MLB Barometer: Staying Focused

If you are still reading this column, chances are your fantasy team(s) are either currently in first place or still in the hunt for a money spot. With less than ten weeks left to play in the season, the name of the game is two-fold: staying focused, and attacking categories.

Many of us are two-sport fantasy players. With football right around the corner, it can be difficult to balance our limited spare time on both maintaining momentum in our baseball leagues and prepping for football ones. Major league rosters and rotations are about to get jumbled with trades this week and with September roster expansion on the horizon, there is no more important time to stay on the ball while some of your competition starts to get distracted.

Staying on top of news is of the utmost importance. Now that Johnny Cueto has been traded, who gets dropped from the Royals rotation – Duffy or Ventura? (note: it should be Guthrie). If you own the odd man out and need the roster spot to add Joe Ross against the Mets this week, keep refreshing Google news or your Twitter feed to get the info you need to help your team this week. Who are the Padres' minor league prospects that will get impactful playing time when AJ Preller guts the team this week? Write those names down and get a head start on this upcoming weekend's free agent bidding list. Being in front of what could possibly be a very crazy week of trading ensures that nothing will be missed come FAAB time and that you can make the most logical and well thought-out decisions.

Attacking our weak categories down the stretch is imperative in rotisserie leagues, but the stretch begins now – not on September 1. In NFBC where you can make mid-week switches (Mon-Thurs, Fri-Sun) -- If your team is at the top of HR/RBI categories with a healthy lead on second place, but bunched up in the middle of the SB category, playing Jarrod Dyson against four RHP this period over Yoenis Cespedes or JD Martinez in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field is the move, no matter how strange it looks on your computer screen. At this point in the season, every lineup decision is a difficult one. We have to attack the categories we can move up in to gain those extra points, not just play the guy who's been better YTD.

Same goes for pitching. Say you have Brett Anderson on your roster bubble in a deep 15-teamer, but are solid in ERA and WHIP, and have room to gain in wins and strikeouts. If you feel Anderson is expendable, or you don't expect him to stay healthy much longer, drop him and take a chance on someone with two good starts on paper like Joe Kelly or Wade Miley (vs CHW, vs TB). Look at Kelly and Miley's opposing SPs, strikeout-rates and lefty/righty splits of the White Sox and Rays' offenses and take the guy you think has the best shot at two wins and 12 strikeouts with the least potential to harm your ratios (note: this is just an example. Both Miley and Kelly are hazardous to your health and your ratios. But this is baseball, so anything could happen).

On our NFBC Main Event team, Andrew and I had to stream fifth starting outfielders while Justin Upton was out. Since Byron Buxton is DL'd and we didn't trust Khris Davis (nor his playing time), we added Brandon Barnes for a week at Coors. This week, we dropped Barnes for Stephen Piscotty, who should play first base this week despite being OF eligible. Now that Upton is back, it gives us a prime opportunity to bench David Peralta who has been struggling lately and heads to Safeco to face Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma and likely to sit against a lefty (Mike Montgomery). Moreover, Piscotty has four games in this first period of the week, while Peralta has three (but will probably play two). Maxing out games played is crucial, especially more so to those of us who have lost leagues by a single run or RBI.

Compartmentalizing and maximizing each week or lineup period as its own unique animal is absolutely necessary. At the end of each day of trades this week, make a note of new opportunities (rotation or lineup spot) and assemble your list to stay on top of your competitors in the midst of all this football pre training camp madness - Marshawn Lynch lost 20 pounds and got a new Maltese that opens up a softer Marshawn. It's still baseball season, damn it, and you have a league to win!

PS – Not Buying It and Don't Panic On will return next April. You already know who not to buy and it's too late to panic.

RISERS

Robinson Cano (2B, SEA) – The decrees of Cano's demise were premature. After the worst three-month stretch of his career, Cano has turned up the heat in July - .337/.384/.993 with six homers, and among the league leaders this month in both runs (18) and RBI (17). Logical assumptions were made about Cano's steep drop-off in production, including the notion that his skills were on the decline now that he was well into his 30's, especially following a huge drop-off in power since coming over to Seattle. Recently, we learned that Cano has been suffering from a stomach ailment, and that at least helps explain part of his first-half struggles. It will be interesting to see if Cano can parlay his hot July into a productive last two months of the season. Also, we will have to keep an eye on his walk-rate and strikeout-rate over the next two months and see if the declines (5.1 BB % – lowest since 2008, 16.7 K % - highest in career) can be restored towards his prior three-year average (9.2 BB %, 12.1 K %). Cano is in danger of missing the .300 BA mark for the first time since 2008 and for only the third time in his 11-year career. Currently sitting at .262, Cano will be hard-pressed to come close to .300, but can still produce as a top five 2B the rest of the way. The move away from Yankee Stadium has definitely affected Cano's production as he slowly moves out of Top 30 Overall status in fantasy drafts. Younger players at his position – Jason Kipnis, Dee Gordon and Brian Dozier – will be moving ahead of him next March, no matter what Cano does over the final two months.

