This article is part of our Minor League Barometer series.
Sometimes the presence of a promising prospect takes the sting out of the loss of a prized veteran at the same position, or the free agent is purposely let go to make way for such a phenom. That looks to be the case in Texas, where Joey Gallo is being groomed to take over at third base for Adrian Beltre next season. When the team has no star prospect to replace the star's production, that's where the real trouble begins. But what about the middle ground, when there's talent in the minors but uncertainty as to what level?
That's where the Orioles find themselves in regard to first baseman Chris Davis. His recent hot streak has certainly helped his cause in terms of dollars and cents, but for the normally-frugal Orioles, they might be at a crossroads. The Orioles let Nelson Cruz walk after a stellar season, and have badly missed his boomstick in the middle of their lineup. The loss of Davis could be a crushing blow to the O's, but they have an emerging first-base prospect currently at Double-A. That would be Trey Mancini, an eighth round pick out of Notre Dame who is batting .363 with eight home runs and 39 RBI through 57 games at that level. Like Davis, Mancini does not walk much. He also does not possess quite the prodigious power that Davis has. The O's have 24-year-old Christian Walker at Triple-A as well, who belted 26 dingers in 2014 but has
Sometimes the presence of a promising prospect takes the sting out of the loss of a prized veteran at the same position, or the free agent is purposely let go to make way for such a phenom. That looks to be the case in Texas, where Joey Gallo is being groomed to take over at third base for Adrian Beltre next season. When the team has no star prospect to replace the star's production, that's where the real trouble begins. But what about the middle ground, when there's talent in the minors but uncertainty as to what level?
That's where the Orioles find themselves in regard to first baseman Chris Davis. His recent hot streak has certainly helped his cause in terms of dollars and cents, but for the normally-frugal Orioles, they might be at a crossroads. The Orioles let Nelson Cruz walk after a stellar season, and have badly missed his boomstick in the middle of their lineup. The loss of Davis could be a crushing blow to the O's, but they have an emerging first-base prospect currently at Double-A. That would be Trey Mancini, an eighth round pick out of Notre Dame who is batting .363 with eight home runs and 39 RBI through 57 games at that level. Like Davis, Mancini does not walk much. He also does not possess quite the prodigious power that Davis has. The O's have 24-year-old Christian Walker at Triple-A as well, who belted 26 dingers in 2014 but has just 12 this season. The O's have options, but are they worth letting Davis go to another team? Will Baltimore pony up the cash for another Scott Boras client, or let the youngsters battle it out at first instead? These questions face not just the Orioles, but most teams around the league, each and every season.
The rest of the Minor League Barometer is far less philosophical.
UPGRADE
Sean Newcomb, P, LAA – Newcomb has been one of the fastest risers in 2015. In his first full season of professional ball, he has found little resistance. He breezed through 11 starts at Low-A to begin the year, posting a 1.83 ERA and fanning 45 batters in 34.1 innings, then was quickly bumped up to High-A where the unfriendly confines of the California League proved no match. The 22-year-old southpaw notched a 2.47 ERA and struck out 84 batters in 65.2 innings. Newcomb is now currently at Double-A, and through two starts, his ERA sits at 1.64. Overall, opposing batters are hitting a mere .200 against him this season. He'll enter 2016 as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, though it is not without at least a bit of trepidation given that he's walked a total of 60 batters in 111 innings this season. While he has been able to avoid trouble, he may not be able to get away with the additional base runners at the higher levels. Still, Newcomb has the strikeout stuff to be a future rotation anchor, and his debut could come as early as 2016.
J.D. Davis, 3B, HOU – Houston is fortunate that the cutting of ties with J.D. Martinez has not truly come back to haunt them, though certainly the playoff-contending Astros would love to have Martinez's bat in their current lineup alongside Carlos Correa, Carlos Gomez and Jose Altuve. They've got another J.D. on the horizon though, and they would be wise not to make the same mistake with this version. Taking full of advantage of the aforementioned California League, the 22-year-old Davis has slugged home runs in six straight games at High-A Lancaster while accumulating 15 RBI over that span and hitting an even .500. This surge has pushed the overall slash line for Davis to .285/.364/.516. It will be interesting to see if he can keep up the power numbers at the higher levels and in more pitcher-friendly environments, though it is hard to knock the production of the 2014 third-round pick thus far.
