Mound Musings: Building an Ace

There are so many variables that figure into a starting pitcher's makeup and then, somehow, contribute to his immediate and long term performance. Therefore, one of the most important things for fantasy owners is determining what they might expect from a pitcher either in their rotation now or one being considered for a spot to replace an injured pitcher or an underperformer. It's not always easy, but it doesn't have to be a complete guessing game. Let's take a look and see if we can sort it out:

Use your assessment skills to assign pitchers to anticipated tiers.

When I scout a pitcher, I assign him to tiers. Note, those tiers can be plural because I will often assign a current tier and, if I see significant room for realistic improvement, I might assign a higher future tier. For example, a young pitcher might have the makeup today to be Tier 3, but there may be factors that I feel could lead to an ultimate ranking of Tier 2. In redraft leagues or a league where I'm looking for immediate help, that future ranking might not be very important, but when working on a keeper or dynasty rotation, it can be extremely valuable.

The tiers I use are roughly based on the 20-80 scouting system, where a grade of 80 for some aspect of the pitcher's game would rank him among the very best in baseball, and a grade of 20 would probably eliminate him from ever reaching the major leagues, let alone reaching that level and then contributing to a fantasy team. Both extremes are very rare. Pitchers with a few 80 grades are superstars or probably soon will be, and those at the other end of the spectrum will likely never play baseball professionally.

So, based on the tiers, what might you expect from a pitcher? If a pitcher is ranked Tier 1 you might look forward to owning a guy who can lead your staff (and the staff of his major league team). This is a true "ace" like Clayton Kershaw, and I will cover the criteria for this ranking below. Obviously, Tier 1 pitchers in the major leagues are not likely to be available on the waiver wire. They went in the early rounds of your draft. However, there may be pitchers of this caliber coming up through the minor leagues.

Tier 2 pitchers are solid starting pitchers who will help your fantasy team. They take a regular turn, typically perform at a useful level with frequent quality starts, a good WHIP and ERA, and a solid strikeout rate. These are usually your bread-and-butter pitchers who comprise the majority of most successful fantasy staffs. Interestingly, pitchers who can perform at this level while being underestimated by your competitors are often key targets for drafts, trades and waiver wire moves. Aces rarely surprise, but these guys might sneak in unnoticed and provide significant value.

Pitchers ranked Tier 3 make up a huge slice of the pie. They're probably ensconced in a major league rotation and have the ability to provide some quality innings, and they might even do it with some regularity, but there's generally a flaw. They may be inconsistent, throwing the occasional bombs; they may have major problems maintaining their release points, leading to higher WHIPs, high pitch counts and shorter outings; or maybe they just don't miss enough bats to help in the strikeout category and/or squirm out of jams when things get dicey. For fantasy teams, they could be possible matchup candidates, temporary fill-ins for injuries or, if necessary, back-of-the-rotation options.

Then we come to Tier 4 (there's technically a Tier 5 in my system, but I don't pay much, if any, attention to those pitchers, as they don't look to be viable candidates to start in the majors and will probably end up being low leverage, long relievers if they carve out a role at all). Tier 4 starters usually have some skills that can make them at least mildly interesting, albeit not someone – at least right now – I would want in my rotation today. Avoiding Tier 4 pitchers is critical. These are the guys who can do more harm than good. A Tier 4 pitcher can sabotage your stats and erase the positive stats from your better starting pitchers. In a lot of cases, you would be better off with an open rotation spot.

Here are the primary criteria for ranking possible starting pitchers:

• Repertoire: Always the first consideration. At the major league level, a pitcher needs at least three quality pitches he can throw pretty much any time. Tier 1 starters have at least three, and at least two of those are plus-plus (way above average) or plus (above average) offerings with the other pitches average or better. This gives them options, and options keep the opposing hitters guessing. Tier 2 pitchers also have at least three quality pitches, albeit not at quite the same level as their Tier 1 counterparts. Once you dip into Tier 3, these pitchers might have three pitches, but usually at least one is "fringy" or below average. Tier 4 pitchers typically fall into the two-pitch category, which makes them vulnerable to better hitters and often to hitters of the opposite hand. Additionally, the lower tier pitchers might struggle with command of one or more.

• Velocity/Stuff: There's a lot of focus on velocity – justifiably so – and the top tier pitchers routinely sit in the mid, or better yet, upper 90s with their fastballs. That kind of hop covers for a big percentage of mistakes. Just keep in mind, major league hitters can generally crush a fastball even in the triple digits, especially if it's straight (little movement) or they're waiting for it (lack of consistency with the other pitches). Therefore, you want to see great movement on all of the pitcher's offerings, and appropriate movement, or break, on off-speed stuff. The best pitchers will frequently change the hitter's eye level, being comfortable moving up and down, as well as inside and outside with a variety of pitches, while also being adept at changing speeds without hinting that is coming. You want to see a difference of at least 10 mph (or preferably more) from fastball to off-speed.

• Command: First, be sure you understand the difference between "command" and "control" – terms that are sometimes used interchangeably. Control means the pitcher generally throws pitches in the strike zone. Command means they throw pitches to specific spots within the strike zone. A strike in the middle of the plate will often leave the premises quickly, so the top tier pitchers are capable of displaying consistent command with a variety of pitches. Watch the catcher. Where does he set up? Does the pitcher routinely hit the target he provides? If the catcher looks like a soccer goalie diving back and forth behind the plate as he sets a low and inside target while the pitch sails up and away, that pitcher lacks the necessary command (and maybe even control). Command can come with experience and better mechanics, but it can take time.

• Mechanics: This is a little more difficult to assess, especially if you aren't accustomed to analyzing this aspect of pitching. The goal is to establish mechanics that allow for a repeatable delivery – one that the pitcher can repeat again and again, making it easier to achieve a consistent release point, while also making it harder for the hitter to determine what type of pitch is coming. The flip side of this coin is deception. It could be a high leg kick, pitching from varying arm angles, turning your back on the hitter, or in some way hiding the ball longer before it leaves the pitcher's hand. These can all be useful to the pitcher, but they often make that repeatable delivery more challenging. A smooth, seemingly effortless delivery is typically the best recipe for both an effective and healthier pitcher. And — a word of warning here – beware the deception-only newcomer. One of the biggest mistakes made is adding a new pitcher who enjoys some success early on with the basis of that success being a deceptive motion. If the pitcher you're watching is seemingly effective without the other criteria here – repertoire, velocity/stuff and command, it probably will NOT last. Major league hitters will learn to see through the deception and the roof will collapse.