Eric Hosmer (1B, KC) – Hosmer may never hit the 30 homers you desire from your first baseman. Luckily, we don't play in one-category fantasy leagues and Hosmer has provided his owners a profit on his price (162 ADP in NFBC) thus far – especially when you consider some of the 1B drafted ahead of him – Chris Carter, Adam LaRoche and Mark Trumbo. It may seem like Hosmer has been in the league awhile, but he is only 25 years old. A guy who should always provide a solid floor hitting in the middle of the Royals lineup, Hosmer has more or less matched last year's 5x5 stats in 37 less games. His July has been scorching (.364/.420/.933) and his batting average is up to .304 on the season. It is also worth noting that Hosmer's .152 ISO is his best effort since his rookie year when he hit 19 roundtrippers. Corner infielders who hit for contact will continue to be underrated in fantasy drafts year after year, but are worth their weight in gold. Who knows, maybe Hosmer will win a batting title one of these years.

Gio Gonzalez (SP, WAS) – Though Gonzalez has continued his walking ways (3.32 BB/9 on par with career average), he has turned in a string of solid performances over the past month as the Nationals turn on the heat as they look to secure the NL East. Over his past eight starts, Gonzalez only has one outing where he has allowed more than two earned runs. His strikeout-rate is down (20 percent, compared to 24 percent last year) but at least, so are the home runs (0.43 HR/9) as Gonzalez has transformed into more of a groundball pitcher (career-high 58 percent GB-rate). He rarely goes beyond six innings (just four times in 18 starts), but is more consistent in his outings this year, with less frequent blowups. Though FIP and xFIP aren't the be-all, end-all of ratio analysis, Gonzalez's 3.16 FIP portends to a bit of bad luck in the 3.83 ERA. He lines up to face the hapless Mets in Shea next week, followed by a home start against the Diamondbacks. In a world of Jake Arrietas, Dallas Keuchels and Jacob deGroms, there is something to be said about a consistent, non-flashy vet whose mindset on the mound has improved as he begins his thirties.

Hisashi Iwakuma (SP, SEA) – Iwakuma is one of the starters in Gio Gonzalez's ADP range who has hurt his owners this season by hurting himself. He spent nearly two months on the disabled list after straining his lat muscle on April 25. Since getting trounced for five runs upon his return on July 6, Iwakuma has slightly harkened back to his 2013 days where he finished the season with a 2.66 ERA in just under 220 innings. Over his last three starts (20.2 IP), Iwakuma has a 18:4 K:BB ratio and the Mariners won each of those starts against tough offenses – NYY, DET and LAA. Though Iwakuma is 34 years old, he should provide solid value for his price in spite of a rough April – the key is that he is fully healed. He had a rough season in 2014 - much of the struggle due to a spring training injury to his right middle finger which affected the grip on his split-fingered fastball. Iwakuma will never sit the world on fire, nor ever garner a top 100 overall ADP again, but has a knack for limiting walks and should get a handful of starts from here on out in the friendly confines of Safeco. He lines up for a decent two-step this week – at home against the Diamondbacks and the Twins on the road this weekend.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Tyler Saladino (3B, CHW) – No spring chicken, finally called up to the bigs at age 26, but playing well enough for the White Sox to trade away Conor Gillaspie. Had 25 SB in 52 games at Triple-A this year. Two homers and nine runs scored in 51 at-bats (hitting .294). His call-up coincides with the recent hot streaks of Adam Eaton and Melky Cabrera. Worth a snag in 15-teamers if he is still lingering there.

Jung-Ho Kang (3B, PIT) – Just one homer in his last 10 games, but hitting for crazy contact lately. Had a six-game stretch with two hits in each through last Friday. Always have my eye on him for DFS tournaments and I'm foreseeing a few home runs in his immediate future – specifically, the four-game series coming up against the Reds (DeSclafini, Lorenzen, Iglesias, Leake).

Craig Kimbrel (RP, SD) – Leads all closers with 10 saves in July. Padres' offense have been struggling – when they win, it's by a run or two. Closing in on Mark Melancon (31 to 28) for the major league lead in saves. The 1.15 WHIP isn't Kimbrellesque, but he is working on bringing it back to that range.

Patrick Corbin (SP, ARI) – Masterful 10 strikeout performance against the Brewers last week, matching his career-high (he struck out 10 four times in 2013). Seems to be adjusting well 14 months after his TJ surgery, unlike fellow lefty Matt Moore in Tampa Bay.

