This article is part of our The Wheelhouse series.
One major oversight of the list (which was posted Tuesday night) was the ranking of Hector Rondon. As the Cubs' closer, Rondon is flashing elite skills this season, and he's seemingly increased his job security by a significant margin since the second half of 2015. This time of year, it's still perilous to rely solely on 2016 numbers when considering the bigger picture and while mapping out expectations.
To fully appreciate Hector Rondon, it's imperative to look back at the past calendar year. Using the FanGraphs Leaderboards, I built a custom list featuring the closer from all 30 teams (except Cincinnati, because J.J. Hoover breaks FIP). For reference, I also included Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances to get a read on how their skills stack up against the pool of relievers we rely on for saves.
Since May 5th of 2015, Rondon has the eighth-best FIP among the 32 relievers on the leaderboard. His supporting skills are very well balanced, as you might expect, and include a 9.7 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9, 53.1% GB%, and the results have been excellent: 1.59 ERA, 0.93 WHIP. Rondon is fast becoming an elite closer, worthy of being taken in the top-100 overall if we're drafting today, and
One major oversight of the list (which was posted Tuesday night) was the ranking of Hector Rondon. As the Cubs' closer, Rondon is flashing elite skills this season, and he's seemingly increased his job security by a significant margin since the second half of 2015. This time of year, it's still perilous to rely solely on 2016 numbers when considering the bigger picture and while mapping out expectations.
To fully appreciate Hector Rondon, it's imperative to look back at the past calendar year. Using the FanGraphs Leaderboards, I built a custom list featuring the closer from all 30 teams (except Cincinnati, because J.J. Hoover breaks FIP). For reference, I also included Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances to get a read on how their skills stack up against the pool of relievers we rely on for saves.
Since May 5th of 2015, Rondon has the eighth-best FIP among the 32 relievers on the leaderboard. His supporting skills are very well balanced, as you might expect, and include a 9.7 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9, 53.1% GB%, and the results have been excellent: 1.59 ERA, 0.93 WHIP. Rondon is fast becoming an elite closer, worthy of being taken in the top-100 overall if we're drafting today, and he should be among the first 10 off the board at his position right now. Pedro Strop and Adam Warren are quality bullpen arms as part of the late-inning bridge to the Cubs' closer, but Rondon's walk rate in particular puts him a cut above them as the preferred ninth-inning option.
Rondon is now ranked 89th overall, placing him eighth among closers, and he was previously placed just outside the top-150. Continue to monitor this page for changes, as adjustments in between monthly publications of the updated list will be available on a regular basis.
Other reliever based observations and changes include:
Lowering Andrew Miller approximately 30 spots on the overall list (he's 16th among relievers) with Aroldis Chapman's return from suspension next week. Of the relievers included on my custom leaderboard, Miller had the lowest FIP (1.92) and Kenley Jansen was the only other player to post a mark below 2.00. The drawback with rostering Miller is as follows. Without the benefit of saves, his ratios, strikeouts, and occasional wins are very helpful, but there is a limited ceiling on what a non-closer reliever can provide. His value increases in deeper leagues, where replacement level arms are lower in quality and more volatile as streaming options. With only a handful saves the rest of the way, Miller is worth approximately $8-10 in mixers, depending on the number of teams.
