Minor League Barometer: The Bell That Won't Ring

A wise man once said, "There are lies, damned lies and statistics." The first week of the minor league season is usually the appropriate time for my annual warning about small samples. It is very easy to overreact from a small sample. One day, one week, even one month of stats is not something to get riled up about. More than any other sport, baseball requires a long-term view as opposed to a short-term gut reaction. Trevor Story is not going to slug 100 home runs. Jose Altuve won't swipe 100 bases. While these are fun talking points, the reality is that patience and a view steeped in realism is the much better approach, particularly with forecasting prospects.

As such, take the statistics quoted for the following players with a grain of salt. However, know that behind the stats are the true rationales as to why these players are included in each particular section of the article. The statistics will not tell the whole story for quite some time.

UPGRADE

Alex Bregman, SS, HOU - If not for the presence of Carlos Correa at the big-league level, Bregman would really be gaining steam. As it is, he is slashing .361/.439/.722 with four home runs and 11 RBI through the first nine games of the season for Double-A Corpus Christi. The No. 2 overall selection in the 2015 draft, Bregman already has almost as many home runs this season as he did in 66 games last year. A polished hitter out of LSU, Bregman has an extremely advanced approach at the plate. Last year, he had 30 strikeouts to 29 walks over that 66-game span. In 2016, he has more walks (4) than strikeouts (3). His bat may already be MLB-ready, but finding a place for Bregman to play on the big-league roster may be the more difficult task for the Astros.

Raul Mondesi, SS, KC - Mondesi got a taste of the big leagues last season in dramatic fashion, with his big-league debut coming in the World Series. He's back in the minors to begin the 2016 campaign, as the 20-year-old shortstop continues to hone his craft. There's no reason for the Royals to rush him; that said, he has been aggressively pushed through the ranks, yet has not been overwhelmed at any level. While in the past he has shown more speed than pop, Mondesi already has three home runs through nine games for Double-A Northwest Arkansas. He's still striking out too much, but his average has not suffered too badly considering the lack of consistent contact. He's batting .314 to begin the 2016 campaign, and has already drawn five walks in those nine contests. By way of comparison, he drew just 41 walks in 191 games over the previous two seasons. Mondesi still may be just scratching the surface of his potential.

Andrew Benintendi, OF, BOS - Benintendi is a candidate to be an extremely fast riser in the Red Sox system. A first-round pick in last June's draft, he is a polished outfield prospect with an exceptional hitting approach at the dish. He's already tormenting High-A pitching, batting .342 with seven RBI through 10 games. Benintendi has fanned just three times during that time period. Sharing the diamond with Yoan Moncada and Rafael Devers could diminish the amount of publicity he gets just a bit, but it would be a mistake to sleep on him. The lefty has more power than his frame would lead you to believe, and he should see Double-A relatively soon.

Victor Robles, OF, WAS - Robles has the chance to be a special player. At just 18, Robles has a hitting approach well beyond his years. Through eight games at Low-A, Robles has more walks (8) than strikeouts (6). This combination of patience, vision and ability to make contact, particularly at such a young age, gives Robles an advantage over other young hitters. In other words, he already has a tremendous grasp of the strike zone, akin to the polished college players like Benintendi and Bregman mentioned above, who have far more experience. He has more speed than power, but does already have a home run this season to go with five thefts. As Robles matures, his power stroke should develop even further as well. With a big year, Robles should vault to the top of most prospect rankings, even if he won't make his MLB premiere for several years.

CHECK STATUS

Michael Fulmer, P, DET - Fulmer was almost an afterthought on the Mets, but after being traded to the Tigers in exchange for Yoenis Cespedes, he has emerged as the crown jewel of the Detroit system. Granted, the Tigers' farm remains rather lackluster, but that should not take away from Fulmer, who was tremendous in 2015. He posted a 2.24 ERA and 125:30 K:BB ratio in 124.2 innings, mostly at Double-A. Fulmer hurled 5.2 scoreless innings in his Triple-A debut last Tuesday, scattering four hits, walking one batter while fanning seven. Fulmer has four pitches, including a mid-90s heater, and has shown improved control over the last year. If his newfound control is legit, and he can stay healthy, Fulmer has the ceiling of a No. 2 starter for the Tigers.

Travis Demeritte, 2B, TEX - The Rangers appear set at second base for years to come with Rougned Odor in the fold. However, Demeritte has torched the ball to begin the season. The 21-year-old is hitting a .375 with five home runs, nine RBI and two steals through eight games for High-A. Demeritte certainly appears to already be taking advantage of the friendly hitting confines of the California League, though he did hit 25 home runs at Low-A in 2014. Still, he batted just .211 that year, and .232 in 2015, so it remains to be seen if he will hit for average. In addition, he served an 80-game suspension last season after testing positive for a banned substance, which raises another red flag.

