Mound Musings: Touching All the Bases!

It's a pretty long season, and I almost always have something to say about almost everything related to pitching, but sometimes it's nice to just freewheel a bit and hit on those topics that might not have enough substance on their own to warrant a full column. Many times these subjects are based on questions from readers – more on that in just a bit – or the topic might be so specific that it's not diverse enough to explore in great detail. Whichever category, I want to take the opportunity to perhaps spark some conversation. That said, let's get to it:

The Musings are designed to be interactive – Regular readers are probably aware of this, but in case you weren't, let me underscore this aspect of the Musings. If you look at the bottom of any week's Mound Musings, you'll typically see a long list of comments from readers, and my responses to those comments/questions. That's exactly the way I like it. As much as I enjoy writing the weekly column, the best part of it is chatting up pitching with readers. Do you have a topic you'd like to see examined? Is there a pitcher (or pitchers) you'd like to discuss? Do you perhaps have a different fantasy pitching strategy you feel sets you apart? If you have a question or comment, throw it out there. I'll always answer, usually straight away, and I would invite comments from other readers as well. Just keep in mind, this is an opinions column, we all have one, and we have to respect those of others!

Draft day is nearly upon us – Draft day is always a highlight for me. Next week's edition of Mound Musings may be a day late (on Friday instead of its usual Thursday) so I can have an opportunity to weigh in on who went where and when. These kids may be of slightly more interest to players in keeper or dynasty leagues, but it's enjoyable to track the progress of a favorite arm, and in these days of pitching wastelands, quality young pitchers can come out of college and be on a major league mound in no time. You want to know what to expect when that happens.

This should be an interesting draft. Honestly, at this point I don't see anyone I would look at as a "franchise" starter, however, it seems to be deeper than many drafts with quite a few pitchers who appear capable of becoming useful. Just a brief preview, I am particularly interested in a couple of college pitchers – A.J. Puk and Connor Jones, who I think might be the closest to major league ready in this class, and a couple of big high school arms – Jason Groome (possibly the first pick off the board) and Riley Pint, who has an electric arm that some major league team will be more than happy to develop. There are several others, but we'll start there and see where the road leads.

One category above all others – One of the most frequent questions I'm asked would be what category (or categories) do I look for first when setting my draft preferences or targeting a trade partner? The answer might, or might not, surprise you. It's strikeouts. Please understand, every pitcher on my roster won't be a strikeout machine – as much as I might like them to be – but the guys I feel can ring up the punchouts will typically drift to the top of my draft board. Strikeouts rarely result in bad things for a pitcher. In fact, they can overcome a lot of bad luck and iffy location on pitches to previous hitters. Obviously, you'd prefer the strikeouts not come with too many walks, and high strikeout totals can lead to higher pitch counts and shorter outings, but it's usually worth it. If I can acquire a guy like that at a discount, all the better.

Let me give you a very good example. I heavily targeted Yu Darvish in every league I participate in this season. Darvish, if healthy, is clearly a top-10 pitcher in most leagues, but he hadn't pitched since late 2014, and it was widely known he wouldn't be ready until mid-late May this year. There could be delays, there could be some rust, and I had to bet he would be pretty much the same pitcher he was before blowing out his elbow. Those were risks I was willing to take. How often can you acquire a pitcher at a significant discount who's capable of netting 200-plus strikeouts in two-thirds of a season? I will add that I play almost exclusively in keeper leagues, which only enhances the value, but even in a redraft league, Darvish was a very viable target. Look for guys like that.

The "Do No Harm" principle – I actually covered this in answer to a question in a previous edition of Musings, but I think it's worth talking about again. The basis of the "Do No Harm" principle is understanding that bad pitching can create havoc for the rest of your starting rotation. In my example, I looked at the numbers of a "rotation" with just two pitchers – Clayton Kershaw and Alfredo Simon. At the time, the combined WHIP and ERA for that pair was 1.42 and 5.02 respectively. In essence, Simon had erased all the good things Kershaw had contributed. You can't afford a Simon, or someone like him, on your staff. It's unlikely you'll be able to stack a rotation with nothing but top of the rotation talent, but be judicious when filling those bottom slots, and alwaysbe looking to upgrade. Remember, an upgrade helps in two ways: You get the benefit of the numbers posted by the better pitcher, andyou get the benefit of not having to absorb the ugly numbers provided by the lesser guy.

