This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
On July 25, Duda hit two home runs, which equaled the number he produced in his previous 120 plate appearances. Those two home runs kicked off Duda's latest hot streak as he is batting .340/.418/.979, and no, that slugging percentage is not a misprint. The Mets are also 10-3 during that time and have surged ahead of the Washington Nationals in the National League East.
Is Lucas Duda the new straw that stirs the drink in Flushing Meadows?
Let's look at Duda's season in the three phases it has played out to be thus far to see what has changed skill-wise in each phase.
| SPLIT | PA | SWING% | CONTACT% | O-SWING% | SWSTR% |
| OD - 5/29 | 199 | 42 | 78 | 28 | 9 |
| 5/29-7/24 | 195 | 44 | 72 | 29 | 12 |
| Since | 55 | 38 | 75 | 22 | 10 |
The number of plate appearances in Phases 1 and 2 were nearly identical, but the behaviors were not. Duda made less contact in Phase 2 despite little differences in the frequency in which he chased pitches outside of the strike zone. Using the data from BaseballSavant.com, we can see what and where Duda was struggling with in Phase 1.
Duda did most of his swinging-and-missing
On July 25, Duda hit two home runs, which equaled the number he produced in his previous 120 plate appearances. Those two home runs kicked off Duda's latest hot streak as he is batting .340/.418/.979, and no, that slugging percentage is not a misprint. The Mets are also 10-3 during that time and have surged ahead of the Washington Nationals in the National League East.
Is Lucas Duda the new straw that stirs the drink in Flushing Meadows?
Let's look at Duda's season in the three phases it has played out to be thus far to see what has changed skill-wise in each phase.
| SPLIT | PA | SWING% | CONTACT% | O-SWING% | SWSTR% |
| OD - 5/29 | 199 | 42 | 78 | 28 | 9 |
| 5/29-7/24 | 195 | 44 | 72 | 29 | 12 |
| Since | 55 | 38 | 75 | 22 | 10 |
The number of plate appearances in Phases 1 and 2 were nearly identical, but the behaviors were not. Duda made less contact in Phase 2 despite little differences in the frequency in which he chased pitches outside of the strike zone. Using the data from BaseballSavant.com, we can see what and where Duda was struggling with in Phase 1.
Duda did most of his swinging-and-missing outside the strike zone down and in as well as down and away, as he did in this particular at-bat against David Phelps. In terms of pitch types, most of his swings and misses came against sliders and four-seam fastballs which accounted for 43 percent of his swings and misses in Phase 1.
Phase 2 for Duda was mostly more of the same as he still had issues low and away, but did not swing and miss as much down and in as he did overall within the strike zone.
Duda had 12 swings-and-misses at pitches within the strike zone during Phase 1, but nearly doubled that rate in Phase 2 with 22 swings-and-misses in the zone. Duda continued to have his fair share of swings-and-misses at four-seamers and sliders (45 percent), but also struggled with the changeup.
Duda, while looking to get around on fastballs on the inner half, was susceptible to changeups away, and he saw plenty, like this nasty one from Carlos Martinez in early July.
Phase 3 looks different for Duda because he's in the zone. He is not swinging and missing that much these days.
By using the BaseballSavant event data, we see how Duda's outcomes break out by phase:
| SPLIT | BALL% | CALLED STRIKE% | WHIFF% | FOUL% | HITS% | IN PLAY% |
| OD - 5/29 | 39 | 19 | 9 | 18 | 6 | 9 |
| 5/29-7/24 | 40 | 17 | 12 | 18 | 3 | 10 |
| Since | 41 | 21 | 10 | 30 | 7 | 8 |
He is taking more called strikes during this hot streak, but if we look back at the first table, we see he is swinging at fewer pitches. In short, he is being more selective at the plate these days and waiting to drill a pitch. That is also why his percentage of pitches put in play is low; home runs don't count as balls put into play. He is in such a zone now, he's covering both sides of the plate as the heatmap of his safely batted balls of late shows:
If we can point at one plate appearance that shows how hot Duda is at the plate, it was Sunday night in the ESPN game against the Washington Nationals. He got a first-pitch fastball up and in from Jordan Zimmermann and did this to it:
A power hitter with confidence to swing at that kind of first pitch is a dangerous thing. The outcome justified the process because Duda is typically a terrible hitter as he has homered just five times off high fastballs in his career, the first of which came in his rookie year against Craig Kimbrel.
The Duda is abiding by the good principles of power hitting -- timing and accuracy. He's pulling 94-mph fastballs up and in out of the park and covering both sides of the plate and making it very tough for pitchers to get him out as he hits between Yoenis Cespedes and David Murphy. Can he continue doing this for the rest of the season? I doubt it -- but that's just like my opinion, man.
