, then had only one more good, healthy season before injuries scuttled the rest of his career. I'd like to think Vogt can avoid a similar fate, but history is not on his side.
There is, however, a potential way out for Vogt. Josh Phegley, his platoon partner, is also enjoying something of a breakout year. If he keeps progressing, and proves he can at least be adequate against right-handed pitching, it might allow the A's to get Vogt out from behind the plate more often and save some wear and tear on him. If he can stay healthy while maintaining his catcher eligibility, Vogt will be a keeper-league gem, and that puts him right on the edge between "hold" and "sell." The risks are great, but so are the potential rewards. If you have him at a cheap salary, I'd be inclined to roll the dice and hang onto Vogt unless you are able to deal him for just about his max value.