Michael Fulmer, P, DET – Before getting into Fulmer's continued success in the 2015 campaign, let me be clear that the Mets did the right thing by trading him. And it has nothing to do with the prospect himself. Though you can never technically have enough starting pitching, the Mets were flush with starters and, barring injury, there would have been no place for Fulmer to pitch in 2016 with a rotation featuring Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler. The luxury of being able to trade him is one of the less talked-about aspects of having a superb farm system: depth. Their incredible development of pitchers over the last 3-4 years allowed the Mets to move Fulmer and Casey Meisner at the deadline when they needed help in other areas. Sure, the superstar names garner the headlines, and the Mets have arguably the best young rotation in baseball. But the ability to make deals like this and still get help at the big-league level often gets overlooked.
Back to Fulmer, though. The Tigers acquired Daniel Norris as well at the trade deadline, and the pair could be the anchors of the Detroit rotation for years to come. Fulmer has enjoyed a renaissance season and that has continued through two starts with the Tigers' Double-A Affiliate in Erie, as he has not allowed a run in 12.2 innings, posting an 11:3 K:BB ratio over that span. His fastball has shown staying power in the mid-90's, and he continues to work down in the zone, particularly with his slider. The Tigers did well to land Fulmer, who did not have the name brand of other talked-about Mets trade pieces like Wheeler. Though GM Dave Dombrowski got the ax a few days later, he should get credit for this under-the-radar haul.
Andrew Knapp, C, PHI – Knapp has been on fire lately. Over his last 10 games, the 23-year-old backstop is batting a staggering .545. He's also hit four home runs in his last five games; by contrast, he had four home runs through the first 94 games of the year between High-A and Double-A. While Knapp remains a work in progress behind the dish, his hitting thus far at Double-A cannot be ignored as he's batting .403/.446/.694 with six home runs and 40 RBI through 34 games at this level. While the sample size is small and he clearly will be unable to keep up this absurd pace, Knapp has thrown his hat into the ring in the suddenly stocked Phillies farm system. He will have to contend with Jorge Alfaro on the depth chart once the former Texas Ranger returns from injury. Alfaro is much more highly touted, considered a plus-defender and has shown power in the past, though has had trouble staying on the field.
CHECK STATUS
Orlando Arcia, SS, MIL – There is a picky, fantasy nuance to this article. Some players will be better actual ballplayers than fantasy players and Arcia could fall into that category, despite his superior ability to handle the bat. He's slashing .302/.345/.439 through 103 games with Double-A Biloxi. While he does have 21 stolen bases, he only has five home runs, which is just one shy of his career-high. Still, there's hope for the 21-year-old to develop more power. Arcia has 31 doubles, which leads the Southern League. If those doubles become home runs, his fantasy value would skyrocket. As it is, he should be a fine middle infielder for the Brewers and honestly, most shortstops are not relied upon to hit the ball out of the ballpark anyway. If Arcia can hit double-digit home runs and steal 20-30 bases, he will end up being among the better fantasy shortstops in the league anyway.
Spencer Adams, P, CHW – Still a teenager, 19-year-old Adams was a second round selection out of high school last season, but has looked far more polished than his age suggests. A three-sport star in high school, he posted a 59:4 K:BB ratio in 41.2 innings at the Rookie level last season and his control has been equally impressive in 2015, as he has a 73:12 K:BB ratio in 99 innings, largely at Low-A. He works effectively down in the zone, amassing a 1.58 GO:AO ratio in the process. The question for Adams at the higher levels will be if he can garner enough swings and misses to become a front line starter. While there is something to be said for trusting your fielders and pounding the strike zone, opposing batters are hitting .282 against Adams at Low-A. His changeup remains a work in progress, and he mostly works off of his fastball/slider combination. He will need more than just two pitches to compete at the higher levels. Though he has time to develop, Adams will need one of his pitches to turn into a complete wipeout pitch. In other words, one that will have opposing hitters flailing. He has tremendous upside, but for him to turn into an elite, front line starter, he will need to take his game to another level.