Carlos Tocci, OF, PHI - It seems like Tocci has been around forever, but that is largely because he was signed at 16. He spent almost three years at Low-A. Now 20, Tocci's future projection may finally be coming into focus. He hit .287 as a teenager last season between Low-A and High-A, while also setting a career high in walks. He is still learning the art of stealing bases, though did manage 17 steals in 2015. Although he hit just four home runs in 127 games, Tocci's height at 6-foot-2 suggests that he still has room to fill out. Tocci is batting .300 to begin the year at High-A and could be on the verge of tapping into his potential.

Bradley Zimmer, OF, CLE - Zimmer gets the nod over teammate Clint Frazier because Zimmer is more patient at the dish and has more speed. Frazier might still have more upside and could be a better player when all is said and done, though. Frazier should also hit for more power. Still, the elder Zimmer appears a bit closer to the big leagues. The rash of injuries and suspensions for the big club this spring momentarily left whispers regarding Zimmer or Frazier seeing the big leagues early, but that did not materialize. Still, Zimmer has two home runs and two steals through the first eight games of the year for Double-A Akron, and his power/speed combination will make him an intriguing fantasy prospect. He's hit .225 in 58 games at Double-A, though, so he still has to prove he can make consistent contact at the higher levels.

DOWNGRADE

Josh Bell, 1B, PIT - Bell gets downgraded because he does not possess the power of a prototypical first baseman. He has not hit double-digit home runs in a season since 2013. Certainly home runs are not the only important statistic, but perhaps more than any other slot on the field, power is not only preferred but also expected. As a result, I have an issue including him among the elite prospects in the game because of this lack of power. That said, he hit .325 in 2014 and .317 in 2015, which is certainly nothing to scoff at. He also had as many walks as strikeouts in 2015 (65). Bell clearly has an impressive approach in the batter's box, but without the home runs, his fantasy value takes a slight hit. He's batting .190 through seven games at Triple-A to begin the year, though he did smack his first home run of the season Friday.

Franklin Barreto, SS, OAK - This is more of a gut feeling than anything else. I have never been as high on Barreto as others, though he has been pushed rather hard by the Athletics and is among the youngest players at Double-A. He skipped Low-A entirely and was fast-tracked to High-A in 2015. He did not disappoint, batting .302 with 13 home runs, 47 RBI and eight steals in 90 games. Still, he drew just 15 walks, and this lack of plate discipline may come back to haunt him at the higher levels. He is off to an extremely slow start at Double-A to begin the 2016 campaign. Barreto is just 4-for-29 (.138) with 11 strikeouts and one walk through eight games. Mind the small sample, of course, but this season may be a much better indication of what the future has in store for Barreto.

Jacob Nottingham, C, MIL - I'm notoriously tough on catching prospects in my player evaluations. While other pundits and scouts give catchers a pass on their batting statistics, I tend to grade them as compared with every other hitting prospect in the minors. Perhaps that is unfair, but from a fantasy perspective, it is important to know what to expect from future backstops. The 21-year-old Nottingham had a breakout season in 2015, slashing .316/.372/.505 with 17 home runs and 82 RBI in 119 games between Low-A and High-A. However, the 2013 sixth-round pick had not hit above .250 at any level prior to last season. Although he does have two home runs through the first eight games at Double-A, he is batting just .148 to begin the 2016 campaign. Was last season truly Nottingham's coming out party, or was it an aberration? I'd like to see a similar season in Double-A, perhaps the most crucial level in terms of development and figuring out where a prospect stands, before anointing him the next great catching phenom.

Hector Olivera 3B, ATL - It's a bit disingenuous even including Olivera on a minor league list, as the Cuban defector is 31. Technically, though, he still qualifies for most lists. A fresh start in Atlanta looked to be the answer for Olivera, but an off-field issue has cast doubt on his imminent future. Olivera was put on paid leave after an arrest for allegedly assaulting a woman at a Virginia hotel. The Aroldis Chapman and Jose Reyes cases show that Major League Baseball won't be reluctant to discipline players involved in domestic disputes. Chapman was suspended 30 games, and Reyes is expected to be suspended at least that many games. Thus far, Olivera has not lived up to his lofty promise and hefty contract, and this most recent issue will do nothing to endear him to fans, the organization and fantasy owners alike.