MLB Barometer: Chicks Dig the Long Ball

Though 2014 was essentially the Year of the Pitcher, 11 hitters were able to match or exceed 30 home runs. Nelson Cruz led the way, and was the only hitter able to reach 40. In 2013, there were 12 guys who hit 30-plus, with Chris Davis (53) and Miguel Cabrera (44) leading the way.

Looking at the halfway mark of 2015, we already have 11 sluggers with 20 or more home runs, a handful of whom have a realistic shot at hitting the 40 mark. There are many factors -- including injury and the simple wear and tear of the season - that can and will slow down many of those gunning to keep up their first half pace.

Here's a quick look at the leaders and projected home runs totals for the second half:

Playing out this exercise, you can see that I have accounted for regression for most of the current top 20, with the exception of two of the best young players in the game (Trout, Goldschmidt) and a couple of Blue Jays sluggers (Encarnacion, Bautista) for whom I project better second-half power numbers. I've also projected second-half regressions for the elder statesmen (Rodriguez, Pujols, Texeira) and those who always seem to find a way to get hurt (Cruz, Ramirez).

Finally, let's not forget about those currently not ranked in the top 20 who could hit the 30 HR mark just by doubling their first-half totals: Ryan Braun, Anthony Rizzo and of course, Chris Carter – all of whom have 15. Those with 14 or less who have a shot at 30 include those who have been there before – Jose Abreu, Brandon Moss, Jay Bruce, Pedro Alvarez, Curtis Granderson, Justin Upton, David Ortiz, Joey Votto and those who would be first-timers: Evan Gattis, Mitch Moreland, Buster Posey and Kris Bryant.

Projecting home runs for the second half is a fun exercise if you have time to dig deeper and look into advanced metrics such as HR/FB rate and ISO as well as other data like HR distance and batted ball speed. Send me your HR leaders for the second half and let's compare who is more accurate this October.

RISERS

Adam Lind (1B, MLW) – Lind is on a short list with Mark Teixeira, Kendrys Morales and Joe Mauer as late-round first baseman who have far exceeded their draft day value. Lind was the 23^rd 1B taken in NFBC RotoWire Online leagues with an ADP of 288. Lind spent nine seasons with the Blue Jays, highlighted by a 2009 season where he hit .305 with 35 homers, driving in 114. Back issues and other DL stints have caused Lind to miss about one-third of his games over the last three seasons, helping his bargain status heading into his first year with the Brewers. Though Lind is still a heavy RHP-splits guy (13 HR, .308 vs RHP, 0 HR, .227 vs LHP), he plays almost every day and has had a great first half of the season (.298 BA, .370 OBP, 43 RBI). He had an incredible stretch last week (.360 – 3 HR – 12 RBI – 7 R), and most importantly, Lind's back has yet to bother him this year. Lind has taken a walk in over 10 percent of his plate appearances (a career first) and an ISO above .200 for the first time since that big 2011 season. Hitting in between former stud first round fantasy picks Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez can help Lind continue his fine season and finish the year as a top 10 first baseman. Targeting gems like Lind in later rounds is one of the most fun parts of springtime draft prep.

Gerardo Parra (OF, MLW) – Sticking with the Brewers theme, I was surprised to notice that Parra has been a top 25 overall hitter in the standard five roto categories since the beginning of June. Over that stretch, Parra has driven in only 11, but is hitting .341 with 5 homers, 5 steals and 22 runs scored. Only six players in baseball have scored more runs that Parra since June 1. The versatile Parra has moved around all three outfield positions, but offensively, has settled in nicely, hitting first in the Brewers lineup. A lefty bat like Lind, Parra has been much more effective against right-handed pitching over the last three years while with the Diamondbacks (.283/.332/.760 vs RHP, .214/.286/.547 vs LHP). Parra's .161 ISO is the best of his major league career, and is a maintainable range for the 28-year-old. Parra is hitting .308 through the first half of the year, which is over 30 points higher than his career average (.275) and is partly fueled by a .351 BABIP – some regression is imminent, but perhaps not too big of a dip. The right-handed Khris Davis is back this week, and meshes perfectly in a platoon with Parra, but it creates a real logjam in the outfield. Parra is much better defensively and a better all-around hitter, but Davis provides a power spark that the Brewers certainly would benefit from. Definitely keep Davis' return in mind when considering adding Parra to your fantasy squads, if he is still out there.