Finish it – When you're ahead the hitter belongs to you. Is there anything worse than watching a pitcher repeatedly get ahead in the count, but then allow a hard hit? That's a big red flag for me, and I watch for it. I'm not referring to the batter throwing his bat at a ball and flipping a hit between three fielders, I'm talking about a rope into the gap when the hitter was down 0-2 or 1-2 in the count. The next few times you watch a game, consider your outlook when the count swings to the pitcher's favor. Are you ready to log an out in the scorebook, or are you nervously watching to see what happens? If you're watching Jake Arrieta, you can hit that scorebook – and don't be afraid to use ink. However, if you are watching Ubaldo Jimenez, there are still plenty of possible outcomes to fear. Your expectations when watching tell you a lot.

There you have it – a few rambling thoughts on what to watch for, who to watch and sometimes overlooked factors when evaluating pitching for fantasy teams.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• I really like a lot of things I see in Jake Odorizzi. Just a little better command could move him up a notch on the food chain. He gets behind too often leading to high pitch counts and short outings, and he'll throw "get me over" pitches that end up over the fence. He's close. Keep an eye on him.

• The Mets feel like they might have discovered a flaw in Matt Harvey's delivery, and the results of his last start suggest they may be onto something. He tossed seven shutout innings, allowing just two hits, and the White Sox had no answer for his stuff. I was convinced it was mechanics, and this could be it.

• Time for a quick pop quiz. Who leads American League starting pitchers (regular rotation) in batting average against? A hint, Chris Sale is second. It's the Blue Jays' Marco Estrada with a microscopic .177 so far this season. A high 90s fastball is nice, but location and movement make a big difference, too.

• One of my biggest disappointments has been Arizona's Patrick Corbin. His velocity is down a tick, but I don't think that's it. Corbin appears tentative on the mound, and that's not like him. He's served 11 home runs in 65-plus innings leading to a 4.96 ERA. I'm not giving up, but he needs to lock it in soon.

• I guess I'm as guilty as the next guy. I'm not sure I have ever mentioned White Sox' southpaw Jose Quintana. He's overshadowed by that other lefty on the south side – his name is Sale – but Quintana is also a quality starter. He doesn't have Sale's stuff, but he throws quality strikes and keeps the ball in the yard.

• I don't put too much stock in a pitcher's first career start, so Julio Urias getting roughed up a bit wasn't a big deal. Now things are evolving – with Alex Wood going on the disabled list and Kenta Maeda banged up, Urias could get a longer look. He's still not going to pile up innings, but he could help you short term.
  

The Mets' Jeurys Familia got roughed up over a couple of appearances last weekend, but he has bounced back. Former closer Addison Reed has been pitching very well of late and would be the likely alternative, but Familia should have a pretty long leash right now. The closer situation in Colorado could get interesting as this season progresses. Jake McGee is doing a good job, but he's likely to be a trade target as the deadline approaches. Jason Motte is back from the disabled list, but wouldn't they be better off seeing how closer-of-the-future Miguel Castro would handle things? The Brewers are welcoming back Will Smith, but he's likely to step into a set-up role unless Jeremy Jeffress struggles at some point. With Huston Street back, Joe Smith will return to his set-up role and continue to serve as the caddy for the oft-injured Street. Just days after being activated, Brad Boxberger is headed back to the disabled list, which means more time for Alex Colome. Let's see, the Yankees give you Dellin Betances in the seventh, then Andrew Miller in the eighth, before you get Aroldis Chapman in the ninth. That's ridiculous. If they aren't in the hunt later this season, there could be a huge feeding frenzy of teams trying to acquire one of those guys.

Note: Mound Musings is scheduled to return 6/15 as Brad is not available this week due to a medical issue. Next week's column will focus on the 2016 first-year player draft.