Cody Reed, P, CIN – Reed was arguably the least talked-about of the three hurlers that came over from the Royals in the Johnny Cueto deal. He may have the most upside of the three, though. Brandon Finnegan is a likely reliever and John Lamb only now seems to be working his way back to pre-Tommy John form. Reed, however, is a southpaw with a prototypical starter's frame and the strikeout numbers to match. The 22-year-old has a 2.69 ERA and 105:35 K:BB ratio through 113.2 innings this season. In his first two starts with the Reds organization at Double-A Pensacola, he allowed just one earned run while striking out 18 batters. As with many young pitchers, Reed is prone to the occasional blowup, usually when his command gets away from him. He allowed six earned runs in just 2.2 innings in his last outing for the Wahoos on Monday; five free passes played a large role in that poor outing. Still, overall his control has improved this season, and he works with three pitches effectively. The Reds look to be in overhaul mode, and Reed could be one of the players they hope can lead them back to the promised land.
Teoscar Hernandez, OF, HOU – Here's a prospect that epitomizes the Houston Astros mantra for 2015: Steals, Homers and Strikeouts. The Astros have made it clear that as an organization, they do not care if players strike out. That's wonderful for Hernandez, who has now fanned at least 100 times in three consecutive seasons. What he brings to the table though is speed, athleticism and pop. That's what the baseball pundits deem "toolsy". He has 14 home runs and 28 stolen bases through 97 games at Double-A. In 2014, Hernandez hit 21 home runs and swiped 33 bases, mostly at High-A. The pattern is clear. If you can steal bases and hit the ball out of the yard, they'll live with the Ks. He may be testing Houston's patience with this theory though, as the 22-year-old is batting just .222 with a .276 On-Base Percentage. He'd never hit below .240 prior to this season, and he hit .292 last year, so the sudden dip is certainly concerning. Still, for a team that leads the AL in home runs, steals and strikeouts, and is almost dead last in batting average, Hernandez seems to fit in quite nicely.
DOWNGRADE
Brett Phillips, OF, MIL – Did the Astros hoodwink the Brewers? Let's not get carried away here, but Phillips is batting just .219 with one RBI through his first 10 games with Double-A Biloxi. His power numbers have also been nonexistent since a bump up to Double-A, even before he was dealt to the Brewers. In 41 games at this new level, Phillips has one home run, 19 RBI, and 40 strikeouts. For the record, the sample size is small, and he still has the ability to hit 15 home runs and steal 15 bases at the big-league level. However he was certainly aided by the environment in the California League, and perhaps he fell in love with his power stroke at the cost of making contact. On the bright side, Phillips does have a .390 On-Base Percentage through 10 games with his new squad, so maybe his plate discipline is returning.
Ozhaino Albies, SS, ATL – A promising season for Albies has been cut short due to injury. The 18-year-old speedster suffered a thumb fracture and will miss the remainder of the year. He had emerged as arguably the top prospect for the Braves, swiping 29 bags in 98 games at Low-A Rome. Perhaps even more impressively though, Albies hit .310 as one of the youngest players in the South Atlantic League. Only one player had a higher batting average than he did when he got injured. The Braves will be cautious with Albies, who is still years away from making an MLB impact. While his 2015 season is finished, he should be ready and healthy for the 2016 campaign.
Edwin Diaz, P, SEA – Admittedly, this is a bit of an unfair downgrade for Diaz, who has pitched better at Double-A after a terrible start at this level. However, he has had command issues since the promotion from High-A, which has been the chief factor in his 4.26 ERA. Diaz has 30 walks in 80.1 innings, despite notching 82 strikeouts. However, he has walked nine batters in his last three outings, a span of just 14.1 innings. By way of comparison, he walked nine batters in his entire stint at High-A to begin the year, a span of 37 innings. The 21-year-old clearly has strikeout potential, but the walks could become an issue down the line. Furthermore, as a general question: who was the last Mariners pitching prospect to pan out, as a Mariner, since Felix Hernandez? Seattle hasn't had much luck grooming starters in recent years (see the struggles of Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen, etc). Let's hope Diaz does not suffer a similar fate.
Chris Anderson, P, LAD – Anderson has taken a pounding lately due to a combination of walks and gopher balls, allowing at least four earned runs in five of his last six starts at Double-A Tulsa. The former first round pick has also walked at least three batters in each of his last four outings. Anderson has been burned by the long ball in 2015 as well. He has allowed 12 home runs in 118 innings this season. In 2014, in the hitter-friendly confines of the California League, he allowed 11 home runs in 134.1 innings. His ERA has climbed from 3.31 on July 5 to 4.19 at the time of the writing of this article. Control appears to be his major problem, but Anderson hasn't exactly been unhittable either. In a stacked Los Angeles Dodger system, this is a pitcher trending in the wrong direction.