Kyle Hendricks (SP, CHC) – There is a lot to like if you dig in here. Hendricks was not popular in March drafts and was considered by many to be candidate for major regression on a 2.46 ERA in 80 IP last year – 5.3 strikeouts-per-nine and high 80s fastball velocity were the major reasons. Hendricks was dropped in plenty of Yahoo! and NFBC leagues in late April and early May after a rough stretch. Despite a handful of blowups, Hendricks has a 1.15 WHIP in 16 starts. He has raised the strikeout-rate (from 15 percent to 20) and has maintained his walk-rate (4.7 percent) on par with last season's 4.6. Looking at Hendricks' FIP and xFIP (3.55, 3.56) compared to his ERA of 4.15, it appears there is room for improvement. Though his last two starts were against weak offenses (Mets and Marlins), he was able to keep them off the scoreboard in 13.1 innings, walking just two batters total. Hendricks and the Cubs head to the south side of Chicago to face the White Sox on Friday, his final start before the All-Star break. He needs to be plucked off free agent lists if still available and is a safer second half investment than Matt Shoemaker and most rookie pitchers, including Vincent Velasquez, Lance McCullers and Eduardo Rodriguez.

Jason Motte (RP, CHC) – It has been a long journey for Motte since undergoing Tommy John surgery in the spring of 2013 following an incredible 2012 season when he saved 42 games for the St. Louis Cardinals. Motte returned to the Cards last year, but pitched just 25 innings as he could never get fully back on track, due in part to a lower back injury. The Cubs agreed to a one-year deal with Motte last winter and he began appearing out of the bullpen in low-leverage situations as he increased his velocity. The Cubs' usage of Motte increased in May as he made 14 appearances, and followed it up with a strong June, collecting three wins as well as three saves. With the Cubs' ninth inning situation in flux due in part to Hector Rondon's inconsistency, Motte has quickly been the most-relied upon member of the bullpen at the end of games, securing another win and save over the past week. Though Rafael Soriano was signed to a minor-league deal with the team last month and Pedro Strop is capable of closing out games as well, Motte may very well be earning a spot as the team's full-time closer. Soriano's skills have deteriorated over the last couple of seasons (there's a reason he remained unsigned for so long). Motte's fastball velocity is up a full tick from last year, and he has maintained a 1.04 WHIP through 30 IP this year (12:2 K:BB ratio over his last 16 innings). Motte has been scooped up in most leagues and should be added where available.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Neil Walker (2B, PIT) – Turned it up a few levels since the 1^st of July (10-for-19 (.526) with 2 HR, 7 RBI) after two rough months (.246, 3 HR, 15 RBI) in May and June. Had big hot and cold swings in his breakout 2014 if you look at his monthly splits, but first half and second half nearly identical across the board.

Cesar Hernandez (MI, PHI) – Speedy 25-year-old has really stepped up with Chase Utley on the DL. Hitting second behind Revere, CHern stole five bags and hit .433 last week. Small sample against LHP (44 at-bats) but hitting .409 against them. Early birds got the waiver wire worm last weekend, and may cost a pretty penny this weekend – especially since he's eligible at 2B, 3B and SS in NFBC.

Scott Kazmir (SP, OAK) – Very consistent, has allowed more than 3 ER just once in 16 starts, though he failed to make it out of the fifth inning in three of them. Cutter and two-seam fastball velocity up slightly from last season, a sparkling 8.4 K/9, though only one outing with double-digit strikeouts (his first of the year).

Kendall Graveman (SP, OAK) – Solid stretch of six consecutive outings with 7 IP or more – no more than 2 ER allowed in any of them. His 4.36 xFIP points to a bit of luck on his 3.16 ERA, which is surprising considering Marcus Semien plays shortstop for the team. His 48 percent groundball-rate may spike even higher. Got to love those Oakland A's starting pitchers.

J.D. Martinez (OF, DET)
Kole Calhoun (OF, LAA)
Jonathan Lucroy (C, MLW)
Clay Buchholz (SP, BOS)
Lance Lynn (SP, STL)

NOT FALLING FOR

Nick Ahmed (SS, ARI) – Defensive whiz may have a bit more pop than advertised (four homers), but don't count on more than a few more from here on out. Hitting .237 and doesn't have much value in 12 and 15 team leagues.

Jorge De La Rosa (SP, COL) – The Rockies' best pitcher, but that isn't saying much. Three consecutive starts with 2 ER or less, but still has a 1.46 WHIP on the year and a 6.81 ERA at home.

FALLERS

Starlin Castro (SS, CHC) – Castro was fully-priced during fantasy draft season boasting an ADP in the top 100 overall (sixth among shortstops). He is currently on a snail's pace offensively, playing some very uninspiring baseball. Managers have had work ethic issues with Castro in the past, but youth and immaturity played a part in the equation. Now 25-years-old, those concerns don't come up as often, but neither have the results. Despite hitting in the middle of a nice lineup, Castro has driven in just 36 runs and has a .295 OBP. The woes on the base paths (3 CS in 7 attempts) continue as well as does the drop in what little power he had (.144 ISO last year, .077 this year). Castro may have a hot streak in him this season, but nevertheless, he looks like a big disappointment for the price this year.

