The Z Files: Making the Sausage Part Two, Pitcher Projections

It's important to review some differences between the hitting and pitching tool as pitching isn't as straightforward. To keep things simple, the expected ERA formula designed by researchers Dwight Gil and Tad Reeve will be employed. This projects ERA based on hit, home run, walk and strikeout rates. Granted, there have been improved means of estimating ERA, but for the scope of this discussion, this will suffice.

To use batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in our analysis, at-bats (AB) have to be part of the calculation. The catch is, the Gil and Reeve calculation uses innings in the denominator and the number of AB per inning pitched is different for every pitcher. As such, if you decide to work with the downloadable Excel tool, you'll need to set an innings factor to make the pitcher's WHIP match the projected WHIP based on his BABIP and other peripherals.

Like with the hitting tool, BABIP will be divvied into grounders, fly balls and line drives. We won't account for a pitcher inducing hard, medium or weak contact.

Like last week, plate appearances are the starting point with strikeout percent, walk percent and home run per fly ball (HR/FB) rate used to ultimately determine homers, hits, whiffs and walks.

Before we really dig in, it's best to be grounded with respect to plausible BABIP projections. We're at the point where the original contention that a pitcher has almost no control over his BABIP is considered a misnomer. Ignoring a pitcher's ability to avoid hard contact, by simply allowing more or fewer fly balls his BABIP can change as evidenced by the following table:

Sometimes it helps to see what others have done as we attempt to frame what we expect. Here's a look at the 10 best career BABIP for pitchers with over 1,500 IP since 1995:

Now let's evaluate some of last season's unexpected performances, a couple good and one not so good.

Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs

Here are 2015's vitals for the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner.

Arrieta was also a bit lucky with HR/FB. Edging that up to 9.0 (still below league average), we're now looking at 2.54/0.97.

Last season, Arrieta induced more grounders than ever. If he gives back only five percent of the worm burners, his numbers jump to 2.72/0.98.

We haven't even touched his strikeout and walk rate yet. Arrieta's strikeout percent has been consistent the last two seasons while his walk rate has been in decline, so there's a strong argument to be made we leave them alone. But for illustrative purposes, let's worsen each by a modest five percent. The surface stats are now 2.84/1.00.

RotoWire's projections is 2.55/0.99 while I have 2.80/1.08. Both can be fully supported and involve some give-back from last season's stellar campaign. Using the Excel tool helps visualize where the projection comes from and offers a basis for the small drop in skills and outcomes.

Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks

The veteran righty is moving to a more hitter-friendly park, which has some concerned. Let's be sensitive to that and raise his BABIP to .290 and HR/FB to league average. Greinke's ERA is now 2.91 with a 1.02 WHIP.

Penalizing the same five percent peripheral decline we did for Arrieta noses that to 3.01/1.04. RotoWire is more optimistic with ERA, checking on at 2.64/1.04 while I'm looking at a still outstanding 2.90/1.08.

Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox

Based on surface stats, last season was a huge disappointment for Sale owners. To wit:

So what went wrong? Without blaming it all on bad luck, Sale's BABIP and HR/FB were both elevated last season. Let's revert them both to league average. Sale now spins a 2.88/1.01.

It wouldn't be fair to ding Arrieta's and Greinke's skills so applying the same five percent tax renders the lanky lefty at 3.03/1.04. RotoWire pegs him at 3.06/1.04, while I expect even better, 2.74/1.05.

One last thing ...

Before calling it a day, let's debunk one of the myths with respect to calling a lower ground-ball rate better. There are instances where it's actually more advantageous to be a fly-ball pitcher.

Here's a table showing the WHIP and ERA of several types of pitchers:

If we improve the strikeout rate of the fly-ball pitcher, his ERA is close to that of the league average pitcher with a better WHIP. Dropping the walks helps the WHIP even more.

Here's the real key. Put the fly-ball pitcher in a big park and the homers drop along with the ERA. Of course, mimicking these improved peripherals for a ground-ball pitcher really drops his ERA too.

Keeping all the skills the same, sure, the ground-ball pitcher will have a lower ERA than the fly-ball pitcher. But it doesn't take extenuating circumstances for a better skilled fly-ball pitcher to display superior outcomes to a lesser skilled ground-ball pitcher -- especially in a venue that depresses homers.

Remember, WHIP is more stable than ERA. A strong argument can be tendered that it's better to build a fantasy staff around fly-ball pitchers in big parks because the ERA will be very low and then late fate decide ERA.

For those interested, click HERE for the pitching tool, along with last week's hitting tool.