This article is part of our Baseball Draft Kit series.
A player's profile can change significantly over the course of a year. Pitchers may add a new offering to their arsenal, team context can change due to a trade or move via free agency, and hitters may incorporate mechanical adjustments at the plate. In many instances, the biggest change with a player from year-to-year comes with additions to his injury history.
One challenge that arises every year during draft season is appropriately pricing players coming off of an injury plagued campaign. Fortunately, average draft position (ADP) data can be a useful guide in this regard, at least as a starting point in determining a player's expected draft day acquisition cost.
There are many sources of ADP data available each spring, but few are as useful as NFBC draft results. Since the NFBC runs a variety of leagues with significant entry fees, the owners involved are very well prepared for their drafts.
The focus here is on the best rebound candidates among the biggest fallers in ADP, comparing 2015 NFBC data to 2016 drafts. Data from this piece includes drafts completed before January 9, 2016.
Hanley Ramirez (-123.75) OF // 
2016 ADP: 146.33 | 2015 ADP: 22.58
No top-50 player from 2015 fell further than Hanley, whose season turned immediately after his collision with an outfield wall on May 4. While his defense in left field was problematic from Day 1, Ramirez was hitting .283/.340/.609 with 10 homers and 22 RBI (.949 OPS, 7:14 BB:K in 103 plate appearances) before sustaining
A player's profile can change significantly over the course of a year. Pitchers may add a new offering to their arsenal, team context can change due to a trade or move via free agency, and hitters may incorporate mechanical adjustments at the plate. In many instances, the biggest change with a player from year-to-year comes with additions to his injury history.
One challenge that arises every year during draft season is appropriately pricing players coming off of an injury plagued campaign. Fortunately, average draft position (ADP) data can be a useful guide in this regard, at least as a starting point in determining a player's expected draft day acquisition cost.
There are many sources of ADP data available each spring, but few are as useful as NFBC draft results. Since the NFBC runs a variety of leagues with significant entry fees, the owners involved are very well prepared for their drafts.
The focus here is on the best rebound candidates among the biggest fallers in ADP, comparing 2015 NFBC data to 2016 drafts. Data from this piece includes drafts completed before January 9, 2016.
Hanley Ramirez (-123.75) OF //
2016 ADP: 146.33 | 2015 ADP: 22.58
No top-50 player from 2015 fell further than Hanley, whose season turned immediately after his collision with an outfield wall on May 4. While his defense in left field was problematic from Day 1, Ramirez was hitting .283/.340/.609 with 10 homers and 22 RBI (.949 OPS, 7:14 BB:K in 103 plate appearances) before sustaining his early-May shoulder injury. In the 80 games he played after returning to the field May 9, he hit .239/.275/.372 with nine homers and 31 RBI (.647 OPS, 14:57 BB:K in 327 plate appearances). No longer eligible at shortstop, Ramirez opens 2016 as an outfield-only player, but he should quickly qualify at first base. Speed is less a part of his game than ever, but the park and lineup context are good enough to make him profitable at his 2016 price if he can avoid missing significant time with his reduced defensive responsibilities.
Jacoby Ellsbury (-75.37) OF // 
2016 ADP: 99:67 | 2015 ADP: 24.30
Oblique, hip, knee, and back injuries cost Ellsbury time on the field in 2015. Even with the benefit of playing half of his games at Yankee Stadium, Ellsbury is more likely to hit 8-10 homers than 15-plus. Prior to suffering the knee injury in mid-May, he was hitting .324/.412/.372 with 29 runs scored and 14 stolen bases through 37 games. Buying in should come with a prerequisite roster foundation of players with strong track records of health.
Adrian Beltre (-68.22) 3B // 
2016 ADP: 103.00 | 2015 ADP: 34.78
Beltre turns 37 in April, and he's become more susceptible to soft-tissue ailments over the past two seasons. The 2016 price seems fair when accounting for the increased injury risk and that he's posted ISO marks of .168 and .166 in the past two seasons while falling just short of 20 home runs. His home park, lineup placement, and the quality bats around him help provide a steady floor.
Yasiel Puig (-64.97) OF // 
2016 ADP: 89.00 | 2015 ADP: 24.03
Puig was limited by hamstring injuries throughout last season, playing in just 79 games and hitting for a career-worst .255/.322/.436 line. Subsequently, his struggles in 2015 should be taken with a grain of salt. He's still the Dodgers' best outfielder, and manager Don Mattingly is gone, which certainly doesn't hurt. It is important to note that Puig is one of three players under investigation by the commissioner's office under the league's new domestic violence policy for an incident at a Miami club in November. No charges were filed, but the new policy does not require criminal charges for a suspension to be issued.
Adam Jones (-49.21) OF // 
2016 ADP: 63.93 | 2015 ADP: 14.72
Very little changed with Jones' batted ball profile last season, but he was unable to maintain extreme health for the fifth consecutive season as he missed 25 games last season after missing just 16 from 2011-2014. The only big difference is the lack of stolen-base chances (he was 3-for-4 on the basepaths in 2015), which were gradually declining during his run as a top-20 overall pick anyway.
Anthony Rendon (-47.30) 2B/3B // 
2016 ADP: 71.13 | 2015 ADP: 23.83
The Nats downplayed Rendon's sprained MCL during spring training, but the ailment and a subsequent oblique strain suffered during his rehab assignment prevented him from making his season debut until June 4. Given the nature of his injury, the lack of stolen bases is hardly surprising, but Rendon failed to provide the same pop he showed in 2014, when he slugged .473 and hit 21 home runs. Ankle and shoulder injuries prevented him from being the first overall pick in the 2011 draft, as his college career at Rice was limited by a variety of ailments. Build in the expectation of 20-25 games missed before investing, and don't be surprised if he steals a half-dozen bags instead of rebounding back into double-digits, but the contributions in the other four categories should be well above average from a player retaining eligibility at the keystone for one more year.
Carlos Gomez (-48.89) OF // 
2016 ADP: 56.20 | 2015 ADP: 7.31
Gomez battled several injuries throughout last season and appears to be an excellent rebound candidate. One particularly encouraging sign is the increased aggressiveness he showed on the basepaths following the trade to Houston. After beginning the season 7-for-13 in stolen-base attempts through 74 games with the Brewers, Gomez was 10-for-13 over his 41 games with the Astros. Additionally, there are no red flags in his plate discipline or batted ball profile last season that suggest he's incapable of returning to 2013 and 2014 levels of production.
This article appears in the 2016 RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide. Order the magazine here!