Matt Carpenter (3B, STL) – Carpenter is in the midst of the worst slump of his career, hitting .193 over his last 30 games (since June 1). He got off to an intriguing start power-wise, matching last year's home run total of eight by May 24, but has not hit a ball out of the yard since then. Carpenter's one strength continues to be his plate patience – his 13.4 percent walk-rate matches last year's total. And his sole contribution to fantasy teams are his 45 runs. Carpenter has been pressing over the last month and is currently posting the highest strikeout rate (19 percent) of his career. His on-base percentage (.379) is the biggest reason why he continues to hit second in the lineup, though it is likely that some combination of Kolten Wong – Randal Grichuk – Jason Heyward or even Tommy Pham is utilized in the top two lineup slots for the Cardinals to shake things up. Carpenter needs to shift his approach at the plate to be more line-drive centric in order to get his batting average back above the .290 threshold he was once familiar with.

Adam LaRoche (1B, CHW) – Our patience has worn thin to the point that dropping LaRoche in 12-team leagues has become a realistic option – especially for those who needed a drop to bid on Miguel Sano this weekend. The White Sox gave LaRoche an awful lot of money ($25M for two years) considering he had just turned 35 and carried a batting average over .250 just once in his last four years. LaRoche is hitting .231 this year, and .223 over the last five weeks. He has nine homers thus far, all coming against right-handed pitching, and will be extremely hard-pressed to come close to the 26 he hit last year. Worst of all, especially for a power-laden veteran, LaRoche truly looks lost at the plate. LaRoche's 28.5 percent strikeout rate is the worst of his career, though his HR/FB rate (15 percent) and hard contact rate (37 percent) are on par with last year's numbers. A power binge can come at any time, but it is more than likely that the risk outweighs the benefit as LaRoche will continue to hurt us in the batting average category.

Tyson Ross (SP, SD) – Fantasy owners who treaded carefully with Ross at his full-priced ADP are looking wise as we head into the second half of the season. Not to say that he has been a complete flop. In fact, his strikeout-rate has improved by a full strikeout per inning (over 9.0 now) as he ranks among the league leaders in that category. Also, Ross has done an impeccable job of keeping balls from leaving stadiums – just three homers allowed on the year (0.27 HR/9). The big issue – and it is doozy – is the lack of control. Ross has a 12 percent walk rate, which hurts his owners in the all-important WHIP category (1.46 this year). He has walked five batters in a game in three of his last four starts, though the start in between was a complete game, one-run gem against the Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Ross has become even more of an extreme ground ball pitcher - 62 percent this year, compared to 57 and 55 percent the last two years – which bodes well in the long run. Ross is capable of harnessing his control, and putting up a better second half than first half, but it is going to have to come at the expense of the high strikeout-rate. A 3.00 FIP (3.36 ERA) is a good sign for Ross as well. Keep the faith here.

DISHONORABLE MENTIONS

Ryan Howard (1B, PHI) – He and Albert Pujols are moving in opposite directions. An incredibly horrid .229 OBP since the beginning of June, no improvement in his strikeout-rate (currently 28 percent) and walking half as often as he did last year. Fringy bench option even in 15-team leagues.

Carlos Santana (1B/DH, CLE) – The Indians are going to need him to replicate last season's second half. Hitting .183 in last 30 games. Has not been able to get into a rhythm, missing time due to back spasms, a minor wrist injury and (congratulations) paternity leave. Feeling a big power surge on the way.

Alfredo Simon (SP, DET) – Losing Scherzer was inevitable, but the Tigers could have done better than replacing him with Simon and Shane Greene. Gave up a career-high 15 hits to the Pirates last week. He could throw a CGSO tomorrow and I still wouldn't bring him near a 20-team league roster.

Dan Haren (SP, MIA) – Has always been the quintessential first-half/second-half splits guy, with the good stuff coming early. This year, we may see the reverse. Ratios in decline every month since April. Gave up 10 hits in his latest outing. No run support from a Stanton-less offense will hurt his next 4-5 starts.

Gregory Polanco (OF, PIT)
Billy Butler (1B/DH, OAK)
Danny Duffy (SP, KC)
Rick Porcello (SP, BOS)

DON'T PANIC ON

Yasiel Puig (OF, LAD) – Doesn't look anything like the second round fantasy pick we drafted him as, but there is still an entire half season to go. It's not like he just forgot how to hit. OBP (.377) and walk-rate (11.5) are the only good signs right now. Not running because of the hamstring (0-for-2) and just three homers in 30 games. You've waited this long already, just hold on.

Justin Verlander (SP, DET) – Nevermind, you can go ahead and panic. He is nowhere close to the same pitcher he once was.