Minor League Barometer: Garrett's a Gem in the Making

The tricky part about prospect evaluation is that circumstances beyond a player's control influence their path. Usually this comes in the form of being blocked at the big-league level. Joey Gallo continues to bide his time in the minors because the Rangers have Adrian Beltre at the hot corner. In fact, Texas just signed Beltre to an extension. The Rangers do not want to move Gallo to another position. Therefore, despite playing in the bigs last season, and slugging seven home runs through the first 17 games at Triple-A this season, Gallo remains in the minors, with perhaps no end in sight to his stay in the minors.

Another factor, though much less widespread, is the elements. This comes in the form of park factors; in other words, in what stadium or location a player will play most of his future games, and how that will impact his production. Although most stadium factors are small, the development of pitching prospects in Colorado has become a particularly interesting case study. With the struggles of recent top-flight prospects like Jon Gray and Eddie Butler to adjust to the elements, how will that impact future phenoms?

Take Triple-A hurler Jeff Hoffman. A 2014 first-round selection by the Blue Jays, Hoffman came over to the Rockies in the Troy Tulowitzki trade last season. He has a 1.99 ERA and 19:9 K:BB through 22.2 innings for Albuquerque in the Pacific Coast league. Now, the PCL is a notoriously hitter-friendly league, but does that translate to simulating conditions of pitching at Coors Field? A more complex statistical analysis would be needed, but suffice to say, Hoffman may get downgraded simply because of the location of his future mound.

More prospect evaluation is on the horizon in this week's edition of the Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Jameson Taillon, P, PIT - The long road to recovery appears to be nearly complete for Taillon, who missed two full years in the minors due to a combination of Tommy John and hernia surgeries. Still just 24, Taillon is at Triple-A and finally dominating as a No. 2 overall pick should. The 6-foot-6 righty has a 1.54 ERA and 23:2 K:BB through 23.1 innings. The control has been perhaps most impressive, considering his live-game action has been so limited the last couple seasons. With Tyler Glasnow also dealing at this level, the Bucs could have two frontline starters available to add to the rotation at some point in 2016.

Ian Happ, OF, CHC - As if the Cubs needed another outfielder, Happ has been a beast for High-A Myrtle Beach in 2016. Happ has four home runs, 18 RBI and three steals through 22 games. That combination of speed and power is certainly intriguing from a fantasy perspective. His hit tool, however, including his plate discipline, may be his best attribute. He is slashing .313/.427/.550. Although he has 23 strikeouts in 22 games, Happ has also drawn 15 walks over that span. The switch-hitter and former infielder may not have one dominant asset, but he is stellar across the board and has not been overwhelmed at all in his first full season of professional ball.

Edwin Diaz, P, SEA - Arguably the top prospect in the Seattle system, Diaz is rolling through five starts for Double-A Jackson. He has a 3.00 ERA and 35:5 K:BB through 27 innings. The improved control is particularly noticeable for the 22-year-old righty, who has walked at least 40 batters in each of his previous two seasons in the minors. He can hit the mid-90s on the radar gun, but Diaz is at his best when working down in the zone and inducing ground balls. He has the ceiling of a No. 2 starter, assuming his newfound control is real.

Amir Garrett, P, CIN - Garrett's ascension to the top of the pitching prospect ranks has spilled into 2016. It started last season, when the former college basketball player posted a 2.44 ERA and 133:55 K:BB in 140.1 innings at High-A. At Double-A, Garrett has been even better through four starts. The 23-year-old has a 1.46 ERA and 25:4 K:BB through 24.2 innings. Opposing batters are hitting just .193 against him. Garrett is a hard-throwing southpaw who has shown a much better handle on his secondary pitches over the last season or so, most notably his slider and changeup. As long as he can continue to command the strike zone, the Reds could have a gem on their hands.

CHECK STATUS

Nick Gordon, SS, MIN - The first month of the season was not kind to Nick's brother, Dee Gordon, who was suspended for 80 games after testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs. However, Nick is putting up the best numbers of his brief professional career. The 20-year-old is batting .333/.363/483 through 21 games at High-A. He has one home run, which ties his season high from each of the last two seasons. Although he is not going to hit many long balls, it is important to note that Gordon does have six doubles and two triples as well in 87 at-bats. Gordon also has four steals over that span. He just seems to be scratching the surface of his potential, the next step of which will be taking a few more walks and evolving as a base stealer.

Matt Chapman, 3B, OAK - Chapman seems to be a forgotten prospect for the A's, but he is making some noise in 2016. Interestingly, Chapman also pitched in college at Cal State Fullerton, but was drafted in the first round in 2014 as a third baseman. He had a stellar spring training, hitting .295 with six home runs in 44 at-bats. He parlayed those strong power numbers into more home runs to begin the 2016 season. The 23-year-old is batting .259/.388/.593 with seven home runs, 14 RBI and two steals through 22 games for Double-A Midland. His power looks legitimate, as Chapman also hit 23 dingers in 80 games at High-A in 2015. He does have a bit of a checkered injury history, though. Chapman had a knee injury early in 2015, then was forced to undergo wrist surgery in October, which caused him to miss the Arizona Fall League. Assuming he can stay on the field, Chapman should continue to get more publicity.

