Farm Futures: Tomorrow's Roto Stars

Farm Futures: Tomorrow's Roto Stars

This article is part of our Farm Futures series.

On heels of the recent release of the Top-200 prospect rankings for dynasty leagues, it may be of some use to owners to know exactly which roto categories they can bank on elite production from some of the game's top prospects.

Most Strikeout Potential

Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pirates (No. 9 overall) --Lucas Giolito is the best pitching prospect in the game, but Glasnow would be my pick for the first pitcher currently in the minors to post at least 250 strikeouts in a season. His 6-foot-7 frame and the fact that he will likely join the Pirates' rotation next season both work in his favor. Glasnow has a 30.4 percent K-rate in 10 starts at Double-A this season as a 21-year-old, which mocks this author, who thought there could be some bumps in the road as he made the jump from High-A to Double-A.

Honorable Mention:

Lucas Giolito, Julio Urias, Alex Reyes, Jeff Hoffman, Jose De Leon

This honorable mention list could go on for days, as the top pitching prospects in the minors all have one thing in common: they miss bats. There have been a number of big-time strikeout pitchers to debut in the majors this season, most notably Noah Syndergaard, Carlos Rodon, Vincent Velasquez and Lance McCullers, but the minor leagues are still flush with elite bat-missers. Giolito projects to be the best option for ERA and WHIP followed by Urias and Jose Berrios.

Most Power

On heels of the recent release of the Top-200 prospect rankings for dynasty leagues, it may be of some use to owners to know exactly which roto categories they can bank on elite production from some of the game's top prospects.

Most Strikeout Potential

Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pirates (No. 9 overall) --Lucas Giolito is the best pitching prospect in the game, but Glasnow would be my pick for the first pitcher currently in the minors to post at least 250 strikeouts in a season. His 6-foot-7 frame and the fact that he will likely join the Pirates' rotation next season both work in his favor. Glasnow has a 30.4 percent K-rate in 10 starts at Double-A this season as a 21-year-old, which mocks this author, who thought there could be some bumps in the road as he made the jump from High-A to Double-A.

Honorable Mention:

Lucas Giolito, Julio Urias, Alex Reyes, Jeff Hoffman, Jose De Leon

This honorable mention list could go on for days, as the top pitching prospects in the minors all have one thing in common: they miss bats. There have been a number of big-time strikeout pitchers to debut in the majors this season, most notably Noah Syndergaard, Carlos Rodon, Vincent Velasquez and Lance McCullers, but the minor leagues are still flush with elite bat-missers. Giolito projects to be the best option for ERA and WHIP followed by Urias and Jose Berrios.

Most Power Potential

Joey Gallo, 3B, Rangers (No. 5 overall) -- Everyone knows about Gallo and his mastodonic power, and as long as he is in the minor leagues he will hold this distinction. Even when he is recalled, only Giancarlo Stanton could hope to match his power potential at the big league level. It may seem odd then, that a fellow future middle-of-the order bat for Texas, Nomar Mazara, ranks ahead of Gallo on the latest top-200. The reason for this is that Mazara is actually a safer prospect than Gallo in my estimation. He is slashing .283/.359/.440 with 10 home runs and just a 21.4 percent K-rate as a 20-year-old at Double-A. Those numbers become even more impressive considering Mazara didn't hit his first home run until May 16. While his raw power won't match Gallo's, Mazara's hit tool will allow him to be a more valuable rotisserie option in the long run.

Honorable Mention:

Nomar Mazara, Aaron Judge, Rafael Devers, A.J. Reed, Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Bobby Bradley

There are plenty of players further down the top-200 who theoretically could hit at least 30 homers in the big leagues, but these five have the best combination of upside and probability. Guerrero, 16, and Bradley, 19, carry the most risk given how far Guerrero is from the majors and Bradley's propensity to swing and miss, but they are still worth rostering in leagues where at least 100 prospects are owned. Reed has the most "now" power of the bunch, blasting 23 home runs in 83 games at High-A before receiving a long overdue promotion to Corpus Christi. The most projection is required with Devers, 18, who has just seven homers in 75 games at Low-A, but there is a vast industry consensus that he will turn into a legit middle-of-the-order run producer in time.

Most Batting Average Potential

Raimel Tapia, OF, Rockies (No. 17 overall) -- I would fully expect many of my colleagues to disagree with this choice, but if I'm betting on one prospect who remains in the minor leagues to someday hit .320 in a season at the major league level, Tapia is my pick. His swing and approach are a bit unorthodox, but it works for him. He is excellent at putting bat on ball and the eye test backs up the suggestion in the numbers that he is one of the best hitters in the minor leagues. Tapia plays with great passion on the field and has the speed from the left side to beat out plenty of balls that might otherwise go for outs. Over the last four seasons between rookie ball, Low-A and High-A, Tapia has never hit below .315 and has never posted a K-rate above 19 percent. While a skeptic could point out that he has played in mostly hitter-friendly environments in the minors, he will also get the benefit of playing half his games in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the majors, so he should continue to take advantage of the factors that are out of his control.

Honorable Mention:

Corey Seager, J.P. Crawford, Nick Williams, Billy McKinney, Josh Bell, Stephen Piscotty

Projecting hit tools against major league pitching is tricky business, and realistically all the hitters ranked in the top-50 other than Gallo, Judge and Jorge Alfaro could post multiple seasons with a batting average north of .300. Crawford probably has my favorite swing of anyone still in the minor leagues, so while he has not hit above .300 at any full-season league where he has had more than 100 plate appearances, I could easily see a handful of .300-plus seasons during his prime years in the big leagues. There are those who think Williams might have the best hit tool in the minor leagues, and while he has taken great strides this season in his approach, it is still just an 87-game sample, and I could see some more swing-and-miss returning to his game against big league pitching.

Most Stolen-Base Potential

Jorge Mateo, SS, Yankees (No. 42 overall) -- Everyone knew Mateo was one of the fastest players in the minor leagues before the season, and he has been stealing bases at a crazy clip in his first year against full-season competition. The 6-foot, 188-pound shortstop had 62 steals in 76 attempts (81.6 percent success rate) this season in 83 games at Low-A Charleston. Time will tell whether he will hit for a high average against advanced pitching, but he has managed to use his speed to hit better than .270 in each of the last three seasons. While the vast majority of Mateo's future value hinges on his 80-grade speed, he also projects to hit 8-12 homers per season in his peak years, which means he has first-round upside, especially given the fact that he could stick at shortstop.

Honorable Mention

Tim Anderson, Trea Turner, Jose Peraza, Roman Quinn, Derek Hill

There seem to be 80-speed guys in every organization, but only a select few of the fastest players in the minor leagues can also offer average or better production at the plate while also serving as high-end defensive players. Anderson may move off of shortstop, but in that case he would likely end up in center field, where his speed would allow him to still be a plus defender. Turner and Peraza could both be on their team's Opening Day rosters in 2016, and while they may not hit right away, their speed will warrant consideration in all formats. Quinn and Hill both had fewer than 30 steals in the first half, but both center field prospects offer 40-plus steal upside if they can make it as everyday players. The fact that Hill is still at Low-A and probably three years away from being in the majors is the reason he does not join the other four as top-100 prospects at the halfway point.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
James Anderson
James Anderson is RotoWire's Lead Prospect Analyst, Assistant Baseball Editor, and co-host of Farm Fridays on Sirius/XM radio and the RotoWire Prospect Podcast.
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