Here is the table referenced above (again, this covers games played between 5/5/15 and 5/4/16):
| Name | Team | W | SV | G | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | WHIP | FIP |
| Andrew Miller | NYY | 4 | 31 | 58 | 58.1 | 14.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 49.1 % | 12.8 % | 2.16 | 0.82 | 1.92 |
| Kenley Jansen | LAD | 2 | 46 | 65 | 63.1 | 13.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 36.6 % | 8.8 % | 2.13 | 0.74 | 1.97 |
| Cody Allen | CLE | 2 | 37 | 72 | 71.2 | 12.2 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 35.0 % | 6.0 % | 2.64 | 1.03 | 2.15 |
| Aroldis Chapman | CIN | 3 | 28 | 54 | 55.2 | 15.7 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 35.8 % | 7.1 % | 1.94 | 1.22 | 2.18 |
| Zach Britton | BAL | 5 | 37 | 65 | 65.0 | 10.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 78.7 % | 26.7 % | 2.08 | 0.97 | 2.20 |
| Trevor Rosenthal | STL | 2 | 45 | 64 | 64.0 | 11.7 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 48.8 % | 5.8 % | 2.25 | 1.30 | 2.22 |
| Arodys Vizcaino | ATL | 4 | 12 | 47 | 44.0 | 10.8 | 3.9 | 0.2 | 40.9 % | 2.6 % | 1.43 | 1.23 | 2.30 |
| Hector Rondon | CHC | 5 | 29 | 70 | 68.0 | 9.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 53.1 % | 7.8 % | 1.59 | 0.93 | 2.49 |
| Wade Davis | KC | 7 | 20 | 70 | 68.0 | 10.3 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 37.6 % | 4.4 % | 0.93 | 0.82 | 2.51 |
| Luke Gregerson | HOU | 5 | 31 | 61 | 59.0 | 8.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 63.3 % | 9.7 % | 2.90 | 0.93 | 2.56 |
| Craig Kimbrel | BOS | 4 | 40 | 63 | 61.2 | 13.9 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 44.7 % | 13.0 % | 2.34 | 0.96 | 2.57 |
| Mark Melancon | PIT | 3 | 53 | 79 | 76.2 | 7.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 54.7 % | 7.7 % | 2.00 | 0.90 | 2.72 |
| Dellin Betances | NYY | 3 | 8 | 73 | 81.0 | 14.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 45.3 % | 17.6 % | 2.00 | 0.99 | 2.73 |
| Jeurys Familia | NYM | 2 | 41 | 76 | 77.2 | 9.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 59.4 % | 11.4 % | 2.09 | 1.17 | 2.75 |
| David Robertson | CHW | 4 | 40 | 63 | 66.2 | 11.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 37.9 % | 13.0 % | 3.38 | 0.96 | 2.76 |
| Jeremy Jeffress | MIL | 5 | 7 | 70 | 67.0 | 8.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 58.4 % | 11.4 % | 2.69 | 1.27 | 2.78 |
| Jake McGee | COL | 1 | 13 | 49 | 47.0 | 10.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 38.7 % | 7.1 % | 3.06 | 1.09 | 2.91 |
| Ryan Madson | OAK | 2 | 11 | 72 | 64.0 | 7.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 51.7 % | 7.5 % | 2.11 | 1.05 | 3.01 |
| Roberto Osuna | TOR | 2 | 26 | 71 | 69.2 | 9.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 37.2 % | 9.9 % | 2.71 | 0.89 | 3.14 |
| A.J. Ramos | MIA | 2 | 41 | 70 | 67.0 | 11.2 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 43.0 % | 9.2 % | 2.28 | 1.07 | 3.20 |
| Jeanmar Gomez | PHI | 4 | 9 | 70 | 81.1 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 50.2 % | 7.0 % | 2.99 | 1.27 | 3.28 |
| Santiago Casilla | SFG | 2 | 36 | 64 | 56.0 | 10.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 43.3 % | 13.0 % | 2.73 | 1.16 | 3.37 |
| Francisco Rodriguez | DET | 1 | 40 | 61 | 56.2 | 9.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 45.9 % | 15.6 % | 2.70 | 0.95 | 3.41 |
| Brad Ziegler | AZ | 1 | 35 | 66 | 68.2 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 71.0 % | 9.7 % | 2.23 | 1.18 | 3.53 |
| Steve Cishek | SEA | 2 | 10 | 62 | 60.0 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 48.0 % | 7.5 % | 2.25 | 1.35 | 3.55 |
| Jonathan Papelbon | WAS | 4 | 28 | 61 | 64.0 | 7.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 45.7 % | 10.0 % | 2.67 | 1.11 | 3.59 |
| Alex Colome | TBR | 8 | 6 | 52 | 114.2 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 40.4 % | 8.3 % | 4.00 | 1.32 | 3.62 |
| Joe Smith | LAA | 5 | 7 | 73 | 69.2 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 52.2 % | 11.1 % | 3.88 | 1.21 | 3.67 |
| Shawn Tolleson | TEX | 5 | 44 | 76 | 73.1 | 8.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 43.8 % | 13.3 % | 3.07 | 1.20 | 3.78 |
| Kevin Jepsen | MIN | 5 | 16 | 76 | 71.0 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 44.1 % | 9.5 % | 2.66 | 1.23 | 4.07 |
| Huston Street | LAA | 4 | 36 | 62 | 61.0 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 36.8 % | 10.0 % | 3.25 | 1.15 | 4.09 |
| Fernando Rodney | SD | 6 | 14 | 66 | 61.2 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 50.6 % | 14.5 % | 3.79 | 1.28 | 4.63 |
A few other observations from looking at the data this way:
Alex Colome's one-year view is almost worthless, since he was starting games for a significant portion of last season. This season, since taking over as the Rays' closer in the absence of Brad Boxberger, Colome has posted excellent numbers including a 10.8 K/9 (30.0% K%), 2.7 BB/9 (7.5% BB%), .216 BAA, and 44.0% GB%. It's fair to wonder if the Rays will turn back to Boxberger as their primary closer once he's healthy enough to return to the mound later this month.
