This article is part of our The Saber's Edge series.
When an owned player is not actively playing MLB games, they need to be replaced on the roster. The new player has some value, but will likely head back to the waiver wire when the better player returns to the roster. The combined production is the expected value for the better player. Today, I am going to step through the procedure for determining a player's value if they plan on missing a significant part of the season.
The reasons to find this replacement level value is for the initial draft and for in-season trades. People knew Jose Fernandez was coming back later in the season to be a possible #1 starter, but how much should he get docked for the missing time. He wasn't a top three round selection, but he also shouldn't be the last player drafted. The following procedure helps to find his and his replacements total value so Fernandez can then be valued correctly.
During the season, the process can be used to help with trades. When Giancarlo Stanton went on the DL, other teams may have tried to swoop in to get him cheap for a late season power push when he comes back. Well he has some value, but it is down significantly. This process will help to get a better idea of his current trade value.
To start with, this concept may be a little difficult to completely grasp, but I will try to slowly step through the process. If you have any questions, let me know in the comments.
The first step in this process is to identify the players who may need be supplemented with a replacement level player. Generally, two players types need to adjusted: injured players and minor leaguers.
At the beginning of the season, it is easy to spot and analyze these players and have a general idea when the players will make their MLB appearance. The Tommy John recipients will likely return 14 months after their surgery. Some rookies will miss a couple of weeks to gain a year of eligibility, others are likely to have a mid-season call ups. These are known injuries with a historic time line and teams wanting to keep players under control for a year of control. This season these players included Kris Bryant and Jose Fernandez.
During the season, the players which need to be examined will be players on the DL. Determining the time they will miss is always a little iffy experiment since teams and players don't tell the true extent of injury and players always think they will return early. Here are some general rules I follow when dealing with in-season injuries.
- Believe the team over the player. The team has seen the injury before and has a good idea of the rehab process. Players on the other hand will gravitate to the previous player who returned to playing the quickest from the same injury.
- If given a time frame of 4-6 weeks. Use the larger time frame.
- Read the quotes carefully. The report may say "Player X will not be throwing for three weeks". Well, after those three weeks, he will need to get back up to speed. The general rule of thumb I follow for pitchers is: 1 week not throwing = 1 week of rehab up to a max of 4 weeks.
With this information an owner will know what percent of the season the player will miss.
The second key is to find the replacement level player who will fill in while the player is out. This requires a little work on the owner's part. I have never played in a league with the exact same rules as another one. A small change in the rules can really change the players available in the free agent market. There are two processes to determine replacement level. One pre-draft and one post-draft.
I will start with the harder one of the two, the pre-draft replacement level. An owner takes their player in question like Jose Fernandez. They need a pitcher to replace him for half the season. So they take the number of teams in the league and the number of starting pitchers they expect to get drafted. For example in a 12-team league with 9 pitching slots. I would expect at least 6 pitchers to be starting with another possible 3 on the bench. So 108 (9*12) starting pitchers will be gone. They can sort the players by percentage drafted or take your 108th ranked starting pitcher and make him the replacement pitcher. Additionally, they could look at the players around 84th mark as this will be the best starting pitcher on your bench. Finally, if he or she wants to take the average stats of several pitchers (option on downloadable sheet) feel free to.
After the draft/auction is completed, the process is easier. An owner will find the replacement player(s) who they would use to fill the roster slot until the player returns. This will be a player already on their roster or a player on the waiver wire.
The third step is to enter the data into a spreadsheet. A copy can be download from here (link to downloadable spreadsheet, File, Download As), but here are the views from the hitter and pitcher pages.
Hitters
Pitchers
Just a few piece pieces of information need to be added to the sheet in the yellow cells to make the composite player.
- At bats and innings: This is the number of innings you would expect one full-time player to accumulate over the rest of the season.
- Percentage of PA: This measures the percentage of total plate appearances, through your previous estimates, that the player will eventually have during the season. The other Percentage of PA cell gets automatically calculated.
- The Projected Stats: Go to the RotoWire's rest-of-season projections and copy in the values.
In my examples, I found a comparable player for Giancarlo Stanton and Noah Syndergaard.
The final step is to find comparable players in the Rotowire projections and value Stanton and Syndergaard accordingly.
For Stanton (composite = 9 HR, .263 AVG) such players are Carlos Gonzalez (9 HR, .268 AVG), Adam Jones (9 HR, .257 AVG), and Justin Upton (9 HR, .260 AVG). A step down from Stanton, but still above average players. For Syndergaard (composite = 57 K and 3.73 ERA) I found Scott Kazmir (56K, 3.71 ERA), Colin McHugh (55K, 3.63 ERA), and Matt Cain (58K, 3.85 ERA). The higher ERA really hurts, but he should be able to fetch a decent pitcher.
Valuing players who will miss time can be difficult, but the guesswork can be removed by following a few steps. Determining the estimated time missed and placement level player(s) can be used to find a composite-level player. The composite player is how the original player should be valued in drafts and trades going forward. As always, let me know if you have any problems following this process.