Bobby Bradley, 1B, CLE - Bradley has raw power that you simply cannot teach. Even though he turned just 19 in 2015, he clubbed 27 home runs in 108 games at Low-A. The left-handed power stroke has proven equally dangerous to begin the 2016 campaign, with Bradley hitting six home runs and driving in 23 runs in 22 games for High-A Lynchburg. As with most young power hitters, though, Bradley continues to struggle with strikeouts. He was fanned a staggering 148 times in 108 games in 2015 and has been punched out 36 times through 22 games this season. However, strikeouts are not as big of a deal for a power hitter, and the strikeouts have been on the rise across the board in recent years across baseball. Bradley is also not afraid to work the count deep and draw a walk. He will need to prove he can hit for average at the higher levels, but his power potential is difficult to ignore.

Domingo Acevedo, P, NYY - Is Acevedo a future starter or reliever? That seems to be the big question among scouts and pundits alike. As for now, Acevedo is a starter, and he has been dominant. The Dominican right-hander has a 1.91 ERA and 32:4 K:BB through 28.1 innings for Low-A Charleston. Although the statistics look incredible, as they are, they do not tell the whole story. Acevedo is already 22, so he should be dominating at this level. Second, he is 6-7, and his delivery has a lot of moving pieces and parts. This tends to happen with taller hurlers. As a result, it becomes extremely difficult to repeat his delivery and find the same release point. He does have three pitches in his arsenal, though, including a fastball that can hit 100 mph on the radar gun, an emerging slider and a potentially hazardous changeup. The Yankees will keep him in the rotation for the time being, but he could end up going the Dellin Betances route as opposed to the Michael Pineda route.

DOWNGRADE

Jorge Lopez, P, MIL - Lopez had a breakout season in 2015, seemingly out of nowhere. Although he was a second-round selection in 2011, Lopez had battled massive control issues thereafter, failing to record an ERA below 4.50 from 2012-2014. He also proved vulnerable to home runs. Everything clicked in 2015, though, as he compiled a 2.26 ERA in 24 starts at Double-A, fanning 137 batters in 143.1 innings. Still, the warning signs were there; Lopez still walked 52 batters while surrendering nine home runs. Unfortunately for the Brewers, he has reverted back to his old form, posting an abysmal 8.79 ERA through four starts at Triple-A in 2016. His control problems have returned, as Lopez has a 16:13 K:BB in 14.1 innings. Opposing batters are hitting .365 against him, and he has already given up one home run. Was last season an aberration for Lopez? Although it is still early, the signs could be pointing in that direction.

Jacob Faria, P, TB - Faria is another pitching prospect with vastly different results in 2015 as compared to 2016. Faria was close to untouchable last year, posting a 17-4 record with a 1.92 ERA and 159 strikeouts in 149.2 innings between High-A and Double-A. Opposing batters hit just .197 against him. By contrast, he is 0-3 with a 6.12 ERA through five starts in 2016. Faria's wildness has been the chief culprit; though he has fanned 29 batters in 25 innings, he has also issued 16 free passes. This inability to locate plagued him last season as well, as he issued 52 walks on the year despite being able to limit the damage overall. Once again, at the higher levels, the additional base runners will always come back to haunt pitchers. The strikeout potential remains, but Faria must cut down on his walks to achieve future success.

Francis Martes, P, HOU - Martes made his way into the top 100 of many prospect lists in the offseason, but he has been torched in four games at Double-A in 2016. Martes has a bloated 9.00 ERA, including an 11:10 K:BB in 13 innings. The problem is evident; more walks equals longer innings and shorter outings. He pitched at three levels in 2015, but has clearly hit a wall at Double-A. His control was suspect at times even last year, but he was able to wiggle out of damage at the lower levels. That has not been the case at Double-A, and his troubles will only continue if he cannot find the strike zone. A move to the bullpen could also be in the cards.

Lewis Brinson, OF, TEX - A shoulder injury has cooled off Brinson's hot start to the season. Although he is back on the field, his numbers have come down considerably. Brinson is now slashing .258/.309/.419 with one home run, eight RBI and four steals through 17 contests. He is batting just .200 over the last 10 games. Brinson also has to deal with a bevy of outfielders and designated hitters alike ahead of him, including younger players in Nomar Mazara and Joey Gallo, and injured players like Shin-Soo Choo and Josh Hamilton on the mend. Although the Rangers did trade some competition when Nick Williams went to Philadelphia as part of the Cole Hamels trade, Texas is still stocked with hitting talent in the outfield. As a result, Brinson may need a trade or even further injuries to see the big leagues in 2016.