I am guilty of overrating Huston Street to begin the season based on job security. Yet again, injuries have put him on the shelf, but red flags with his skills have been apparent in the long view. Only Fernando Rodney has a lower FIP over the past calendar year on the list above.
Throwing out Cody Allen's April from a year ago goes a long way to show just how valuable he is. Given Zach Britton's current ankle injury, I would not begrudge anyone with Allen over Britton right now.
Perhaps the market is properly valuing Luke Gregerson now (it wasn't six weeks ago), but he has all of the tools to finish as a top-10 closer (8.7 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in the past calendar year, and his 15.7% swinging-strike rate ranks sixth in this group). I lament Ken Giles ownership in the NFBC Main Event every day.
Mark Melancon is going to break the hearts of a non-Pirates fan base next summer, if he can continue to ride his mediocre strikeout rate to a similar level of success between now and the end of 2016. I remain happy to be without shares of him.
Even though he's no longer looking over his shoulder at Keone Kela, Shawn Tolleson's 9.5% swinging-strike rate ranks 29th out of 32 on this list. Keep an eye on his velocity in his upcoming appearances, as he has lost more than a mile per hour on his fastball, slider, and cutter since this time last week. He's lost more than 2.5 mph on his changeup during that span. It could be granular noise, but his margin for error is smaller than I previously thought.
Jake McGee's average fastball velocity tumbled to 93.82 mph in September last season, and he's been much closer to that in April (93.88) and May (94.32) than he has been to his pre-September marks (95.69 and up) of a year ago. My interest in buying low is tepid at the moment, and he is probably a forced hold.
Updated Closer Ranks (Yes, Cincy was intentionally omitted again...overall rank in parenthesis)
1. Kenley Jansen, LAD (45)
2. Wade Davis, KC (46)
3. Aroldis Chapman, NYY (68)
4. Craig Kimbrel, BOS (69)
5. Zach Britton, BAL (70)
6. Cody Allen, CLE (71)
7. David Robertson, CHW (88)
8. Hector Rondon, CHC (89)
9. Jeurys Familia, NYM (109)
10. Trevor Rosenthal, STL (110)
11. Luke Gregerson, HOU (111)
12. Roberto Osuna, TOR (131)
13. A.J. Ramos, MIA (132)
14. Mark Melancon, PIT (133)
15. Arodys Vizcaino, ATL (183) – Vizcaino v. Andrew Miller is a coin-flip with Chapman return.
16. Alex Colome, TAM (207) – Rank based on possibility that he'll keep the job.
17. Ryan Madson, OAK (208) – Doolittle has eaten into a few of Madson's save chances.
18. Jeremy Jeffress, MIL (209)
19. Jake McGee, COL (220)
20. Jonathan Papelbon, WAS (221)
21. Francisco Rodriguez, DET (222)
22. Santiago Casilla, SFG (223)
23. Shawn Tolleson, TEX (224)
24. Steve Cishek, SEA (275)
25. Jeanmar Gomez, PHI (276)
26. Brad Ziegler, AZ (277)
27. Huston Street, LAA (278)
28. Fernando Rodney, SD (341)
29. Joe Smith, LAA (342)
30. Kevin Jepsen, MIN (NR)
