Collette Calls: Breaking Down Robinson Cano

Collette Calls: Breaking Down Robinson Cano

This article is part of our Collette Calls series.

In late September, I wrote a piece looking at second-half numbers and why certain players improved or tanked it down the stretch. The last paragraph of that article offered a request to do specific player breakdowns during this offseason and for readers to make requests in the comments section. The first piece out of that was the Shin-Soo Choo one from mid-October. Today, we look at Robinson Cano.

Any piece that looks at what the 2015 season was for Robinson Cano has to start with his off-field issues. Cano had two challenges to deal with in his personal life -- the death of his grandfather and severe acid reflux that began as a parasitic issue late in 2014. The former issue tugs at the heart while the latter easily zaps one's energy because he can't consume what he normally would to have enough energy to get through a baseball game and play 6-7 nights a week.

Baseball players are human like the rest of us and saying they should leave their personal issues off the field is a lot easier than actually doing it. I know that when I was going through a divorce in 2000, I couldn't leave it at the door when I walked into my office each day. My performance out of the office affected my performance in the office. It turns out chasing skirts and drinking late into the night is not the best way to prepare for the next day at the office. I

In late September, I wrote a piece looking at second-half numbers and why certain players improved or tanked it down the stretch. The last paragraph of that article offered a request to do specific player breakdowns during this offseason and for readers to make requests in the comments section. The first piece out of that was the Shin-Soo Choo one from mid-October. Today, we look at Robinson Cano.

Any piece that looks at what the 2015 season was for Robinson Cano has to start with his off-field issues. Cano had two challenges to deal with in his personal life -- the death of his grandfather and severe acid reflux that began as a parasitic issue late in 2014. The former issue tugs at the heart while the latter easily zaps one's energy because he can't consume what he normally would to have enough energy to get through a baseball game and play 6-7 nights a week.

Baseball players are human like the rest of us and saying they should leave their personal issues off the field is a lot easier than actually doing it. I know that when I was going through a divorce in 2000, I couldn't leave it at the door when I walked into my office each day. My performance out of the office affected my performance in the office. It turns out chasing skirts and drinking late into the night is not the best way to prepare for the next day at the office. I lost that job due to poor performance and not having a $240 million guaranteed contract, but the point stands that nobody can completely separate their personal and professional lives.

The other prevailing theory with Cano's 2015 season is that Edgar Martinez saved it. Outside of the Seattle fan base, few love Martinez more than I do. He was the best right-handed hitter I saw in his time, and I think he belongs in the Hall of Fame because designated hitter is a position in the league he played in. After all, we're talking about a hitter with a career 147 OPS+ and a .312/.418/.515 slash line in more than 8,600 plate appearances.

Before diving into the Edgar effect statistically, it is worth reminding everyone that correlation does not imply causation. After all, what in the heck does the consumption rate of margarine in the United States have to do with the divorce rate in the state of Maine?

That said, the pre-Edgar and post-Edgar splits are rather dramatic.

PITCHESPABAOBPSLGISOBABIPwOBA
1003278.245.284.337.092.290.275
1442396.317.369.523.207.336.387

Those post-Edgar numbers are what we grew accustomed to from Cano when he was raking it to the short porch in Yankee Stadium instead of the more spacious Safeco Field. Cano's overall strikeout rate and walk rate did not move that much, but what he did with the baseball did.

This was his heat map (via BaseballSavant.com) prior to Martinez taking over as hitting coach:

This was the heatmap after Martinez became the hitting coach:

The overall spray chart does not look much different, but what is noticeably different on it is the distance the ball traveled, which is more noticeable when you look at the images in the below animation:

From a behavior standpoint, little changed with the coaching switch as Cano's approach at the plate shows negligible variance:

PITCHESPASWING%CONTACT%OOZ%SWSTR%
10032785081339.6
14423964981319.5

As we break down how he did in and out of the zone, some improvements develop. Cano, like any batter, is going to chase pitches out of the zone. When he did so early in the season, he was punished for it while later in the year, he did somewhat better.

PITCHESPABAOBPSLGISOBABIP
536101.114.228.136.023.175
791143.196.371.268.071.303

The bottom slash line isn't much to write home about, but at least he was getting on base and his batted balls in play had a decent chance at becoming a hit while earlier in the year, he was essentially a pitcher at the plate in those conditions.

The improvements on pitches within the strike zone are more noticeable.

PITCHESPABAOBPSLGISOBABIP
467177.312.316.439.127.331
651253.371.368.637.267.345

Cano was close to where he was in previous years within the zone early in the season, but the noticeable lack of thump can be traced back to the health issues and some mechanical issues at the plate (more on that shortly). A return to better health and some tweaks at the plate gave fantasy owners back their old Cano who punished pitches in the strike zone.

The mechanical changes at the plate were covered in depth in late June by Dan Farnsworth of Fangraphs. Farnsworth is a private hitting coach in Los Angeles who noticed some immediate changes in Cano's swing and provided several animations to outline what he described with his words. For me, the money paragraph comes in between the second and third animations:

The first is the way the hands take the bat to the ball. Notice how in the 2013 version, there is more of a loop to his hand path; the first move is down before they start moving forward. In the 2014 look, Cano's hands start pushing directly toward contact. This makes his swing much more level, which is not as conducive to hitting high line drives and deep fly balls.

I strongly encourage you to check out that piece because it gives you the mechanical context for what we witnessed with Cano statistically last season. Cano had sports hernia surgery a few weeks ago once the season ended, and while his days of being a top-25 player might be over, he still has top-40 potential if he holds the improvements of his swing into 2016 and his health is fully restored.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jason Collette
Jason has been helping fantasy owners since 1999, and here at Rotowire since 2011. You can hear Jason weekly on many of the Sirius/XM Fantasy channel offerings throughout the season as well as on the Sleeper and the Bust podcast every Sunday. A ten-time FSWA finalist, Jason won the FSWA's Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year award in 2013 and the Baseball Series of the Year award in 2018 for Collette Calls,and was the 2023 AL LABR champion. Jason manages his social media presence at https://linktr.ee/jasoncollette
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