OTHER RISERS

Nick Castellanos (3B, DET), Chris Davis (1B, BAL), Ian Desmond (SS, WAS), Preston Tucker (OF, HOU), Jake Peavy (SP, SF), Ian Kennedy (SP, SD), Tyler Jungmann (SP, MLW), Jon Lester (SP, CHC)

FALLERS

Luis Valbuena (3B, HOU) – When something appears too good to be true, it usually is. Though nobody expected Valbuena to continue to crush homers at his early-season pace. It has now been over a month since his last home run (June 23 against the Angels) and his batting average remains under the Mendoza line. Valbuena has been taking a seat on the bench more often lately, and continues to sit against LHP. Jed Lowrie is headed back from his rehab stint soon to assume his position. Valbuena can safely be dropped in 12-team leagues.

Stephen Vogt (C, OAK) – Vogt has cooled considerably this month (.185/.208/.465) after a scorching start that placed Vogt among the top hitting catchers over the first half of the season. Vogt's batting average has dipped from above .300 down to .274 as he continues to struggle against left-handed pitchers (.233, compared to .296 vs righties). Vogt has 14 HR and 58 RBI and has a good shot to reach 20-75, but a 30-year-old catcher with not much of a pedigree shouldn't be expected to replicate down the stretch what we witnessed earlier this season.

Steven Souza (OF, TB) – Quite simply, one of the most horrific hackers in the league, but we had been warned and most of us knew exactly what we were getting into. Souza is tied for fourth in baseball with 115 strikeouts but ranks first (or last, depending on how you look at it) with a 35.5 percent strikeout rate. The Rays continue to let Souza lead off most games despite a .294 OBP and a .202 batting average, which tells you all you need to know about the Rays' anemic offense. Souza has a decent walk rate (10.2 percent) and is a nice power/speed combo guy (15 HR, 10 SB) – about the only things he has going for him. Souza missed a couple of weeks in spring training with forearm tightness, which affected his ADP in the latter half of March. He was being drafted at least two rounds higher in late February and early March drafts. Souza also suffered a sprained wrist in June and missed 11 games this month with a lacerated pinkie. If healthy, another 10 home runs over the final two months would not be the least bit shocking. At the very least, he should let Mariners' Mike Zunino pass him up for league's worst strikeout-percentage at some point in the immediate future.

Yovani Gallardo (SP, TEX) – On the surface, Gallardo is having a great season – for Gallardo. His numbers for your fantasy team makes it feel like you plucked an ace of the waiver wire, especially if you got him after he was dropped in May. His stretch of five starts in June was wicked – just two earned runs allowed over 33.1 innings with batters hitting .174 against him. His two post-All Star break outings have been rough and a bit more typical Gallardo – 5 ER and 3 BB in road starts against the Angels and Astros, getting yanked after 4 IP in each start. If you dig a bit deeper, you'll notice Gallardo 6.16 strikeouts-per-nine are a career-low and that he is walking almost a full batter per nine innings more than last year – 3.41 compared to 2.53. Also, his xFIP of 4.18 is nearly a full run higher than his 3.19 ERA. Gallardo is on the trading block and may already be donning a new uniform by the time this piece hits the web. The Dodgers are one of his suitors, but mostly as a backup option in case a deal for Cole Hamels or David Price doesn't come to fruition.

DISHONORABLE MENTIONS

Rajai Davis (OF, DET) – Has not been much of a fantasy asset this year, but even worse in July (.158, 0 RBI, 0-for-1 in SB attempts). Just two steals since June 1. Feel free to dump him in your 12-teamer unless you desperately need steals and think he gets traded before the deadline to a team that gives him playing time and a green light on the base paths. He's 34 but still has wheels.

Avisail Garcia (OF, CHW) – A guy I loosely targeted everywhere, but got nowhere - thank goodness - I was dead wrong. Hit .319 over the first two months but with little else (4 HR, 18 RBI) and has been one of the least productive full-time players since then. Awful on the base paths (5-for-11). He could heat up down the stretch, as just about any big leaguer can, but he just isn't the 20/15 I thought he could be. Of course, I can't quit him as the price should be dirt cheap next year.

Matt Wieters (C, BAL) – Does not appear to have recovered from offseason TJ surgery. Came back on June 5 and had a nice couple of weeks, but has been ice cold recently. Hitting .200 (1 R, 0 HR, 2 RBI) this month. Those of us who want to snag Wieters at a good price next year will have to hope for continued struggles this year to keep his ADP somewhat reasonable.

Ubaldo Jimenez (SP, BAL) – Since the All-Star break, consecutive outings allowing 7 ER, but tough matchups @DET and @NYY. Plus, Ubaldo doesn't like sleeping in hotels – 5.25 road ERA compared with a 2.06 at home. He lines up for two waking up in his own bed this week (ATL, DET). Stream him if you can.

OTHER FALLERS

Joc Pederson (OF, LAD), Billy Butler (1B, OAK), Pablo Sandoval (3B, BOS), John Axford (RP, COL), AJ Burnett (SP, PIT), Alex Wood (SP, ATL)